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Friday, February 28: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

February 28, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: View Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Mongolian Legend

Forecast: Mongolian Legend adds blinkers for the first time, lands the favorable rail, exits a series of much tougher races and has speed figures that make him a logical short priced favorite in this maiden $40,000 middle distance affair. As an eight-race maiden he’s probably not one to trust, but if it’s not him, then who? We’ll make him a no value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Point Hope; 2-Classy Atlantic

Forecast: This non-winners of three $35,000 claiming turf sprinter should boil to the two inside runners, both of whom are making their first start for new connections following a claim. Point Hope was haltered by M. Glatt (32% with a strong flat-bet profit) and can be expected to improve with the switch to F. Prat and the turn back to a sprint. The veteran Irish-bred mare appears capable of producing a winning late kick. Classy Atlantic is a two-time winner over the local lawn and has a good stalking style for this distance on this course. She goes for the Cerin barn, which usually has a high percentage of winners sporting the first-off-the-claim angle, and though she could do no better than third when favored last time out she exits an open affair and should find this restricted group well within her abilities. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll then have extra tickets keying Point Hope on top.

RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Malibu Cat; 6-Raneem

Forecast: Raneem shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time while returning to the main track, so the B. Baffert-trained filly shouldn’t have any excuses after failing as the favorite in a stronger straight maiden event last month. She’s always been vulnerable in the final furlong but figures to stick much better in this league. We’ll put her on top but not with any degree of confidence. Malibu Cat, sixth in the same race Raneem just finished fifth in, also should enjoy the lesser competition and must be given a strong look. She retains F. Prat, and with just three prior starts may have bit more improvement in her than her main rival. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that probably is best left alone.

RACE 4: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: C+
Single: 5-Indy Jones

Forecast: Indy Jones is 1-for-16 lifetime so there’s no way you can back him with any degree of certainty but the Temple City gelding has numbers that are good enough to beat this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 field and just finished a close third (albeit in a four-runner race) in a similar event earlier this month. If he can produce any kind of forward move – or just turn in the same type of effort – he can win. You can reluctantly use him as a rolling exotic single or just sit it out.

RACE 5: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Commanding Chief; 7-Border Town

Forecast: Border Town and Commanding Chieffinished third and fourth, respectively, in a recent similar straight maiden turf router and both figure in the fray once again while stretching out to a mile and one-eighth. Neither should be inconvenienced by the extra distance and both should be included in rolling exotic play, though ‘Town, with five fewer starts and adding blinkers for the first time, has more room for improvement and therefore deserves top billing.

RACE 6: Post 2:58 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Winning Bells; 2-Sweet Sassafrassy; 5-Dorita’s Lemon

Forecast: Winning Bells, second while more than six clear of the rest in a similar bottom-rung maiden claimer last month, probably won’t have to do much more today to graduate in only her third career start, so we’ll put the daughter of Dialed In on top and hope that she leaves cleanly from the rail. Sweet Sassafrassy, well-backed at 3-1 in her debut in the same race Winning Bells exits, flashed speed before weakening to wind up a distant third, but she has a right to be fitter and stronger today. It wouldn’t be surprising to see patient handling employed today. Dorita’s Lemon is a first-timer with moderate works. If she run just a little bit, she can act with these.

RACE 7: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Kazan

Forecast: The speed types appear suspect in this turf sprint for $50,000 older claimers so let’s go with the best of the closers. Kazan, strictly a router throughout his career, has been away since last August when he was voided claim, but we suspect the D. O’Neill-trained gelding will fire a good shot fresh following a series of solid works at San Luis Rey Downs. With excellent turf rider U. Rispoli taking the call, the veteran son of Shanghai Bobby figures to be rolling in the final furlong and with good racing luck should get up in time. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tejon5-Seizetheday Rexy

Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden $50,000 state-bred sprint that drew just seven starters. Seizetheday Rexy seems the best of the known element after finishing a solid runner-up in a similar affair last month and with another forward move today should be hard to deny. The Pratt-O’Neill combo always hits at a high percentage and this gelding projects to enjoy a soft pace-prompting trip and have every chance to separate from the pack when the pressure is turned on. Tejon is a Square Eddie gelding making his first start for the always-dangerous R. Baltas barn and shows a reasonable work tab at San Luis Rey Downs that indicates some ability. The rail is no bargain but in a modest field he’s worth tossing in.