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Friday, May 22: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 22, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

Churchill Downs – 9th race. Post 5:12 ET.
1 – Summering (9/2)

Returned to winning form with a confidence-building score at Tampa Bay Downs in early April and has trained superbly since, so we’re expecting this daughter of War Front to produce a significant forward move while tackling a tougher group of older fillies and mares. She’s guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post, so at 9/2 on the morning line this stakes-winning filly is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

Golden Gate Fields – 9th race. Post 4:45 PT
3 – Hey Wilmaaa (9/2)

Has been burning up the track in the a.m. for a couple of months and with racing having resumed finally gets a chance to display her abilities in the afternoon, when it matters. From a high percentage barn and bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree plus enough turf breeding to handle the surface, the daughter of Cyclotron won’t have to be a world beater to win at first asking against this moderate group of older maiden special weight fillies and mares. At 9/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top as a strong play both in the win pool and in the rolling exotics.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Teton Valley; 4-Ingest

Forecast: Teton Valley has done some good work in the a.m. leading up to his debut and is plenty fit for a top effort first crack out of the box. It’s hard to gauge how quick out of the gate he will be – he was a bit slow to find his best stride in the one gate drill we were able to view earlier this month – but once in motion the son of Tapizar looked like a nice sort. The R. Hanson barn has been red hot this year and appears to have another live runner. Ingest has trained like a professional for D. O’Neill and as a son of “win early” stallion Square Eddie should make his presence felt right from the bell. In the two gate works we viewed on video the Reddam homebred broke well and proved best in team drills without being asked for his best. The barn’s main guy M. Gutierrez takes the call. These are the two we’ll be focusing on in our rolling exotics, but big ticket players may also want to toss in the two L. Mendez-trained entrants, Positivity and Tripp a Matic, both of whom were prepared at the same Utah training center as Love Wins, the debut winner of the first baby race here over the weekend.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Your Royal Coil; 7-Hot On the Trail; 8-Miss Bennet

Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs with at least three legitimate possibilities. Your Royal Coil has rising speed figures with every outing and seems fairly solid after finishing a close second in a similar affair here in March. Blinkers go on for the first time, so we’re expecting the P. Aguirre-trained filly to be on on or near the lead throughout in a race that projects to have moderate at best early splits. Hot On the Trail, from the scorching M. Glatt barn, drops to her lowest level ever, removes blinkers, and returns to dirt while retaining A. Cedillo. The concern is that this abbreviated sprint distance might be a tad sharp for a filly who lacks tactical sprint speed, which means she’ll need some help up front to have her best chance. Miss Bennet away since last summer, returns in a logical spot and is guaranteed a comfortable stalking trip from her outside draw. The M. Chew barn is perfectly capable of winning with come-backers, and this daughter of Jimmy Creed has numbers that fit in addition to a prior win over the Santa Anita main track.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: Cheap Cheap Cheap; 2-Smiling Annie; 6-Rosey Sky

Forecast: Cheap Cheap Cheap, in her second start off a layoff, draws the favorable inside post (especially so with the rails out 30 feet) and should be fitter and sharper after finishing third over this course and distance vs. similar in March with a career top speed figure. She’s trained well since, so we’re expecting another forward move from the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Square Eddie. Smiling Annie, fourth in the same race ‘Cheap just finished third in, has a prior win over the local lawn, should enjoy a second-flight, ground-saving trip, and is another live runner from the red-hot M. Glatt stable. Rosey Sky graduated over this course and distance two runs back while earning a speed figure that puts her in the hunt. Overmatched when trying the colts in her last start, she returns to face the girls today and may be quick enough from her outside draw to cross over and establish the running. Her maiden win was accomplished with a stalk-and-pounce trip so regular rider T. Pereira also has that option as well should the race flow dictate it.

RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Manresa; 8-Diva in Charge

Forecast: Manresa is progressing nicely with experience and appears well-spotted to earn her diploma from a favorable inside draw in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 miler for fillies and mares. Beaten a neck with an improved, career-top speed figure over this track and distance last time out, the R. Bell-trained daughter of Coil has trained solidly for her first start since March, so we’re expecting a similar, if not better, effort today. B. Blanc stays aboard and knows her well. Diva in Charge has been facing much tougher foes but even with this class drop she’ll have to leap forward considerably according to her speed figures to worry our top pick. A distant third in a $40,000 maiden seller in late January, the P. Eurton-trained filly makes a monumental jockey change to F. Prat, and on that basis alone can be expected to leave her previous form behind. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Manresa clearly preferred on top.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Odysseus; 5-Proud Pedro

