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Saturday, January 25: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Xpressbet

January 25, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Ci Voleva; 8-Lofty

Forecast: The main contention is this state-bred sophomore filly turf dash appears on the also-eligible list, so check for late scratches to see if one of the “Sally’s” draws in. Among those in the main body of the race, Lofty looks best of a modest lot. Away since the fall when she was fifth in a turf miler, she returns to a sprint and may be capable of tagging whatever speed there is. Interestingly, she was a voided claim for $50,000 when second in her debut at Del Mar and has been protected ever since. Ci Violeva is bred to win early (Grazen), hails from a clever outfit, and certainly won’t have to be any champion to act with these. She was entered in a similar race two weeks ago but didn’t draw in from the also-eligible list. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but not with any great degree of enthusiasm.

RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Remember to Smile

Forecast: Remember to Smile is the top pick in this five-runner bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint pretty much by default. The Smiling Tiger filly drops from maiden $50,000 to the $20,000 league and has numbers that should be more than good enough to win this modest affair. However, she won’t offer any wagering value, so you can use her as a rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Conquest Cobra; 4-Fire When Ready

Forecast: Fire When Ready was a voided claim for $20,000 in early November and returns for $12,500, not an encouraging sign, but if he has one good one left he’ll probably beat this field. The Hess, Jr.-trained gelding is a two-time winner over the local main track – both victories under today’s pilot R. Bejarano – and in a field without much speed he projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Conquest Cobra lacks early speed and is stuck on the rail but has back form that makes him a major player if he’s feeling up to it. Today’s extra half-furlong works in his favor and with two prior wins over the Santa Anita dirt he’s proven he likes this track. We’ll prefer Fire When Ready on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post 2:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Stackin Silver; 5-Include the Tax
Forecast: Stackin Silver pulverized a maiden $50,000 claiming field at Del Mar in mid-November and returns protected in this starter optional claimer for high percentage connections. He’s fastest on pure numbers and from the rail could easily find himself as the controlling speed. Logically, he’ll be hard to beat. Include the Tax is bred to improve with distance and has steadily rising speed figures. The M. McCarthy-trained son of Include overcame a bit of traffic to graduate in good style last month and should be able to produce a forward move. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Stackin Silver on top.

RACE 5: Post 2:36 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Shandling; 5-Of Good Report; 9-Proud Pedro

Forecast: Proud Pedro was in a tad tough when a closing but non-threatening sixth in the Mathis Bros Mile-G2 opening day but this drop into the first-level allowance ranks should allow the French-bred colt to return to top form. On pure numbers he’s good enough to win and if he can manage to negotiate a good trip from his outside draw and have decent early fractions to compliment his late running style the L. Powell-trained sophomore should be along in time. Shandling is stretching out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics. We’re not totally convinced he really wants to route, but if he’s ever going to stay two-turns it’ll be in his first try. Of Good Report won a $40,000 claimer in good style at Del Mar in November and returns protected over a course he’s won on in the past. The Twirling Candy gelding needs to improve his numbers but the winner of 4 of 12 knows where the wire is so we’ll include him on a ticket or two as well.

RACE 6: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Kleen Karma; 2-K P Whirlwind

Forecast: Kleen Karma hadn’t trained like much prior to her debut but to her credit she was able to win at first asking with a speed figure that makes her the one to beat right back in this somewhat shallow starter optional claiming main track miler for 3-year-old fillies. She’s certainly bred to handle the extra distance (Clubhouse Ride) and the C. Lewis barn is in good form right now. K P Whirlwind beat a soft maiden claiming field at Los Alamitos in convincing style and with a similar effort today should be competitive despite the class hike. However, preference on top goes to Kleen Karma and she’ll get the bulk of our play in the exotics and in the straight pool.

RACE 7: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Cosmo; 6-War Path; 9-Media Blitz

Forecast: It’s never easy to win at first asking over nine furlongs on grass but the N. Drysdale barn has done it in the past and may do it again with Cosmo, a promising son of Distorted Humor with a series of strong workouts that should have him fit and ready. He’s been trained to sit back and produce a late run and that’s the type of ride he’ll surely get from good grass jockey D. Van Dyke. There aren’t any world beaters in the field, so let’s go with the fresh face. War Path flashed improvement with a decent third over this course earlier this month and with today’s extra furlong to work with the son of War Front should continue his improving pattern. Media Blitz, freshened since the fall, could be a better type this time around for S. Callaghan and is another that should enjoy the nine furlong trip. His debut over a mile at Del Mar last summer – he was beaten a nose despite a slow start and a wide trip – charts very well with these.

RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Captain Scotty; 3-Flagstaff

Forecast: Flagstaff has won four races from nine starts, never by more than three-quarters of a length, so he’ll probably make hard work of it trying to justify his favorite’s role. The J. Sadler-trained colt should settle in the second flight and then have his chance to wear down the leaders when it matters in the final furlong. Captain Scotty could be the quickest in the field, though he may have to deal with St. Joe Bay, who doesn’t usually wait around for anybody. If these two hook up along the way, Flagstaff’s task should be quite a bit easier.

RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Eddy Forever

Forecast: Eddy Forever needs patient handling – he didn’t get it last time and faded under pressure in the final furlong – and we’ll assume that strategy will be employed today in this nine furlong turf affair for maiden 3-year-olds that appears to be the easier split of the seventh race. The B. Baffert-trained colt continues to impress in the morning and both of his prior grass races were decent, so there should be no excuses today for the son of Medaglia d’Oro. In a race in which nothing else inspires, we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.