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Saturday, January 18: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

January 18, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Uncontainable; 4-Jamming Eddy; 7-Jet Set Ruler

Forecast: This entry-level state-bred turf miler matches familiar faces that are tough to separate, so let’s try a fresh face from a clever outfit with speed figures that fit. Uncontainable joins the Miller barn (31% with first-off-the-claim plays) and if he can transfer his dirt form to grass (or possibly even improve upon it) the son of Acclamation could generate a quick return on the $12,500 investment. Jet Set Ruler may be distance-challenged at this nine furlong trip and is winless in six starts over the local lawn but he’s usually in the thick of things and should be within range when it counts at the head of the lane. Jamming Eddy has good tactical speed and in a race that projects to be slowly run early the son of Square Eddie projects to enjoy a soft stalking journey. We’ll have tickets including all three in our rolling exotics and then press keying Uncontainable on top.

RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Takethediamondlane; 4-Adorably Sweet; 6-Time for Suzzie

Forecast: Takethediamondlane is lightly-raced with improving speed figures and upside most of the others don’t have. The daughter of Bodemeister returns to the main track for her first outing since early November, sports a bullet workout six days ago, and should find herself on or near the lead throughout. Adorably Sweet broke her maiden in a moderate spot but did so leaving from the rail (not normally the place to be at Del Mar) and the daughter of Richard’s Kid has every right to improve with experience while retaining F. Prat. Six-time winner Time For Suzzie has a big look with a repeat of her nice win two runs back over this track and distance. She’ll be doing her best work from off the pace. Preference on top goes to Takethediamondlane but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Just Grazed Me

Forecast: Just Grazed Me is 6/5 on the morning line and may go lower in this state-bred turf sprint stakes for older fillies and mares. Perfect in two starts over this course and distance, the daughter of Grazen has looked very sharp in the morning for her first start since early November so we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained mare to run her race. She’ll be too short to play in the straight pool but we can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Nonno’s Polaris; 10-Papa Tony

Forecast: Nonno’s Pride moves up to the maiden $50,000 level after finishing second in both of his previous outings when racing for $32,000. The raise in class shouldn’t be an issue – on pure speed figures he fits nicely at this level – so let’s go with the H. Palma-trained colt while expecting another forward move in his first start since early November. We’ll also include Papa Tony on a ticket or two in our rolling exotics. The Papa Clem gelding is comfortably drawn outside after hitting the board in each of his last three starts and has steadily rising speed figures, though still considerably lower than what ‘Pride has achieved.

RACE 5: Post 2:36 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Baja Sur; 2-Fashionably Fast

Forecast: Baja Sur must overcome the rail but the lightly-raced son of Smiling Tiger is a winner of five of six career starts, his only defeat coming when second to Fashionably Fast in a stakes dash at Fresno two runs back. Earner of a triple digit Beyer when winning the Oakland Stakes over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields in mid-November, the B. Wright-trained gelding has been kept on edge in the interim and regular jockey J. J. Hernandez flies down to retain the mount. Fashionably Fast is the one he’ll have to contend with again. The Lucky Pulpit gelding seeks his fifth straight score, and a recent bullet workout over the Santa Anita main track indicates he’s ready for another major effort. Let’s go with Baja Sur to turn the tables today on ‘Fast but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Ward ‘n Jerry; 5-Wound Tight

Forecast: Ward ‘n Jerry has really gotten good lately and earned a career top number when third beaten a neck in the Hollywood Turf Cup-G3 at Del Mar in early December in his most recent outing. It’s possible that he needs a mini-marathon trip (or farther) to have his best chance but in his presence form we suspect he can shorten to today’s nine furlong distance and still be highly effective. From the rail under good grass rider U. Rispoli the M. Puype-trained veteran should enjoy a ground-saving journey and have every chance. Wound Tight will be the controlling speed and given that type of trip might be capable of staying the distance. He’s relatively lightly-raced, has solid numbers, and must be respected.

RACE 7: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Club Aspen; 9-Fast Enough

Forecast: Fast Enough was visually impressive winning at first asking in an abbreviated sprint for juveniles over the Santa Anita main track in May but then disappeared. The son of Eddington returns for the capable R. Becerra barn and has trained like he’s fit and ready for what appears to be a rather ambitious assignment. However, he’s bred for the distance and may be a cut above this state-bred group, so let’s try him on top at what should be a nice price. Club Aspen is worth including in rolling exotic play as well. The C. Lewis-trained colt looked good winning the King Glorious S. at Los Alamitos last month while earning a career top speed figure, and in a race that should have an ample amount of early speed the late-running son of Clubhouse Ride should have every chance to produce the last run.

RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Bulletproof One; 5-Warren’s Showtime; 7-Midnight Sunrise

Forecast: It’s questionable whether Bulletproof One can carry her speed a mile but if she’s ever going to be able to, it’ll be in her first try. One thing we do know is that the daughter of Idiot Proof likes grass, as she proved when finishing an excellent second vs. the boys in the Speakeasy Stakes over five furlongs during the fall meeting. She’ll have an easy lead here if she wants it, so at 8-1 on the morning the gamble is reasonable. Warren’s Showtime defeated open company when winning the Surfer Girl S. over this course and distance last fall and if she’s returns as well as she left the C. Lewis-trained filly should be tough to contain in the final furlong. Midnight Sunrise will be a huge price – she’s 20-1 on the morning line – but it won’t be surprising if she outruns her odds. Certainly bred to run long (Einstein) and with improving numbers in each start, the Bay Area invader is fresh from a nice maiden score and could step forward again for a capable outfit. Toss her in somewhere.

RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Tigre Di Slugo

Forecast: Tigre Di Slug was visually very impressive winning his debut at Del Mar in November, overcoming a poor start and traffic trouble on the turn to win going away with a powerful speed figure. He gets an extra furlong to work with today, retains F. Prat, and with any kind of decent trip from the rail should be along in plenty of time despite the one-level raise in class. At 7/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.