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Sunday, February 09: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

February 9, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-I Love Romance; 5-Drift Away

Forecast: Drift Away, always most effective as a late-running sprinter and a winner of three of six career starts over the local lawn, drops a notch following a nice win, not always the healthiest of signs, but this barn runs them where they can win so we suspect the veteran daughter of Congrats will fire another big shot. F. Prat stays aboard and fits her perfectly. Bay area shipper I Love Romance, first or second in 12 of 19 career starts, should display good early speed from the rail and be a strong factor every step of the way. She’s effective on any surface and while a tad shy in the speed figure department still must be respected. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Drift Away.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Constitutionaffair; 4-Arc Nation

Forecast: Constitutionaffair was a voided claim for $30,000 when third beaten a neck in a two-turn even and today is raised to the maiden $50,000 level in a sign of confidence while shortening to seven furlongs. If he produces a forward move – and we suspect he will – the S. Callaghan-trained colt should be tough to beat. Arc Nation blew a two length lead in mid-stretch when second in a maiden $30,000 sprint last month but earned a pretty good speed figure in the process and figures in the fray right back. In a five runner field, these are the two that will get most of the play and both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Big City Bane; 5-Sea of Liberty

Forecast: Big City Bane and Sea of Liberty finished two-three in a similar maiden state-bred turf miler here last month and meet again in a six-runner field that lacks depth. We’ll give ‘Liberty a very slight edge on top due to his good tactical speed and a sharp recent training track drill, though ‘Bane may have a bit more room to improve with just three prior outings and speed figures that continue to rise. In a race we’ll otherwise pass, both should be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Accountability; 4-Winning Element

Forecast: Winning Element returns to his claim level, catches a below par field for the level and switches to F. Prat. It all adds up to a short price (he’s 4/5 on the morning line) for a consistent gelding that has finished first or second in seven of 15 career starts. Accountability removes blinkers in his third start off the layoff and drops to a realistic level. He’s never been keen on winning but off his best race he fits so we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver in race that lacks wagering appeal.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Arctic Roll; 3-Desert Oasis

Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, an allowance optional claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Desert Oasis looked good breaking her maiden last summer at Del Mar and then disappeared. She’s trained well enough to be fit and ready off the bench for N. Drysdale while picking up J. Rosario, so we’ll put the lightly-raced daughter of Medaglia d’Oro on top over the recent restricted claiming winner Arctic Rose. The latter earned a career top speed figure in victory over this course and distance last month and if she can turn in two alike – never her strong suit – the A. Lerner-trained mare certainly can win right back despite the class hike.

RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Buyback; 4-Zucchera; 5-Sybil’s Kitty

Forecast: Zucchera didn’t break any stopwatches when earning her diploma in a maiden $30,000 claimer during the fall meeting over this track and distance but she’s trained pretty well for her comeback and it’s encouraging that R. Baltas chooses to protect her in this starter’s allowance event. The lightly-raced daughter of Tapizar appears improved, picks up J. Rosario, and may be worth a play at or near her morning line of 4-1. Sybil’s Kitty, also in the Baltas barn, is lightly-raced and progressing as well and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. She exits a pair of sprints and could find herself as the controlling speed. Buyback won a bottom-rung maiden claimer here last month and earned a speed figure that makes her a fit at this level. She should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance.

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Nadal

Forecast: Nadal was one of the most impressive debut maiden winners we’ve seen since, well, Justify, and he’s come back to train splendidly since that highly-rated monster performance here last month. The B. Baffert-trained son of Blame is 4/5 on the morning line and there really isn’t a gamble at that price but it’ll be interesting to see how he matches up with the Eclipse Award winning Storm the Court, who will be making his first start since his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win last November and who we suspect may be a race away from being at his best. It’s a good race to watch and enjoy.

RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Noble Hearted; 2-Nu Pi Lambda; 7-Sweet Devil

Forecast: Sweet Devil was given a run in her debut sprinting and ran better than the line will show, as she found her best stride too late without being knocked about and then galloped out strongest of all past the clubhouse turn. This stretch out to nine furlongs seems is no piece of cake but this could be a nice filly and we’ll gamble that she’ll be up to the task. Nu Pi Lambda, third in the same race ‘Devil exits, stretches out for the first time, is the speed of the speed and we’ll take them as far as she can. Noble Hearted is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her rail draw and has every right to continue to improve with experience. On pedigree, she should have no trouble with the mile and one-eighth trip. Preference on top goes to Sweet Devil but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.