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Sunday, March 29: Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

March 29, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Wild About This; 5-Cultivation; 8-Cookie Cove

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a maiden claiming turf sprint scramble for fillies and mares. Anything goes, so let’s try a 20-1 long shot on top. Wild About This turns back from a series of route races and may go much better at this abbreviated sprint trip. She has plenty of early speed and not much stick, but at this level from the rail she could take control early and get brave. Low profile connections will keep the price up. Cultivation, nosed out in a similar affair last month, won’t need much more than that to beat this group. She’ll be running on strongly late. Cookie Cove, a close fifth in the same race Cultivation exits, is another that figures to be doing her best work late, and if the speed collapses she’ll be dangerous in the final furlong.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 7-Brookes All Mine; 12-Enlisting

Forecast: Enlisting and Brookes All Mine both won their last races at this $8,000 level, both were claimed, and neither one is being raised in class by their new connections, not exactly a sign of confidencE. The former moves to a 4% barn and switches to a jockey who at last check was winless with 39 mounts at the meeting, while the latter switches to a 6% jockey but at least hails the capable R. Hess, Jr. barn. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence in a race that is best left alone.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pardon My Heart; 2-Tizahra7-Sacred Peace

Forecast: Pardon My Heart didn’t get the clearest of runs through the lane when a close fourth (beaten a length) in a similar maiden turf router for fillies and mares earlier this month but with the switch to L. Saez from her inside draw the daughter of Declaration of War should be well-positioned to fire her best shot. Tizahra, second in her last pair with competitive speed figures and exiting the same race as Pardon My Heart, may find herself as the controlling speed in a race that projects to be slowly run early. Given that kind of trip, the I. Wilkes-trained filly could get very brave. Sacred Peace, a nine-race maiden from France making her U. S. debut, shows some decent efforts vs. winners at Chantilly and Deauville last year, and those races if repeated her give her a look. She’s a first-time Lasix user from a capable outfit and lands J. Rosario, so at 12-1 on the morning she’s a “must use.”

RACE 4: Post 2:31 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 7-Center Aisle

Forecast: Center Aisle blazed a quarter mile in :20 3/5 at the Fasig-Tipton March Sale last year and then brought $1.5 million through the ring. She finally makes it to the races more than a year later following a healthy series of breezing workouts for C. Brown. In viewing the video of several of her drills at xbtv.com it’s fairly evident that this daughter of Into Mischief is loaded with speed and quality. The known element doesn’t particularly impress and we doubt there’s a world beater among the other first-timers, so at 5/2 on the morning we’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:03 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bean Counter; 9-I Am Magical

Forecast: Bean Counter was a beaten choice in a recent starter’s allowance middle distance turf affair so in her second start off a layoff she returns to the restricted claiming ranks, draws the rail, and should be the controlling speed for the Pletcher-Saez team. I Am Magicalmust overcome her outside draw and is winless in four starts since being imported from England but her numbers are solid and she appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two in an uninspiring affair.

RACE 6: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 12-Dr Post

Forecast: Dr Post was all the rage last summer prior to his debut at 50 cents on the dollar at Belmont Park, but after bobbling at the start and then failing to show his best speed, the son of Quality Road wound up fourth and then disappeared. The T. Pletcher-trained colt makes it back to the post nine months later in this seven furlong maiden special weight affair for 3-year-olds, lands the cozy outside post, and once again should be heavily backed at the windows. His workouts at Palm Beach Downs give every indication that the hype prior to his 2-year-old debut was justified; this time we’re expecting no mistakes. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1.

RACE 7: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Blazing Desires; 6-Justinthenickoftime

ForecastBlazing Desires seems likely to be the controlling speed from his inside draw and will take them as far as he can. How quick he’ll have to go early may depend on how much pressure is applied by Mystery Bank, a maiden tackling winners but with the kind of early speed that could impact the pace flow. Justinthenickoftime, a well-beaten third in an overnight stakes over this course and distance last month, earned a good number in defeat and won’t need much better to act at this level of competition. The Justin Phillip gelding switches to L. Saez and appears capable of making a strong run from second-flight, stalking trip.

RACE 8: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Faraway Kitten; 4-Morocco; 11-Westerland

Forecast: Faraway Kitten was an unlucky runner-up when claimed for $40,000 last month and moves up a level for his new connections while trying to make amends after missing at even money. With a better trip today, he can be along in time. Morocco was out of his element when unplaced in the Mac Diarmeda Stakes but he’s realistically spotted today while remaining above his claim level for M. Maker and switching to L. Saez. With some help up front, Pioneerof the Nile gelding will be heard from late. Westerland, listed at 12-1 on the morning line, may be worth tossing in somewhere. The “other” M. Maker entrant earned a strong number when unplaced in a tougher second-level allowance affair in late January, switches to P. Lopez, and is another capable of producing a dangerous late kick if the race-shape turns up in his favor.

RACE 9: Post 3:34 ET. Grade:
Use: 4-Viva Forever; 6-Believe Indeed; 8-Angelia

Forecast: Angelia lands the ideal outside post for this one-turn mile and in her second start off a long layoff the daughter of Curlin should produce enough of a forward move to regain her winning form in this first-level allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. She also gets an extra quarter of a mile to work with, so there should be no excuses at 9/5 on the morning line. Small ticket player may consider her as a possible rolling exotic single. Believe Indeed shortens up and returns to the main track, conditions that should suit her fine. The P. Walder-trained mare, first or second in 21 of 46 career starts, seems likely to at least hit the board from off the pace. Old pro Viva Forever, a winner of 11 races (with seven seconds) from 42 career outings, was beaten as the favorite at Tampa Bay Downs two weeks ago and in fact has failed as the chalk in each of her last three starts and four of her last five. At this stage of her career she may no longer be one to trust, but we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two out of respect.

RACE 10: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Urban Fairytale; 7-Key Biscayne

Forecast: The newcomers don’t impress so let’s try to get by in rolling exotic play using a couple of experienced fillies at decent prices launching a comeback. Urban Fairytale, away since October when she finished a solid second in a maiden special weight affair at Keeneland, will be tough if she returns as well as she left for I. Wilkes. The work tab at a local training center should have her fit enough. Key Biscayne, away since July and returning without blinkers, was a runner-up in a pair of races over the local lawn before being stopped on, and she, too, appears to have been training well at an off-track center. Neither are world beaters on pure form but against this group they probably won’t have to be.

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