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Saturday, December 14: Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

December 14, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Just a Bit Sassy; 4-Maries Melody; 9-Bratouttahell

Forecast: Just a Bit Sassy is an intriguing first-timer in a soft spot with an inside draw from a capable outfit with a healthy work pattern. She certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act at this modest maiden claiming level so let’s try a fresh face in an open fray. Maries Melody is bred to run long on grass (Point of Entry) and sports the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern that always catches our eye. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, she’s a contender. Bradouttahell tries another drop in class, makes a favorable jockey switch to E. Jaramillo, exits a productive race and might improve if held up early and allowed to run late. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere.

RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Untitled; 5-Cross Court; 10-Bomoseen

Forecast: Here’s another wide open maiden affair, this one for Florida-bred juveniles. Cross Court has a series of eye-catching workouts on his resume and lands J. Ortiz, Jr., so the son of Cross Traffic gives every indication of being a live item in an unclassified affair. Untitled also shows a series of promising recent drills for a barn that is capable with young stock and if he can leave cleanly from the rail the son of Khozan could be a major player for a live jockey-trainer combo (Jaramillo/Nicks). Bomoseen seems the best of the known element and earned a career top speed figure when a strong runner-up (while four lengths clear of the rest) over a sloppy track at Monmouth Park in late October. L. Saez and K. O’Connell always make a formidable team so we suspect this Twirling Candy gelding will be very competitive. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-R U Lucky; 5-Man With a Plan

Forecast: R U Lucky continues to improve with racing and with another forward move today appears capable of extending his winning streak to three. A winner over this course and distance when breaking his maiden two runs back, the son of Itsmyluckyday must pick up 8 lbs. but hardly should be inconvenienced with the switch to J. Ortiz. Two recent sharp breezes since raced point to another top effort. Man With a Plan earned a competitive speed figure when second sprinting on grass two races back and on the basis of that race is the one to fear most. Second at even money when beaten by R U Lucky last time out over a muddy Gulfstream Park main track, the J. Pinchin-trained colt certainly has a right to make amends today when returning to his preferred surface. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to R U Lucky.

RACE 4: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Sue’s Monster Baby; 4-Filly Jean King; 5-Shyza

Forecast: Shyza earned a strong speed figure when graduating in convincing fashion vs. maiden $50,000 foes at Gulfstream Park West in an extended sprint last month and appears quite capable of repeating in this starter optional claimer stretching out to a one-turn mile. The daughter of Cairo Prince likely has plenty of further improvement in her and offers considerable value at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Sue’s Monster Baby, unbeaten in two starts but with speed figures that will need to be improved upon, has the proper style for this trip and for the first time is being protected in a sign of confidence. The J. Navarro stable is off to a dreadful start this meeting but with one of this barn’s go-to riders (I. Ortiz, Jr.) taking the mount this filly could get things jumped started. Filly Jean King is the morning line favorite (2-1) after exiting a series of much tougher races. She’s had eight chances and her numbers have stagnated so we don’t consider her entirely trustworthy but you may find the need to use her on a ticket or two for protection.

RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Sayyaaf; 10-J Beresford Tipton

Forecast: Sayyaaf stretches out to a mile for the first time after a strong runner-up effort in a hot sprint at Keeneland in mid-October. The C. Brown-trained colt is quick sort that surely will try gate-to-wire tactics, and with “win rider” J. Castellano returning we’re expecting the son of Sepoy to establish control and keep on going, but at a price shorter than his morning line of 9/5. Beresford Tipton has the blinkers off angle that we like and looks the most dangerous of the closing types. The lightly-raced son of Animal Kingdom seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick, and with some help up front could make a run for it in the final stages.

RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Bronx Beauty; 3-A Bit of Both; 4-Lady’s Island

Forecast: Lady’s Island is the quickest of the quick and should be tough to catch. The winner of eight of her last 10 starts seems the solid choice in this year’s edition of the Sugar Swirl Stakes, a Grade-3 affair over six furlongs for fillies and mares. She’s a career five-for-seven over the Gulfstream Park main track and seems primed for another major effort. A Bit of Both, another course specialist (four wins in five starts) likely will inherit a pace-stalking position and have every chance to wear down the leader when the pressure is turned on late. She earned a career top speed figure when winning a stakes over the all-weather surface in Ocala last time out, and while better will be needed today the daughter of Paynter might have it in her. Bronx Beauty is yet another win machine (8-for-14) and has numbers last summer that put her in the hunt. She’s probably worth using on a ticket or two as a back-up.

RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 1-Mitchell Road

Forecast: Mitchell Road has much in her favor in the My Charmer Stakes, a listed stakes over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. She’s the likely controlling speed from her favorable rail drawn, exits a series of infinitely tougher races, and has never been worse than second in four career starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course. Freshened since early October and training like she’s fit and ready for W. Mott (strong with layoff runners), the daughter of English Channel is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and may very well go a lower as a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 9-Baccarat Fashion

Forecast: Baccarat Fashion is, as expected, vastly improved since joining the P. Walder barn and today the daughter of Old Fashioned receives the opportunity to stretch out to a one-turn mile as the logical controlling speed in the Rampart S.-G3 for older fillies and mares. Based on running style, pedigree, and the giant recent career top speed figure she just earned when upsetting a good allowance field by more than eight lengths at Gulfstream Park West in her last outing in October, she certainly won’t be 11-1 again any time soon. Two recent sizzling workouts over the local main track indicate she’s ready for another monster effort. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Channel Cat; 8-Admissions Office

Forecast: Nine furlongs is a bit shorter trip than what Channel Cat prefers, but after facing Grade-1 company in five of his last six starts including a respectable seventh (beaten less than three lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup turf last time out the son of English Channel should greatly appreciate the class relief in this year’s renewal of the Ft. Lauderdale S.-G2. A two-time winner over the local turf course, the T. Pletcher-trained colt projects to settle into a comfortable mid-pack spot and then have his chance to exert his superiority from the quarter pole home. We’ll take the 3-1 morning line gamble if it presents itself. Admissions Office is a deep closer that is pace and traffic dependent but with some help up front and good racing luck the B. Lynch-trained son of Point of Entry could make some noise late. We’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to Channel Cat.

RACE 10: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Prince Lucky; 6-Bodexpress

Forecast: Bodexpress demolished a softer field with a career top triple-digit Beyer speed figure at Gulfstream Park West last month and must be given a chance to extend his winning streak to three despite tackling a salty bunch of older horses in the Harlan’s Holiday S.-G3 over a mile and one-sixteenth that will conclude at the short finish line. It’s possible he’ll be sent to the front, though the option is there to stalk and pounce should Flowers of Lisa , drawn inside of him, flash more early zip to the clubhouse turn. Runner-up to Maximum Security (with Code of Honor more than three lengths behind him) in the Florida Derby-G1 earlier this year, the G. Delgado-trained colt appears to be at least as good now if not better than he was then. Prince Lucky is strictly the one to beat. Unbeaten in two starts over the Gulfstream Park main track – both stakes wins earned triple-digit Beyer speed figures – the Corinthian gelding is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail post and have dead aim every step of the way. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll give Bodexpress a very slight edge on top.

RACE 11: Post 5:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 8-King Orb; 11-My Point Exactly

Forecast: The finale is a middle distance turf affair for $16,000 claimers. We’ll double the race and hope that’s enough; you can spread deeper if your budget allows. King Orb is back at his proper level and beats this field with a repeat of his race before last over this course and distance two runs back. All four of his career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn and the R. Chrichton-trained gelding is a versatile type that can be effective on the front end or from well off the pace. My Point Exactly is drawn a bit farther outside than we’d prefer but he’s an old pro with seven prior wins over this course and is back in two weeks after a solid third place effort with a good figure vs. similar in a hot race for the level. At 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a few tickets.