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Picks for Thursday's Gulfstream Park $203K Late Pick 5 Carryover

by Jeremy Plonk

February 18, 2020

A $203,727 carryover awaits horseplayers in Thursday’s late pick five at Gulfstream Park, a President’s Day holiday leftover that merits wagering attention. Gulfstream’s final five Thursday will be Races 6-10 and field sizes line up 8x9x9x8x10 in an attractive manner. There are no skinny fields and no absolute brain-busters. Scheduled off time for Race 6 is 3:33 pm ET … give or take a cup of coffee.

Let’s dig into the players I’m considering and the pertinent Betmix Angler statistics that helped formulate the opinion.

Race 6

  • 1-R Kiss Em Goodbye (8-5): Morning line favorite has never been on turf. Georgina Baxter 31% with turf sprinters over 103 starters. The mark is 29% with those moving dirt-to-turf sprint, similarly strong. Favorites have dominated this claiming turf sprint division at the meet (49%), but I trust the favorites more in a similar Race 8 test.
  • 4-Take Charge Again (10-1): Missed only 1 exacta in 6 starts on dirt and tries turf first time. Jane Cibelli hits only 14% going dirt-to-turf sprint and 1-for-19 on that move at Gulfstream. But filly fits with these runners.
  • 7-Stormy Nelly (7-2): Third against similar class over this course/distance in December when getting hotter pace to rally into than likely today. Move to Irad Ortiz Jr. won’t hurt chances.
  • 5-Little Bella (6-1): Nothing flashy about debut win, but switches to Paco Lopez, a top-notch turf sprint pilot (25% since 2013). At least we know this filly handles turf.
  • 6-Cavernndchipmunks (4-1): Best US races have been turf sprints among soiled form in other spots.
  • 2-Susie’s Memory (10-1): Wildcard has been away 1-1/2 years but working fast for return and fitness not as requisite at 5 furlongs on grass like most trips.

Race 7

  • 3-Worth Avenue (3-1): Class dropper makes noteworthy rider change second time off the claim for high-percentage barn. Jockey-trainer combo 6: 1-3-1 since last April, always live.
  • 4-Fancy Sox (5-2): Kenneally $10,000 claim in Kentucky met tougher in decent local turf try and fits with these back on dirt. Mare won moving turf-to-dirt in November.

Race 8

  • 4-Sir Seamus (2-1): Expect him to be favored and chalk is hitting 49% in turf sprint claimers at the current meet.
  • 9-Youshouldbesolucky (9-5): Morning line favorite the other logical contender in a race that plays logically.
  • 5-Mr. Edgar (7-2): Alternate inclusion only if one of the key players scratches. Lacks finishing bid, but may improve for new barn.

Race 9

  • 2-Freudian Finish (10-1): Brendan Walsh barn has been on fire at Gulfstream, going 12: 5-2-0 since January 3. Among those are a 15-1 winner off a 233-day layoff as well as a 12-1 runner-up.
  • 5-R Prerogative (5-2): Speed always dangerous and the rule of thumb states you never fear just 1 other runner in a potential duel.
  • 8-My Sarasota Star (4-1): The second likely speed player works her way into the equation for the same reason and scenario as R Prerogative. If one of these two doesn’t break, the other could be loose on the lead.

Race 10

  • 8-Bulldat (10-1): Trainer Terri Pompay is 6: 3-1-0 since September moving dirt-to-turf at Gulfstream and has hit a strong 23% (7-for-30) with this move locally in maiden claiming races since 2014. In what looks like a weak field with no finishers, this stretch-out sprinter may just lead the chase.
  • 2-Raspberry Ballet (5-2): On past races, she simply looks faster and classier than these. But you’re taking a shorter price on an 0-for trainer and 0-for jockey at the meet. To single such a tandem also puts all of your faith in running lines that are dated prior to mid-September. But favorites are a stout 46% in maiden claiming turf races at the meet, so don’t get too crazy.

50-cent Pick 5 Ticket

Race 6: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 7: 3, 4
Race 8: 4, 9
Race 9: 2, 5, 8
Race 10: 2, 8

Total Ticket Cost: $72.00