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Sunday, March 15: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

March 15, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

Today’s Golden Hour Double AnalysisView Video

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Shooters Shoot; 5-Yeng Again; 8-Seize the Day

Forecast: Seize the Day may not be Charlatan, Nadal, or Authentic, but he’s trained like he has some ability and appears fit and ready for a big effort first crack out of the box in this mile maiden affair for 3-year-olds. The son of Carpe Diem will need to negotiate a good trip from his outside draw and if he’s able to the B. Baffert-trained colt should be highly competitive and maybe even more than that. Shooters Shoot was no match for Charlatan (who is?) when second beaten nearly six lengths with a career top speed figure last month. The son of Competitive Edge won’t find anything that good in here, but is questionable over a distance of ground, having been beaten 22 lengths in his only previous try around two-turns. From the rail he could become the controlling speed. Yeng Again was knocked down to 4/5 in his debut but despite having every chance the length of the lane simply couldn’t get by Silent Fury (who returned to finish last behind Charlatan yesterday). He’s another son of Carpe Diem and certainly has a right to move forward off the race but may find this stretch out to a mile somewhat problematic. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics in a tough, contentious affair.

RACE 2: Post 1:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ruby Bradley; 2-Winsinfashion

Forecast: Ruby Bradley, a stakes winner in her younger days, finished a close third at this level last month but was a voided claim and returned to the S. Miyadi barn. She’s in a similar spot today after working satisfactorily at Los Alamitos and is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her rail post. A two-time winner over the local main track, the daughter of Grazen seems the logical top pick. Winsinfashion adds blinkers for the first time, stretches out, and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics under A. Cedillo. If she can get loose, she should take this field a long way. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Ruby Bradley.

RACE 3: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Brickyard Ride

Forecast: Brickyard Ride appeared headed to a victory when he ducked in sharply at the head of the lane and lost his rider in a starter’s allowance turf miler in January. Freshened since then and sporting a good work tab that includes two bullet drills, the son of Clubhouse Ride shortens to a dirt sprint and should be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout from his rail post position. He’s the logical top pick at 9/5 on the morning line and a short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:37 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Too Much Heaven; 3-Biddy Duke

Forecast: Too Much Heaven is a first-off-the-claim for P. Eurton, returns to dirt, shortens to a sprint, and switches to J. Rosario. The daughter of Twirling Candy has rising speed figures, broke her maiden over this main track last fall, and may be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout despite her rail draw. Biddy Duke is re-equipped with blinkers, returns to the mid-level claiming ranks, and will help ensure a quick pace. First or second in six of 12 career starts, the daughter of Bayern has only one way to go, on the lead from start to finish. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Too Much Heaven.

RACE 5: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-New Year New Me; 3-Swingn It; 4-Tiz Curvy; 9-Midnight Garden

Forecast: Here’s another tough affair, a bottom-rung maiden claimier for older fillies and mares. We’ll spread four deep but otherwise sit it out. New Year New Me, a first-off-the-claim for V. Cerin, makes her first start in almost a year and could easily be better than shown this time around. The work tab isn’t fancy but it’s healthy and we’re expecting the daughter of Creative Cause to flash improved early speed in a race that really doesn’t have much. Swingn It has hit the board in two of three starts (she lost her rider in the other outing) and while slow on speed figures she at least appears to be a trier. The J. Sadler-trained homebred is a contender pretty much by default. Tiz Curvy and Midnight Garden are first-timers that might fit at this level. The former looked decent in a recent training track drill (third fastest of 43) while the latter shows a few recorded workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that indicate some ability. Tread lightly here.

RACE 6: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Saddle Bar; 2-Temple Knights; 6-Jen Go Unchained

Forecast: Saddle Bar earned a good figure when winning here two runs back but most recently failed to fire when sent north over the all-weather surface. These are his friends, he’s reunited with “win rider” A. Cedillo, and with a clean break from the rail should draft into an ideal pace-stalking/pressing position. In another spread affair, we’ll give him a very slight edge on top. Jen Go Unchained exits a much tougher race and drops a notch while remaining above his claim level. His win two races back over this track and distance charts very well in this modest restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer. Temple Knights makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat and shortens up a furlong and a half to what might be his favorite distance. With some help up front his late kick makes him a major player and a “must use.”

RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Rather Nosy; 3-Ava’s Charm

Forecast: Ava’s Charm and Rather Nosy had the misfortune of facing subsequent Beholder Mile-G1 winner Ce Ce last time out and considering the strength of the race did well to finish second and third, respectively. Both figure strongly today, with ‘Charm the quicker of the two and clearly the one to catch. ‘Nosy projects to enjoy a good stalking trip and is certain to offer better wagering value (she’s 6-1 on the morning line, ‘Charm is 8/5). We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while recognizing that ‘Charm will be hard to run down.

RACE 8: Post 4:44 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Chalky; 6-Diamond of Value

Forecast: There’s enough early speed to set things up for the late runners in the Sunday finale, a restricted (nw-2) bottom-rung claimer for fillies and mares. Diamond of Value drops sharply from a starter’s $50,000 allowance event to this $12,500 seller and also has the route-to-sprint angle that should suit her well. With anything close to her best race the veteran mare will be tough to contain in the final furlong. Chalky, away since October and dropping to her lowest level ever while picking up F. Prat, is another that does her best when held up early and allowed to run late. She has several back speed figures that would beat this field if repeated. We’ll give Diamond of Value a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.