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Sunday, May 31: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

May 31, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Master Recovery; 3-Fay Dan

Forecast: Fay Dan isn’t much but won’t have to be to graduate in this below par maiden $50,000 claiming miler that drew just five entrants. Away since last fall, the four-year-old Curlin gelding has trained well enough to be ready against this level of competition. We’ll give him a very slight edge on top over Master Recovery, a close third over this track and distance at this level two runs back and then beaten just over three lengths in a tougher maiden $75,000 seller on grass last time out. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Blackout: 4-Mystery Messenger

Forecast: Mystery Messenger, back sprinting on grass, has numbers that can win and recent workouts that indicate he’s right on edge. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding was victorious over this course and distance earlier in the year from tougher field and retains “win rider” U. Rispoli. Blackout, claimed back by P. Miller for $32,000 last time out, has a win at this level in early January that charts very well here and F. Prat stays aboard. The French-bred gelding didn’t’ get the best of trips when fourth vs. similar last time out but with a clean start and a ground-saving trip he’ll be formidable. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Mystery Messenger.

RACE 3: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Atina; 2-She Cherie

Forecast: Atina, first off the $16,000 claim by J. Mullins, was a lethargic fifth in a similar spot when last seen in mid-February but following this 3 � month layoff the Argentine-bred mare should return to form. From the rail she projects to draft into a comfortable ground-saving, stalking position and then have her chance when it matters. We’ll also include She Cherie, the likely controlling speed in her first try around two-turns (always a good angle). She’s fresh, training well, and in good hands. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post 2:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Quick Finish; 9-Morgan S.

Forecast: Quick Finish, in the frame in a pair of state-bred first-level allowance sprints on the main track, moves down to $35,000 restricted (nw-2) grass sprint. He’s won sprinting on turf in the past (at Del Mar), has numbers that are good enough to win, and offers excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 6-1. We’ll also include Morgan S. in our rolling exotics. The J. Mullins-trained gelding just failed at 2/5 in a mixed breed dash at Los Alamitos, but under these more favorable conditions we’re expecting the veteran gelding to bounce back in a big way. His narrow second place finish over this course and distance two runs back puts him right there.

RACE 5: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-My Super Mario; 3-Kingofjesters; 6-Hot Socks; 8-Scary Fast Smile

Forecast: This wide open maiden state-bred $50,000 claimer requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll go four deep and hope to get a decent price home. Kingofjesters is a first-timer with credentials to run well in a soft field. The 4-year-old son of Giacomo is late to the part but lands F. Prat and has shown enough ability in the a.m. to be a major player. Scary Fast Smile has trained reasonably well for his debut and is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger). He’s a fresh face in a field in which the known element doesn’t look particularly intimidating. My Super Mario was a beaten choice in his debut at this level but is wheeled back in the same spot as a first-time gelding in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. Hot Socks, away since last summer, might be a better type this time around for a clever barn. He earned speed figures as a two-year-old that makes him a fit with these.

RACE 6: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Sandal; 6-Sweet and Cheeky; 9-Rakassah

Forecast: Rakassah gets the worst of the draw and just failed at even money, so she may not be one to trust in this abbreviated grass sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. However, this does not appear to be a strong race for the level, so the Irish-bred filly probably deserves top billing in a race that we’ll include two others for protection. Sandal has trained well enough to warrant a least a little bit of a look in her debut, and we’ll also toss in Sweet and Cheeky, a first-timer by Candy Ride who hasn’t done anything special in the a.m. but may like the grass. If you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 7: Post 3:42 PT. Grade: X
Single: Ce Ce

Forecast: Ce Ce is listed at 3/5 on the morning line and after winning a pair of Grade-1 events – the Beholder Mile over this track and the Apple Blossom H.-G1 at Oaklawn Park – the daughter of Elusive Quality appears ready for another winning effort. Recent local workouts indicate she remains on top of her game, so we’ll make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 8: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Seaside Dancer; 5-Miss Flawless; 8-Tonahutu

Forecast: Tonahutu stretches out to her preferred distance, drops into a claimer for the first time and has worked well enough of late to indicate she’s ready to regain her best form. She’s winless in five starts over the local lawn but against this group we’re expecting her to get her confidence back. Seaside Dancer may be the controlling speed trip from her rail draw and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. Freshened since early February, she’s won off short layoffs in the past and retains regular rider A. Cedillo. Miss Flawless returns to grass, drops into class, picks up F. Prat and should be running on late. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Tonahutu slightly on top.