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Wednesday, April 29: Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

April 29, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Young American; 10-The Great Houdini

Forecast: Young American is an old vet with 53 starts and may be feeling the effects of a long career. He’s been one-paced with no real late punch in his recent races, but the son of Congrats rates top billing in this restricted $5,000 sprint under the realization that somebody has to finish first. Winless in six starts over the local main track, the A. Rini-trained gelding nevertheless is a fit on numbers and should be within range to the head of the lane and then have his chance. The Great Houdini has four wins and 15 places in his 50 race career and has no tactical speed, but on paper looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types and should make his presence felt late. In race that is best left alone (we’ve rated it a “C”), both should be included in rolling exotic play, and if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Accessible

Forecast: Accessible is even money on the morning line and looks it in this below average maiden special weight main track affair. Second in three of his four career outings and with numbers that are better than par for this level, the son of Tapit returns to dirt, which appears to be his preferred surface, and with the switch to S. Camacho should have little difficulty handling this soft assignment. We can make him a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Wish Upon; 4-Bramble Queen; 8-Passing Out

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Wish Upon was 54-1 when overmatched in the Hillsborough S.-G2 in early March but seems well-placed to regain her winning form over a course she’s been known to like. The J. Terranova-trained mare earned a strong speed figure two runs back (better than par for this level) when winning a good starter’s allowance affair and with the switch to S. Comacho from a comfortable inside draw the daughter of El Corredor has plenty in her favor. Passing Out, away since November, vans up from Payson Park for Shug and similar shippers from this barn have done very well this meeting (first or second in seven of 12 starts). The lightly-raced daughter of Orb has speed figures from last year that fit and shows a recent work tab that should have her ready. And since she won her debut, we know she can fire fresh. Bramble Queen, on vacation since the fall, shows a light recent series of drills and may be a race away, but her Midwest speed figures from last year are solid and her record over the local lawn fairly impressive (never off the board in five starts, with three wins). The rider doesn’t win many but we’ll toss her in on a ticket or two as a back-up.

RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kalu; 2-Gilded Drama; 8-Mister Storm

Forecast: Gilded Drama drops to his lowest level ever for a high-percentage barn that runs its stock where it belongs. A winner in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 off-the-turf dash two runs back, the son of Big Drama wasn’t quite up to competing at the $16,000 level in his most recent outing so he drops again for the money run and will beat this field if he has one good one left. Kalu had a rough trip when unplaced vs. tougher earlier this month and is another dropping to his cheapest level yet. His win two races back charts well here, so if he can negotiate a good trip from the rail the E. Harty-trained son of Ghostzapper should be right there. Mister Storm makes his second start since joining a high percentage outfit and has a few back numbers that make him dangerous, though he’s winless in eight career outings on dirt. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth a look as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Tabled; 8-Cadet Connelly; 10-Mr. Kringle

Forecast: Mr. Kringle gets the worst of the draw but after finishing second in the Columbia Stakes over this course and distance in early March the J. Terranova-trained colt shows up in a first-level allowance affair that’s within his capabilities with a decent sort of trip. He picks up S. Camacho and shows a strong series of recent local workouts including a noteworthy bullet half mile drill in :47 flat earlier this month that was the fastest of 72 for the distance. Cadet Connelly is the one to fear most, having finished second at 109-1 in the Summer S.-G1 at Woodbine last summer. A versatile type who can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace, the Grey Swallow gelding lands A. Gallardo and the work tab, while not flashy, should have him fit enough for a competent outfit. Tabled earned a career top number when missing by a head in a similar affair at 36-1 earlier this month and has done very well since in the a.m., turning in a bullet half mile drill of :48 flat that was the fastest of 28 two weeks ago. The M. Stidham-trained son of Super Saver should be a strong threat if gets some cover early and then is produced late. In what appears to be a stronger than par race for the level, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and the press with extra tickets keying Mr. Kringle on top.

RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Premier Justice

Forecast: Here’s a modest affair, a restricted (nw-2) $8,000 seller for fillies and mares. Let’s take a stand. After breaking her maiden here three races back in stylish fashion, Premier Justice was sent long in her next start (doesn’t want that) and wound up a hanging fourth, and then was dropped to this level 11 days ago but was impeded early and never got involved. We’ll give her a chance to bounce back today for a high percentage barn in a seven furlong affair that should present a soft and favorable pace scenario. She’s 7/2 on the morning line and at that price she may offer a bit of value, so rather that spread or buy the race (which we considered) we’ll use her in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single and simply hope to be right.

RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Uhtred; 7-Last Promise; 8-Jack the Cat

Forecast: Last Promise is strong in the speed figure department and loves to win races (he’s 7-for-15), so despite being up in class from a $25,000 claimer to a first-level allowance race the lightly-raced 6-year-old gelding seems quite capable of continuing his excellent recent form. Tough on the lead or from off the pace and equally capable on dirt or turf, the son of Spring At Last can adjust to any pace flow and this jockey fits him well. We’ll put him on top at 9/2 on the morning line. The C. Clement-trained Uhtred vans back up from Payson Park for his first outing since December. Third as the favorite over this course and distance at this level, the son of English Channel shows an uneven work tab for his first start in more than four months but he’s guaranteed a good trip from his rail draw and picks up the barn’s local go-to rider, S. Camacho, so we have to think he’s live. Jack the Cat can really turn it on late and earned a career top speed figure (one that’s better than par for this level) when finishing a strong runner-up in a similar affair in mid-March. With some help up, front the Courageous Cat gelding should be heard from late.

RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tilsa; 3-Curly Wurly; 8-Never Forget; Lipstikliesnlovers

Forecast: The finale is an intriguing maiden special weight middle distance turf event for fillies and mares. Curly Wurly, a first-timer by Curlin from the potent C. Clement/S. Camacho team. While we doubt she’s any world beater (she would have debuted at Gulfstream Park if she was), the Castleton Lyons homebred has worked well enough at Payson Park to indicate some ability, so in a field in which the known element isn’t all that impressive we’ll try the fresh face at 4-1 on the morning line. Tilsa is another newcomer worth a close look. The daughter of Flatter hails from the top shelf J. Thomas stable, lands the good rail and gets the barn’s main jockey D. Centeno. The local work tab seems fairly solid for a barn that is competent with debut runners, so we have to think this filly is well-meant at 6-1 on the morning line. Among those with prior experience, Never Forget and Lipstikliesnlovers have credentials to be competitive. The former is a War Front filly trying grass for the first time and could leave her previous form behind, while the latter, a daughter of American Pharoah, adds blinkers after finishing third in a similar affair over the local lawn and projects to be prominent throughout in a race that is likely to be slowly run early.