Log In

Sunday, March 8: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

March 8, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Goalie

Forecast: Goalie didn’t get the best of runs when rallying to finish a distant second in a very fast, highly-rated race over this course and distance last month and with clear sailing today the son of Bodemeister should be able to take care of business. In a race without much pace, the P. D’Amato-trained colt should be able to settle in the second flight and then make his run. At 5/2 on the morning (with the likelihood of going lower), he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Gate Speed; 3-Fratelli; 4-Afternoon Heat

Forecast: Fratelli demolished a maiden claiming $20,000 field at first asking in November and was promptly claimed by M. Glatt, who returns the Munnings gelding off a three and one-half month vacation protected in this starter’s allowance abbreviated sprint in a sign of confidence. Based on speed figures he’ll be dangerous on the raise but no slam dunk, so we’ll toss in a couple of others in our rolling exotic play. Afternoon Heat, in the money in all eight career starts and with numbers that put him right there, appears the one to fear most. The S. Knapp-trained colt may be the most dangerous of the closers and with some help up front should be heard from in the final stages. Gate Speed will bust out and go from the rail and off his best effort must be included as well. He’s plenty quick – maybe quick enough to engage Fratelli early – and will help ensure a fast enough pace that might set things up nicely for the closing types.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Papa Turf

Forecast: Papa Turf has much in his favor in this extended sprint for older $10,000 claimers. A first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (28% with a substantial flat-bet profit with this angle), the veteran gelding lands the cozy outside post and can dictate the race either on the lead or from a stalking position. All seven of his wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, so at 9/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower, he’s a logical short price rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 4: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Colonial Creed; 3-Bodhitcitta; 4-Dogtap

Forecast: This nine furlong second-level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares has several possibilities, so we’ll spread three deep and hope to get a decent price home. Bodhicitta was visually quite impressive beating a soft group over this course last month, has trained especially well since, and may be capable of successfully handling the raise in class. The English-bred filly likes to settle and blast home and with F. Prat riding her back the R. Baltas-trained import should have every chance to post a repeat score. Colonial Creek, away since last May but with a series of sharp workouts from a barn that excels with come-backers, won over this turf course two runs back and looks very live off the bench with J. Rosario taking the call. She does her best work on the front end and could be tough to catch if not pressured early. Dogtag makes her first start since finishing unplaced in the Del Mar Oaks last summer. She has numbers that make her a strong contender at this level, has run very well fresh in the past, and has looked especially sharp in the morning, so the daughter of War Front is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Manresa; 6-Suezaaana

Forecast: Manresa may be as good as any in this bottom rung maiden claiming router for fillies and mares. With only three prior starts, she has room for improvement and projects to enjoy a soft pace stalking trip from her comfortable inside draw. She missed at 6/5 in a similar affair here in late January but won’t need to improve much to handle this task. Suezaaana is stretching out for the first time and seems certain to employ gate to wire tactics. She’s bred to run a mile and will take them as far as she can. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great amount of confidence, so if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 6: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Ekklesia; 4-Frasard; 7-Media Blitz; 8-Cosmo

Forecast: This is a difficult affair with several contenders, so we’ll go four deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. Media Blitz is steadily improving with experience and with another forward move in this, his fourth career start, the S. Callaghan-trained colt could be capable of earning his diploma in this nine furlong turf affair for older maidens. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has the kind of tactical speed that should place him in a comfortable stalking or pressing position in a race that projects to a have a modest early pace. Ekklesia, a close third in the same race Media Blitz exits, is a guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post should be in the fray throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Frasard needs to be held up early and allowed to make one run, and likely will get that type of ride with the switch to D. Van Dyke. We’ll also include Cosmo, working well and adding blinkers for Drysdale. He could easily be better than shown.

RACE 7: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Donna Veloce

Forecast: Dona Veloce, narrowly beaten in a pair of Grade-1 races to complete her juvenile campaign, returns in this Grade-3 affair off a three month layoff and beats this field if she’s anywhere near ready. The work tab seems light, but we doubt her connections would be running her unless she was reasonably fit, and because she won her debut by more than nine lengths we know she can fire a winning shot fresh. At 4/5 on the morning line the daughter of Uncle Mo clearly won’t be offering any real wagering value, so the best strategy use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 8: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-The Street Fighter; 7-Succeedandsurpass; 11-Odysseus

Forecast: The finale is a better-than-par first-level allowance grass miler. Succeedandsurpass is the logical top pick in his first outing since finishing a respectable fifth in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar in late November. Prior to that race the Irish-bred colt was a strong runner-up over the Santa Anita turf course in the Twilight Derby-G2, and nothing much more will be needed to handle this task. With the switch to F. Prat and a series of good works to have him fit and ready, the R. Baltas-trained colt clearly is the one to beat. The Street Fighter is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and may be worth including in your rolling exotics at that price. A previous winner over the local lawn, the B. Headley-trained horse has been freshened since September, has trained well enough to be fit off the bench, and should be running on strongly late. We’ll also toss in on a ticket or twoOdysseus, poorly drawn outside but an impressive debut sprint winner in mid-January and with a pedigree to improve as the distances increase. A recent bullet blowout should have him ready to produce a forward move.