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Thursday, May 14: Golden Gate Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 14, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shanghai Truffles; 4-Buyback

Forecast: Racing resumes in the Bay Area with a middle distance starter’s allowance event on grass for fillies and mares. Buyback invades from Southern California and is a first-off-the-claim play following a game win with a career-top speed figure in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint. She’s moving up in class, stretching out, and switching to grass, and while we’re confident the M. Chew-trained filly will cope with the class hike and handle the added distance, her ability on grass is unknown. The good news is that she was produced by a daughter of English Derby-G1 winner North Light, so there’s reason to believe she’ll enjoy the lawn, and as the projected controlling speed, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man could be hard to catch. Shanghai Truffles also vans north from Santa Anita after being kept on edge with a steady recent series of easy workouts. She lacks a true turn of foot, but if the P. Gallagher-trained daughter of Shanghai Bobby can lay relatively close to the early pace she may be able to grind down the leaders late. The barn’s “go-to” Northern California jockey J. Couton (39% with a powerful flat-bet profit with this stable) takes the call. We’ll prefer Buyback slightly on top while including both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bank of Many; 4-Charming Lass; 8-Rebel At Heart

Forecast: Rebel At Heart seems well-spotted to graduate in the second race, a maiden $5,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares over five furlongs. Not a quick type but likely to settle just behind the leaders and then have every chance to seal the deal, the daughter of Kafwain removes blinkers and drops to the bottom for the first time. A good recent work pattern should have her on edge. Charming Lass plummets from the maiden $12,500 level and projects to be in a good pace-pressing position. She also shows a healthy recent series of drills and on speed figures is a fit in this league. Bank of Many brings the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and has a speed figure deep in her past performance chart over this track and distance that probably could win this race. We’d include her on our ticket as a back-up.

RACE 3: Post 1:45 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Takes a Village; 4-Sassy and Hot; 8-Streusel

Forecast: Sassy and Hot should be the solid choice to earn her diploma in this six furlong maiden $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares. With just two prior outings, the daughter of Stormin Fever has room to improve, and after missing by a neck while more than three lengths clear of the rest in a similar affair over this track in March, she projects as the controlling speed under J. Couton, who stays aboard for Southern California-based trainer L. Powell. The one to fear most is Takes a Village, who drops to her lowest level ever while owning several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. However, she is an 11-race maiden and has a history of backing up under pressure from the furlong pole to the wire, so while we’ll definitely include the daughter of Lakerville on our ticket she is by no means one to trust. Also worth using on at least a ticket or two is Streusel, a second-time starter from the J. Josephson barn. A willing third in the same race Sassy and Hot exits, the daughter of Smiling Tiger has a right to improve with that bit of experience behind her combined with an extra half-furlong to work with.

RACE 4: Post 2:15 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sarah’s Smirk; 2-Lydia O Lydia; 3-Real Keeper; 5-Westerly Way

Forecast: The first leg of the Pick-6 is borderline inscrutable, requiring a substantial spread. Use as many as you can afford to. Waverly Way has been routing most of her career but in this new role as a late-running sprinter the Kitten’s Joy filly could tag the suspect leaders in the final furlong. In the frame in each of her last three starts and with speed figures that are better than par for the level, the T. McCanna-trained filly retains W. Antongeorgi III, who knows her well. Sarah’s Smirk returned off an eight month layoff to graduate gamely over this track and distance in a respectable maiden $8,000 affair that produced a career top speed figure, one that makes her a solid fit right back in this restricted (nw-2) $4,000 affair for fillies and mares. She needs to leave cleanly from the rail, and in a field that doesn’t contain many quick types she could be tough to run down. Real Keeper, away since last June, returns in a realistic spot for competent connections but shows an inspiring workout pattern that has a recent 26-day gap. Additionally, the barn has below average stats with layoff runners, so we’ll use her but not with a lot of confidence. Lydia O Lydia has a maiden claiming win here in late February that charts well with these. After being overmatched vs. nw-2 $12,500 foes in her most recent start the E. Moger, Jr.-trained filly drops to where she fits while retaining top rider J. J. Hernandez.

