by Jeremy Plonk
May 14, 2020
The Betmix database allows horseplayers to pick and choose their points of interest through its Angler feature. That’s particularly potent when we look ahead to a weekly lineup that includes the potential return of four racing circuits that have been dormant since late March. How will the layoff runners perform at Santa Anita, Golden Gate Fields, Churchill Downs and Charles Town? With the click of a few buttons, years of past results can help clarify the most pressing question on the minds of horseplayers.
Golden Gate Fields (re-opens Thursday, May 14)
Golden Gate has been idle since March 29, a span of 6 weeks. We looked at horsemen coming off 6-11 week layoffs, considering horses in their form cycle when the meet ended could have been 4-5 weeks from their most recent race at the time of shutdown. Over the last 5 years, note the following trainers with GG runners off layoffs in that range:
Richard Mandella 14: 7-3-2 (50% wins, $1.23 ROI for every $1 bet)
Ari Herbertson 25: 10-4-3 (40%, $1.57)
John Martin 174: 45-32-31 (26%, $0.72)
Quinn Howey 49: 12-6-8 (24%, $0.87)
Ryan Kenney 21: 5-2-0 (24%, $2.63)
Patrick Gallagher 38: 9-4-10 (24%, $0.88)
Holly Evans 28: 6-6-5 (21%, $1.26)
Steve Sherman 120: 25-14-24 (21%, $1.23)
Overall, favorites off of the aforementioned layoff time at Golden Gate Fields during the past 5 years have won at 36%. John Martin has hit with 52% of his favorites in these spots, while Manuel Badilla is a razor-sharp 13: 8-3-0 (62% wins, 85% in exacta).
Santa Anita (re-opens Friday, May 15)
Santa Anita closed after the March 22 card and has been away for 7 weeks. Our range researched here is 7-12 week layoffs to account for the shutdown and those who were within 5 weeks of a race at that time. Over the last 5 years, note the following trainers with SA runners off layoffs in that range:
Bob Baffert 119: 37-18-25 (31%, $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet)
Richard Mandella 118: 31-11-14 (26%, $1.25)
Bill Spawr 98: 25-17-12 (26%, $1.35)
John Shirreffs 70: 17-8-9 (24%, $1.57)
Eddie Truman 34: 10-5-7 (29%, $1.23)
Keith Desormeaux 57: 14-8-11 (25%, $1.14)
Ben Cecil 27: 7-2-9 (26%, $1.62)
Javier Jose Sierra: 27: 6-6-2 (22%, $2.20)
Craig Lewis: 29: 6-3-3 (21%, $2.49)
Peter Eurton 131: 27-14-18 (21%, $0.99)
Overall, favorites off of the aforementioned layoff time at Santa Anita during the past 5 years have won at 36%. Bill Spawr (58%), Richard Mandella (55%) and Bob Baffert (51%) have been exceptional with the chalk off such breaks.
Churchill Downs (re-opens Saturday, May 16)
Racing at Churchill Downs was supposed to begin April 30, but has been delayed 2 weeks due. Consider the suspension of the 4-week Keeneland meet prior, and racing has been dormant in Kentucky since March 21 at Turfway Park. This meet will get an influx of horses from Oaklawn, which had raced through the start of May, as well as Fair Grounds, which cut its meet a week short on March 21. New York racing remains closed, so NYRA raiders to this meet haven’t had a venue since Aqueduct stopped on its meeting March 15. Our range researched here is 7-12 week layoffs to account for the shutdown since Turfway/Fair Grounds and those who were within 5 weeks of a race at that time. Over the last 5 years, note the following trainers with CD runners off layoffs in that range:
Eddie Kenneally 32: 10-5-4 (31%, $1.19 ROI for every $1 bet)
Jimmy DiVito 17: 5-2-2 (29%, $3.23)
Al Stall Jr. 35: 8-6-4 (23%, $0.85)
Tom Amoss 62: 13-9-10 (21%, $0.81)
Kenny McPeek 39: 8-4-6 (21%, $.90)
Rusty Arnold 51: 10-10-7 (20%, $1.12)
Bernie Flint 25: 7-3-1 (28%, $1.50)
Chris Richard 22: 5-3-7 (23%, $0.81)
Overall, favorites off of the aforementioned layoff time at Churchill Downs during the past 5 years have won at just 29%. Trainers Bill Mott (57%), Al Stall (45%) and Eddie Kenneally (45%) have been the most reliable with layoff favorites.
Charles Town (re-opens Thursday, May 14)
Charles Town was forced to shutter after the March 21 card and also has been away for 7 weeks. Our range researched here is 7-12 week layoffs to account for the shutdown and those who were within 5 weeks of a race at that time. Over the last 5 years, note the following trainers with CT runners off layoffs in that range:
Kevin Patterson 46: 21-8-5 (46%, $0.96 ROI for every $1 bet)
James W. Casey 96: 22-14-19 (23%, $0.91)
Jeff Runco 363: 80-67-55 (22%, $0.69)
Tim Grams 87: 19-13-13 (22%, $0.93)
David Walters: 83: 17-19-13 (21%, $1.22)
Billy Davis 20: 7-1-0 (35%, $2.64)
Gary Williams Jr. 24: 7-5-0 (29%, $1.47)
Suzanne Dempsey 9: 4-1-1 (44%, $3.47)
Michael Sterling 10: 4-1-0 (40%, $1.25)
Narciso Cruz 14: 4-2-1 (29%, $5.01)
Overall, favorites off of the aforementioned layoff time at Charles Town during the past 5 years have won at 42%. Kevin Patterson (57%) and Tim Grams (53%) have been most trustworthy with chalk on such a break. James Casey (46%) and David Walters (46%) also have been very effective with layoff favorites.