Forecast: Odysseus is unbeaten in two starts, winning a maiden turf sprint and then stretching out and capturing a first-level allowance affair over this course and distance with a vastly improved speed figure, one that makes him a major threat once again. Though we wouldn’t consider the son of Candy Ride a speed type, it’s not entirely out of the question that he falls into the lead from his favorable rail draw in a race that projects to have very slow early fractions. Because regular rider J. Velez is no longer a bug, the R. Mandella-trained colt must pick up seven pounds, not a deal breaker, but not ideal, either. Proud Pedro can really turn it on late but has no tactical speed and seems likely to take the worst of it from a race-flow standpoint. Nonetheless, he’s strong on numbers, retains F. Prat, and continues to look sharp in the a.m. so we’re expecting the French-bred colt to fire a big shot. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Odysseus.

RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 9-Short of Ez; 10-Papa Turf

Forecast: The two main contenders in this $12,500 sprint for older horses both raced at Los Alamitos in a mixed-breed race last time out. Papa Turf has won three of his last five starts but all eight of his victories when facing strictly thoroughbreds have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. Comfortably drawn outside, the J. Mullins-trained gelding should be primed for another major effort and given his projected trip may be the most reliable. Short of Ez easily handled Papa Turf two runs back over the local main track and then was third with trouble at Los Al in an allowance race last month. The K. Mulhall-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and should be within range throughout and have his chance to beat ‘Turf again. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-King Parker; 8-Music to My Ears; 10-Mayan Warrior

Forecast: The main contention is this restricted (nw-2) sprint for $12,500 older horses should boil down to just three, with Mayan Warrior, favorably drawn outside, getting the edge on top. Definitely fit for having competed twice in the last month at Los Alamitos in mixed-breed competition, the S. Knapp-trained gelding finished third in both of those starts with some amount of trouble, but from where he’s drawn should have clear sailing and every chance with a stalking trip to win his first race since November of 2018. King Parker graduated from a modest maiden $20,000 group over this track and distance in March and is reasonably spotted in his first try vs. winners. He’s shown he can win from mid-pack and that’s probably where he projects to be during the early going. He’ll need a forward move based on speed figures but may have it in him. Music to My Ears plummets from the starter allowance $50,000 level after a couple of non-threatening efforts at Golden Gate Fields but in this league the son of Goldencents may improve enough to be a factor. He has enough early speed to be within range of the leaders, which is where the B. Koriner-trained gelding needs to be because with his grinding style he’ll never be capable of making up a lot of ground from the quarter pole home.

RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Take the One O One; 7-Tizamagician; 8-Nolo Contesto

Forecast: Tizamagician tackles older foes for the first time but if he continues to improve this promising 3-year-old should be up to the task. After beating maidens over this track and distance two runs back, the R. Mandella-trained colt was a close fourth in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3, and while it wasn’t the strongest graded stakes for 3-year-olds during the winter the effort still produced a significant forward move. The pace projects to be modest-to-average, so we’re expecting this son of Tiznow to be close up throughout. On pure numbers he is fast enough to win and recent workouts are promising. Take the One O One shows two dull comeback races after missing 2019 entirely, so it’s possible that the son of Acclamation isn’t what he once was. Still, recent workouts have been sharp, so with this return to the main track in a race that doesn’t project to have quick fractions the B. Koriner-trained stakes winner should be given one more chance to gain his top form. Nolo Contesto once beat Omaha Beach as a 3-year-old on this track at this trip but never followed through on that promise. Away since last fall and training well for his comeback, the J. Sadler-trained colt returns to dirt and switches to I. Rispoli, so if he’s ever going to return to his old self it’ll probably be in his first race back.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Goodtingscominpink; 6-On Mars; 7-Rose’s Crystal

Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden grass miler for state-bred fillies and mares. On Mars found her best stride too late when closing to be a distant second behind the stakes-quality Bella Vita and today stretches out for the first time while owning the pedigree to handle the distance. Her recent work tab is healthy and she’ll get the patient ride she needs with M. Smith staying aboard. Rose’s Crystal, a closing fourth over nine furlongs vs. similar in March, shortens up a furlong, removes blinkers, and switches to D. Van Dyke. She’s not particularly fast on numbers but at least they’re heading in the right direction. She should be heard from in the final furlong. Goodtingscominpink, away since last July, had a couple of races last year that could win this moderate affair and the work tab seems okay, so we’ll include her on a ticket or two as well.