RACE 5: Post 2:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Cape Point; 7-Constitutionaffair; 8-Strugar

Forecast: Three Southern California shippers should get much of the play in this maiden-claiming $20,000 middle distance turf event, topped by Constitutionaffair for the high-percentage (44%) S. Callaghan-J.J. Hernandez team. A strong runner-up while more than seven lengths clear of the rest at this level down south in early March, the lightly-raced 3-year-old tries grass for the first time, and though his dam (by Street Cry) was unraced his second dam, a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, was a good grass allowance winner at Keeneland in a brief career so there’s hope that his colt will handle the sod just fine. In what projects to be a slowly run race, he should be able to draft into a lovely pace-stalking/pressing position and then have every chance to kick when asked to. Strugar is worth strong consideration as well. Originally a $900,000 yearling, the son of Hard Spun has had only two career starts midway through his 4-year-old season and is clearly being culled by the stable but based on the speed figure he earned in his debut in February over a mile on the main track the P. Eurton-trained gelding could be dangerous in his first start over a surface he’s bred to like. Cape Point, from the J. Sadler barn, drops to his lowest level ever, and though he has yet to hit the board in five starts his speed figures suggest he’ll be very competitive in this league. So far, the son of Temple City has displayed a one-pace style with no real acceleration but against this group he should be something of a factor.

RACE 6: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Diamondsnchampagne

Forecast: Diamondsnchampagne is a tough-as-nails sprinter who has been superbly managed by trainer W. Delia. Today she drops into an $8,000 restricted claiming sprint for fillies and mares that have never won two races for $6,250 or higher. This state-bred 5-year-old has won a total seven races in her career, all but one for a price below the cut-off level, so these conditions fit her perfectly. Regular pilot C. Martinez will have her on the lead in a field that she should be able to clear without undue pressure, and at this five and one-furlong trip with a record of six wins from 10 starts and with numbers that are consistently strong, the five-year-old daughter of Vronsky should simply pick-up where she left off. We’ll make her a logical single in rolling exotic play, including, of course, the Pick-6.

RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Odessa; 4-Moonshine Annie

Forecast: Odessa returns to grass after finishing a solid runner-up at this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 level on the all-weather surface in her most recent outing in early March. From the high-percentage J. Wong barn, the daughter of Acclamation shouldn’t have an issue with turf, and if given the patient ride she prefers she projects to inherit a comfortable mid-pack position and and have every chance to produce a winning late kick in a field that has ample speed signed on. Moonshine Annie, freshened since early January and dropping significantly to her lowest level ever, is a rather uninspiring 1-for-21 in her career on turf, but may get her confidence back in this league. She’s another that’s most effective with patient handling and given the proper ride could be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Stand in Your Love; 7-Breakfast Ball; 9-Perfect Mood

Forecast: Perfect Mood broke poorly, raced wide, had a bit of traffic trouble in the upper stretch and then finished evenly in her only prior outing while facing tougher straight maidens last fall. She was stopped on after that start but returns in a soft maiden $12,500 sprint with three six furlongs drills and then recent bullet three furlong gate drill (36 2/5, fastest of 27). The daughter of Idiot Proof – assuming she breaks well – should be on or near the pace throughout and against this group could very well keep on going. Stand in Your Love, in the frame in all three career starts and the likely choice and one to beat, turns back from a mile in her second start since being claimed by solid trainer D. Markle. She’s quick enough to be in the first flight throughout. Breakfast Ball didn’t run badly in her debut when a willing third in a fairly competitive race for the level. The daughter of Bayern has a right to move forward due to a healthy series of workouts since that race, so we’ll toss her in as well.

RACE 9: Post 4:45 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Conquest Sabre Cat; 2-Studly Perfection; 3-Soberano

Forecast: Conquest Sabre Cat is a Golden Gate Fields course specialist, having won three of five career starts over the local lawn, and though moving up from the $8,000 level this veteran Kitten’s Joy gelding seems well-spotted to regain his winning form. Guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip under regular rider J. J. Hernandez, the I. Tamayo-trained 7-year-old seems capable of wearing down the leaders close home. Soberano is a strong fit on speed figures but is winless in seven starts since being imported from France. Based in Southern California but a decent third when facing $20,000 foes here over the all-weather surface in early March, the T. R. Bell II-trained son of Elusive City likes to lag and kick home late and therefore would be happy to see a faster-than-par early pace. Studly Perfection is a first-off-the-claim for J. Wong (36% with this angle) and can be expected to improve significantly. The son of Majesticperfection, a winner on the all-weather in early February when defeating Conquest Sabre Cat, is re-equipped with blinkers, lands a good inside draw, and almost certainly will employ gate-to-wire tactics in this $12,500 turf miler for older horses. The surface switch is an issue, though, as he was last of nine at even money (speed/fade) in his only prior outing on grass vs. maiden claimers at Santa Anita a couple of years ago.