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Thursday, May 7: Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 7, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-No Non Nina; 6-Myfirstexwife

Forecast: Myfirstexwife hits rock bottom in this maiden $12,500 claimer, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and has speed figures that are much faster than what should be required to win this race. The concern is that this will her first start in more than two months and the work tab appears a bit uneven, but assuming she has at least one good one left the J. Abreu-trained daughter of The Factor looks playable at or near her morning line of 5/2No No Nina was well-backed in both of her starts vs. straight maidens but failed to threaten in her debut in an off-the-turf dash and then displayed a bit of early speed before faltering over this course and distance in her most recent outing last month. Originally a $150,000 yearling purchase, she’s being tossed into the scrap heat in just her third career outing by C. Clement, hardly an encouraging sign, and there’s little value to be found at her morning line of 8/5. We’ll have a ticket or two saving with ‘Nina in our rolling exotics but the main push goes to Myfirstexwife.

RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Princess Secret; 4-Gem Thief; 5-Lyrical;

Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies sprint four and one-half furlongs in the second race. The W. Ward-trained Gem Thief lands I. Ortiz, Jr. so we’re going to assume that this daughter of Shanghai Bobby is fit and ready. An $85,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, she shows a couple of recent bullet workouts, a 36 2/5 gate drill over a wet fast track at Gulfstream Park West, and a :35 1/5 grass drill around dogs at Palm Meadows. Lyrical has recorded some solid times in the a.m. and was much best in a three-horse gate drill last month while wearing blinkers and showing some quickness. We’d also toss in Princess Secret, a Khozan filly with a bullet three furlong gate work of :35 2/5 at Gulfstream Park West last month. With L. Saez aboard, she looks like a live item. We’ll have tickets using all three in our rolling exotics with preference on top to the logical favorite, Gem Thief.

RACE 3: Post 2:09 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Take Charge Again; 6-Miss Mac

Forecast: Take Charge Again had a rough trip in a similar restricted (nw-2) $6,250 claiming sprint for fillies last time out and may be able to make amends if she can negotiate a good trip from her rail draw. Off awkwardly and then being forced to lose ground when rallying from far back to finish a respectable third while earning a career-top speed figure, the J. Cibelli-trained filly switches to one of this barn’s preferred riders, D. Davis, and should be prominent throughout with every chance. Miss Mac, dropping suspiciously in class following a $12,500 claim by a low profile outfit, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy C. Torres and is re-equipped with blinkers. She broke her maiden over this course and distance in February and if healthy should make her presence felt at 6-1 on the morning line. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press keying Take Charge Again on top.

RACE 4: Post 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Formula; 5-Garner State Park; 12-Carribean Kitten

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fourth race, a maiden $16,000 claiming router on grass for fillies and mares. Formula was off poorly and then never got involved in her debut in March but takes a significant class drop from the maiden $50,000 ranks for a barn that had good stats with second-time starters. With the switch to J. Rosario, we’re expecting a substantial turnaround from this daughter of Algorithms, and at 5-1 on the morning in a wide-open grass grab bag she may offer a bit of gambling value at or near that price. Garner State Park is the one to beat following a pair of in-the-frame performances over the local lawn, most recently when second at this level while almost three lengths clear of the others. The daughter of Lea goes for the high-percentage (26%) jockey/trainer combo of L. Saez and T. Pletcher and looks attractive at 4-1 on the morning line, though we suspect she’ll go favored. Carribean Kitten gets the worst of the draw but has rising speed figures and is dropping from the maiden $30,000 ranks to the bottom-rung. She switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. but will need some luck to get over and secure a good spot from the 12-hole.

RACE 5: Post 3:13 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Bourbon Currency

Forecast: There were several key program scratches out of this race, leaving us with a potential single. Bourbon Currency, a strong runner-up at this level last month, always has struck us as a one-paced, grinding type, but he’s run well for I. Ortiz, Jr. in the past and has numbers that make him the one to beat. He was originally 5/2 on the morning line but the J. Kimmel-trained gelding surely will go lower than that. You can use him as a no-value top pick or simply pass the race.

