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Sunday, December 01: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

December 1, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Runnuer; 3-Wound Tight; 4-Colosi; 11-Hermaphrodite

Forecast: The opener is a deep and contentious first-level allowance turf miler that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Hermaphrodite is an intriguing French invader still eligible to non-winners of two despite having several stakes placings in her resume and with Timeform ratings that are superior to par for this level. She makes her U.S. debut facing the boys for J. Sadler with Johnny V. taking the call, and although her extreme outside draw is less than ideal she might simply out class this field. Wound Tight keeps firing bullets and can be relied on for another honest effort. Beaten in photo finishes in each of his last two starts, the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding is fast on figures and overdue for some luck. Big Runnuer has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and lands the rail, so we suspect the lightly raced son of Stormy Atlantic will be forwardly placed throughout while benefitting from a ground saving trip. His speed figures are strong and there’s a possibility that he’ll route better than he sprints. Colosi is a first-off-the-claim for D. O’Neill and may improve enough to at least get a piece of it. Toss him in somewhere on a ticket or two.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Sunny Dale

Forecast: Sunny Dale is back in the J. Hollendorfer barn and should finally find the winner’s circle in this maiden special weight sprint for older fillies and mares. Freshened since July, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was worn down late in a fast, highly rated affair by next out (and future stakes performer) First Star when last seen and if she returns in that kind of form she should be home free. At 8/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower, she may be too short to play in the straight pool, but we can use her as a no-value, rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Hit the Road; 3-Kanderel; 7-Goliad; 11-Smooth Like Strait

Forecast: Here’s another difficult affair with several possibilities. We’ll use four and hope to get a decent price home. Kandereland Goliad give trainer R. Mandella two bullets to fire and both must be considered major players. When they breeze together on the main track in the morning Goliad always looks much the best, but Kanderel clearly is much more effective on turf than he is on dirt and showed it with a romping, highly rated debut maiden win in late September. Bug boy J. Velez retains the mount and should have the son of Candy Ride in the second flight within striking range throughout. Goliad missed in a photo in a good overnight event over this course and distance two weeks ago and today will race with Lasix while being reunited with “win rider” F. Prat. The son of War Front, like his stablemate, should draft into a good spot behind the leaders and then have his chance to quicken through the lane. Hit the Road was well-backed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf but simply couldn’t kick it in when set down in the final furlong. This is an easier spot, and a repeat of his win in the Zuma Beach Stakes two races back puts him right there. Smooth Like Strait is improving with racing and has the pedigree to get a mile, though the outside post does him no favors. He’ll need another forward move to be a threat, but at 12-1 on the morning line the son of Midnight Lute is worth including at least as a backup.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Instagrand

Forecast: Instagrand returns to competition for the first time since failing at even money in the Pat Day Mile-G3 at Churchill Downs in early May. He’s had more than his share of issues, but his recent works indicate that he’s back on the beam for new trainer D. Chatlos (a former assistant to the colt‘s previous trainer, J. Hollendorfer) and over a track the saw him win the Best Pal S.-G2 by more than 10 lengths last year the son of Into Mischief should completely out class this second level allowance field. There’s really not much we can do with him at 6/5 on the morning line other than to make him a short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Cleopatra’s Strike; 10-United

Forecast: United missed by a head to leading Horse of the Year candidate Bricks and Mortar in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last month and if he can come close to repeating that type of performance today he’ll win the Hollywood Turf Cup-G1. Regular jockey F. Prat stays aboard the son of Giant’s Causeway, who showed a liking for the local lawn when winning his only previous outing at Del Mar during the summer season. Cleopatra’s Strike returned to winning form with a victory in the John Henry Turf Classic-G2 at Santa Anita in late September and a strong, healthy series of workouts in recent weeks should have this veteran son of Smart Strike primed and ready for another career-top effort. We don’t quite see him beating United, but if that one for whatever reason fails to fire his best shot the P. D’Amato-trained gelding can provide a bit of insurance as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Tiz Toffee; 5-Road Test

Forecast: Tiz Toffee exits a series of tougher races and appears to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form in this $12,500 main track claiming miler for fillies and mares. The daughter of Sidney’s Candy is most effective on the front end but can press and pounce if the race flow dictates. The concern is her failure to deliver the goods as the favorite in her last two outings, so as a backup we’ll also use Road Test. The veteran mare actually finished third in the same race that Tiz Toffee was fourth in last time out and she’s a prior winner over the Del Mar main track while also arguably being the most dangerous of the closing types.

RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Significant Form; 5-Toinette; 7-Got Stormy

Forecast: Got Stormy missed as the favorite in her last pair but certainly performed admirably in defeat, a second-place finish in the Woodbine Mile-G1 and then a runner-up effort to Uni in the Breeders’ Cup Mile Turf last month. Back with fillies and mares today and obviously tackling an easier group, the M. Casse-trained filly deserves top billing and at 5/2 on the morning line actually may offer good wagering value at that price if you can get it. Significant Form, winner of three of her last four though not against Grade-1 competition, seems ready to tackle the big girls following a triple-digit Beyer score in the Noble Damsel S.-G2 in late September at Belmont Park. She has an ideal stalking style and Johnny V., who fits her perfectly, flies out to ride her. Toinette always has been a cut below the best in her division but she earned a career top number when winning a lesser affair at Santa Anita last time out and should fire another big shot again today.

RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Chipper; 6-Summer Fire

Forecast: This juvenile sprint restricted to state-bred runners didn’t come up particularly strong, so we’ll include the two most logical contenders in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Chipper displayed promise when an excellent second in his debut in early October but was far back when, as a maiden, was pitched too high in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes the following month. Back where he belongs today, the son of Street Boss looks hard to beat if he repeats the quality of his first outing. Summer Fire, a solid runner-up vs. similar over this main track three weeks ago, can be a major threat if he produces any kind of forward move. The R. Hess, Jr.-trained son of Creative Cause switches to P. Lopez and with continued improvement could earn his diploma without causing much of a stir. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tiger Dad; 7-Blackout; 11-Wildman Jack

Forecast: Wildman Jack has fired big shots in each of his four career starts and the son of Goldencents should be formidable again despite his extreme outside draw in this five-furlong dash for first level allowance sprinters. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has been quite unlucky – he missed by a nose vs. similar competition in his last two starts – but he’s very fast on numbers and really won’t have to improve at all to beat this field. R. Bejarano stays aboard and knows him well. Blackout is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and could be dangerous from off the pace. Tiger Dad removes blinkers after finishing in the frame in each of his five most recent starts. Not nearly as fast on pure numbers as Wildman Jack, the son of Smiling Tiger nonetheless appears to be a genuine type and is worth including on a ticket or two.

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Big Time Grammy; 7-Reducta; 8-Awesome Ella

Forecast: Reducta makes her U.S. debut for high-percentage connections and rates top billing based on her second place finish (in a 21-runner field) at Cork in Ireland in mid-August in a race that earned her a pretty decent Timeform rating, one that is good enough to beat maidens on this circuit. F. Prat, who we assume had his choice of at least two other logical contenders, opts for the English-bred daughter of Kodiac. We’re going to assume that she’s fit and ready. Awesome Ella is progressing nicely with experience and seems likely to produce another forward move. A closing second over this course and distance last month, the daughter of Mr Speaker picks up P. Lopez and should be running on strongly late. Big Time Grammy is getting the hang of things and is another likely to continue her improving pattern. A willing third vs. similar last time out, the T. Yakteen-trained filly switches to J. Talamo and should make her presence felt from off the pace in the final furlong.