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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for 3/7/20

by Jeff Siegel

March 7, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Santa Anita
Saturday, March 7, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: View Video

Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File

RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Colombian Gold; 8-Sunriser; 10-Danceformunny
Forecast: The opener is an inscrutable maiden claiming turf router for fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep but if you can afford to use more, go right ahead. Sunriser, away since the fall but hailing from a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners, attracts top grass jockey U. Rispoli and can win if she returns as well as she left. The daughter of City Zip will be doing her best work from off the pace. Colombian Gold has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle and is stretching out in her second race off a long vacation for a high percentage outfit while making a pivotal jockey switch to F. Prat. A strong recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs provides further evidence that the P. Miller-trained filly is ready to step forward. Danceformunny is stuck way outside but is another dropping into a claimer for the first time and lands J. Rosario. Her seventh place finish vs. tougher two runs back over this course and distance charts well with these, so at 6-1 you have to toss her in.

RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-American Code; 9-Drop the Chalupa
Forecast: American Code has trained like a top prospect for B. Baffert and though he’ll probably not be blazing quick from the gate the son of American Pharoah should have every opportunity to produce a winning late bid at this extended sprint distance. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and there should be value at that price if you can get it. Drop the Chalupa, listed at 12-1 on the morning line, has worked a bit better than the clockings will show and is worth long shot consideration. The R. Ellis-trained son of Liam’s Map lands the cozy outside post and if he breaks reasonably well he’ll have every chance from a stalking position. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with clear preference on top to American Code.

RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Sapphire Silk; 8-Rocking Redhead; 9-Affiance
Forecast: Here’s a highly-competitive maiden turf sprint for fillies and mares with several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Affiance has done some good work in the a.m. for R. Mandella, attracts F. Prat, and as a daughter of More Than Ready is bred for speed and grass. She’s worked like she’s plenty fit, so if she leaves cleanly she should be major player from start to finish. Sapphire Silk hasn’t turned in any fancy times in her morning trials but she moves like a quality filly and being by Verrazano she’s another from the More Than Ready sire line. There could be real wagering value at or near her morning line of 8-1. Rocking Redhead was entered a few weeks back but was scratched at the gate when she refused to load. The daughter of Hard Spun is another promising newcomer that has a good look at a price. Let’s hope she agrees to participate this time.

RACE 4: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Flagstaff; 3-Roadster
Forecast: Flagstaff missed at 4/5 when he was unable to take advantage of a perfect trip in the Palos Verdes S.-G2 earlier this season but we’ll give him a chance to make amends at this seven furlong distance that should be ideal for his stalking style. A one-paced grinding type, the son of Speightstown seems likely to benefit greatly from a pace flow that matches two committed front-running types, St. Joe Bay and McKale, to set things up nicely for him. Roadster, beaten a nose by Flagstaff over this track and distance during the fall meeting, seems most effective as a late-running sprinter and gets ideal conditions today while turning back in trip. The quicker the early fractions, the more dangerous he’ll be. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Flagstaff.

RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-River Boyne; 3-Got Stormy
Forecast: Got Stormy failed to hit the board at 20 cents on the dollar at Tampa Bay Downs last month in her seasonable debut and if she doesn’t step forward today the same thing might happen. However, we’ll trust the trainer (M. Casse), who says the real version will show up today and recent works in Florida indicate the top class mare is ready to bounce back. Her brilliant runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile over this course and distance last fall is more than good enough to handle this lesser field. River Boyne, always partial to the local lawn, regained his winning form with a dominating score in the Thunder Road S.-G3 last month and has trained well since. We’re expecting a similar effort today, but if Get Stormy brings her “A’ game he’ll be running for second money. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press keying Get Stormy on top.

RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Gamine
Forecast: In a four runner field, Gamine is expected to justify her press clippings. The daughter of Into Mischief, a $1.8 million purchase at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale last May, has done everything in the morning like a future star. There will be no wagering value (she’s 3/5 on the morning line and could go even lower than that) so we’ll pass the race other than to use her as a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Bella Vita; 4-Stela Star; 10-Beguiled
Forecast: This listed stakes over a mile on grass for 3-year-old fillies came up especially contentious. We’ll try to survive and advance using three, but here’s another situation where you may find the need to spread deeper. Bella Vita projects as the controlling speed following her facile victory in a state-bred maiden turf sprint last month. She has the pedigree to stay the trip and if not policed during the early stages the daughter of Bayern may never look back. At 6-1 on the morning line for the always-potent Prat/Callaghan team, she’s a “must use.” Stela Star, a stakes winner in Ireland as a 2-year-old and training very well for her U.S. debut, has won on the lead overseas but has trained like she can really pour it on late. She could be very dangerous no matter what strategy is employedBeguiled was green as grass when breaking her maiden stylishly over this course and distance, so today she will add blinkers. With just two career starts behind her the daughter of Orb could very well have another significant move or two in her. At 10-1 on the morning line you have to include her somewhere.

RACE 8: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Authentic
Forecast: Authentic rates top billing in a stellar edition of the San Felipe Stakes, a race that features another B. Baffert-trained undefeated colt, Thousand Words, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Storm the Court, and the come-backing Honor A. P., who when last seen last fall was one of the most impressive local maiden winners. We’ll take a stand with Authentic, the son of Into Mischief who appeared to do everything wrong but still won the Sham S.-G3 all by himself despite being very green and almost hitting the rail twice from the furlong pole to the wire. He’s pulled no stunts in the morning since, so today we’re hopeful of seeing just what he can really do when fully concentrating on the task at hand. However, at 6/5 on the morning he won’t be offering any real value, so we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 9: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Kalliniki; 6-Muchly
Forecast: Muchly is an intriguing English invader making her U. S. debut in a first-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. The first-time Lasix user from the S. Callaghan barn performed well in valuable handicaps overseas, lands top turf jockey U. Rispoli, and should be plenty fit off the bench for a winning effort. We’ll put her on top but also include Kalliniki at 15-1 on the morning line. The lightly-raced filly from the P. D’Amato barn picks up F. Prat, adds blinkers, has trained well in recent weeks and might get brave if not policed on the front end.

RACE 10: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B+
Single:4-Gift Box
Forecast: Defending Santa Anita Handicap winner Gift Box faces an easier field this year than last and has trained better this year than last, so we’re fully expecting the 7-year-old son of Twirling Candy to prove a repeat winner. The J. Sadler-trained horse can be very tough on the front end or from a stalking position, and in a race that projects to have moderate (at best) early fractions, J. Rosario, aboard Gift Box, should be able to pick his early spot and dictate the race flow. We’ll make him a short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 11: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Quick; 4-Tijori; 12-Ellie Arroway
Forecast: Quick was given too much to do when rallying strongly but too late to wind up a close third under these conditions in her U.S. debut last month. She’ll need racing luck and some help up front to get there today, but if things break right the English-bred filly should be along in time. Tijori is interesting at 12-1 on the morning line. She gets blinkers, retains F. Prat, and had traffic trouble in the same race Quick exits and never really landed a blow. She can do better with clear sailing. Ellie Arroway is drawn farther out than we’d prefer and may be using this turf sprint as a prep for a two-turner next time out, but she’s lightly raced, training well and fits on numbers so we’ll include her on a few tickets as well.

RACE 12: Post 5:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Constitutionaffair; 8-My Journey
Forecast: The finale is a maiden $20,000 main track miler with little in it. Constitutionaffair stretches out again, adds blinkers, and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics. The S. Callaghan-trained colt takes a significant class drop, has worked well at Los Alamitos since his last race, and is less exposed that most of the others. My Journey has the blinkers off angle that we like and has hit the board in three of his last four starts. He’s competitive in speed figures, worked well recently, and makes a positive jockey switch to A. Cedillo.