RACE 6: Post 3:45 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Victory Town

Forecast: With the scratching of Celtic Brotherhood, we’re left with a potential single. Victory Town, in the frame in his last pair, should be running on well and with some help up front might be able to tag the leaders. He’s nothing special but this Florida-bred affair came up pretty light. He’ll probably be shorter than he should so you can use him as a rolling exotic single or just pass the race.

RACE 7: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Royally Cool; 5-Heir Ball;

Forecast: Here’s a salty five furlong turf sprint for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares. Royally Cool, claimed for $12,500 when beaten as the choice in a dirt sprint in mid-February, returns off a nearly three month vacation on the one-level raise for new trainer S. Klesaris, switches to E. Jaramillo, and appears to be the speed of the speed with the return to grass. Most comfortable as a turf sprinter, the daughter of Majesticperfection will take them as far as she can. Heir Ball, first or second in 11 of 22 career starts, should fire another big shot today. She’s another with excellent tactical speed but with the ability to settle and provide a second move, so V. Lebron can play the race flow by ear. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a very solid contender. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Royally Cool.

RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Four K’s; 8-Worth Avenue

Forecast: Here’s a bottom-rung $6,250 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. There are two main players and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Four K’s drops for the money run in her first start in four months and shows only two workouts since April. Could this be a smokescreen, or does W. Ward is training here like she doesn’t have many left? The veteran mare has primarily been a grass specialist throughout her career but the last time she raced on dirt – it was off-the-turf event – the daughter of Field Commission beat a tougher field by almost seven lengths. She picks up D. Davis, loses her blinkers, and has back numbers that are more than good enough to win, assuming she’s in one piece. Worth Avenue lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late, and if she can avoid a wide trip from her outside draw the V. Barboza, Jr.-trained mare could be hard to contain late under the barn’s “go-to” rider E. Zayas.

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Bean Counter; 10-Mike’s Girl

Forecast: Bean Counter missed at even money in a restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claimer over this course and distance in late March but earned a career top speed figure in defeat and is protected today in this starter’s allowance affair while switching to J. Rosario. The lightly-raced daughter of Into Mischief should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and then try to seal the deal from the quarter pole, something she failed to do last time out. Mike’s Girl is stuck way outside in her first start in nearly three months but work tab indicates she’s fit and ready for a trainer that is currently hitting at an absurd 36% while producing a flat-bet profit in all major statistical categories. The daughter of Scat Daddy likes to lay close to the pace but from her outside draw she’s going to need luck to secure a reasonable trip. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence, so if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 10: Post 5:49 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Bow Town Cat5-Flora Fantasy

Forecast: This is a race that is best left alone. Flora Fantasy, a six-time winner over the local main track and unbeaten in two starts this year, exits the high-percentage S. Joseph, Jr., barn following a $16,000 claim and today goes for an outfit that is winless in 2020. The veteran mare retains I. Ortiz, Jr., so there’s that, but there’s really no guarantee that she will run as well today as she did for her prior connections, and even if she does at 6/5 on the morning line she won’t be offering any value. Bow Town Cat arrives from Parx after winning a $12,500 claimer over a good strip in early March that earned a decent speed figure. She gets a break in the weights by picking up bug boy C. Torres, and if the daughter of Cowtown Cat breaks well from the rail she should find herself on or near the lead throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but neither one can really be trusted.

RACE 11: Post 6:19 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Two by Two; 9-Koko Star; 10-Champers

Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden claiming $65,000 turf miler that could be won by just about anybody. We’ll take some shots while trying to get price horse home. Koko Star seems a bit intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line for the strong jockey/trainer combo of L. Saez and M. Maker and is dropping from straight maiden company into a seller for the first time. Unplaced in three career starts but with buried numbers that aren’t too bad, the son of Kitten’s Joy has a late kick that could be extremely effective in this league. Champers is a California invader in the R. Hess, Jr., barn with figures that fit. Interestingly, the son of Cairo Prince continues to be kept above his claim level despite being an eight race maiden with six of those defeats occurring after he was haltered for $50,000 last September. The barn must still like him. Two By Two has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like for the dangerous I. Wilkes/C. Landeros team and has a pedigree that should allow him to improve routing on grass. The boost in class is a sign of confidence that the son of New Year’s Day has further improvement in him. At 10-1 on the morning line you have to use him.