Log In

Friday, June 5: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 5, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

Laurel Park – 7th race. Post Time: 3:51 ET
11-Francatelli (7/2)

Looks to be an extremely live and well-meant first-timer from the C. Lynch barn (superior starts with debut runners) in this maiden special weight turf sprint. The barn’s “to to” rider X. Perez takes the call on the son of City Zip (terrific grass sire), who sports an impressive workout resume that a couple of bullet drills including a nice breeze around dogs on the Laurel lawn May 31 as the final tightener. At 7/2 on the morning line he offers intriguing value both in the win pole and rolling exotic play.

Belmont Park – 10th race. Post Time: 6:08 ET
9 – Uncle George (8-1)

Shows a very impressive series of drills for his long-awaited debut and we’re expecting a big effort from the son of Uncle Mo for the powerful jockey/trainer team of F. Alvarado and C. Clement. From a stable that excels with first-timer starters, this $310,000 Saratoga yearling purchase displayed plenty of zip over the deep Payson Park training track before arriving in New York, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Eagle in the Sky; 3-Bolden

Forecast: Bolden sports a bullet :47 2/5 gate drill (fastest of 33) last week to have him fit and ready in this juvenile California-bred sprint and goes for the always-potent P. Miller/F. Prat combo, two factors that will ensure the son of Square Eddie will get plenty of backing on the tote. A $100,000 yearling purchase at Pomona last September, he’s out of the mare Bas, a bottom-rung maiden claiming route winner from a modest female family, so we can only assume that this is one superior-looking individual. In the past, this jockey has needed some convincing to ride first-time starting babies, so we must assume this colt has a story attached. Eagle in the Sky has done some good working in the morning leading up to his debut (see PDF workout report, above), including a recent gate drill in company and besting the older Include the Tax while displaying good early speed and professionalism. The M. McCarthy barn doesn’t often win with first-timers but this son of Sky Mesa looks cranked up and ready to go. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-So Much Happy; 5-Sunriser; 8-Sutro

Forecast: This starter optional claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on grass seems likely to have a faster-than-par early pace and seems likely to set things up for the late-running contingent. On the other hand, with the rails up 30 feet, inside speed tends to carry farther than one might anticipate. Because of the volatile nature of the projected race flow, a spread in rolling exotic play might be required. Sunriser may be the most dangerous of the closing types, especially if her improvement continues. She broke her maiden for a high-priced tag off a layoff in March rallying against the grain in a clever performance and been kept on edge in the interim for a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners (in this case, nearly three months). The V. Cerin-trained daughter of City Zip retains top grass rider U. Rispoli and is sure to receive the patient ride that brings out her best. Sutro, a grinding type without a true turn of foot, had fractions to run at when a closing third in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer over the local lawn last month and earned a speed figure that, while fast enough to win this race, may have flattered her just a bit. She retains M. Smith and with some help up front should be heard from in the final furlong. So Much Happy lands the golden rail and has only one way to go, on the front end for as far as she can stay there. If not pressured early – and in these turf routes you never can be sure just what the pace will be – the daughter of Twirling Candy could take this field a very long way. We’ll try to survive and advanced using just these three in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to go deeper – and your budget allows – go right ahead.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Justin’s Quest; 4-Dia de Pago; 7-Claim of Passion

Forecast: Justin’s Quest may be the controlling speed in this restricted (nw-2) S25,000 claiming main track miler and this monument class drop from tough first-level allowance company combined with the switch to F. Prat it’s easy to see why he’s listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. His numbers are faster than par for this level, so with a recent outing over the track and nice recent breeze to tick him over the son of Justin Phillip really shouldn’t have any excuses. Dia de Pago has been unplaced in his last five starts – you have go back three years to find his maiden win – but this substantial class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $25,000 level could make a world of difference to the V. Cerin-trained gelding. On pure numbers the son of Macho Uno is a strong fit and this level but his style suggests he’ll be doing his best work late, and in a race that projects to be slowly run early his task won’t be easy. Claim of Passion is yet another class dropper – this will be his first start ever for a tag – that is worth including in rolling exotic play. The son of Acclamation has looked good in the a.m. in his recent works while getting fit for his first outing since January and should fold into a good pace-stalking trip outside and have every chance. He’s slower on speed figures than he needs to be but has won over this main track in the past, switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider A. Cedillo and may have a bit more improvement in him than most of the others.

RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Arctic Roll; 9-Teachers Big Dream

Forecast: Arctic Roll returns to the claiming ranks and appears to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 seller over a mile on grass. A sharp winner with a big figure over this course and distance three runs back, the A. Lerner-trained mare is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and projects to draft into an ideal second-flight, stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Teachers Big Dream is another that should greatly appreciate this softer assignment. A winner under these conditions three races back in a state-bred event but then pitched too high in a pair of tougher fast-paced entry-level open allowance events, the E. Truman-trained filly picks up top turf rider U. Rispoli and should find herself in a stalking position with far easier fractions to deal with. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with clear preference on top to Arctic Roll.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 62-Tromador; 6-Mayan Warrior

Forecast: Here’s another restricted claimer, this one for (nw-2) $12,500 claimers in a race that may boil down to a couple of recent money-burners. Mayan Warrior failed at even money when a close runner-up in a similar affair two weeks ago and that, along with his overall record of 1-for-15 makes him a bit difficult to trust. But in a race that might better belong at Los Alamitos, the S. Knapp-trained gelding, a voided claim for $25,000 for earlier this year, may deserve top billing by default. Tromador enters this race after failing twice at odds-on in mixed-breed races at Los Al. The Exchange Rate colt, in the frame in his last four outings, does have a maiden win over the local main track on his resume and the proper style for this extended sprint trip, hence his favorite’s role on the morning line at 2-1. In a race that offers little in the way of wagering, we’ll otherwise pass, other than to include both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Kookie Gal; 5-Muchly-GB

Forecast: Muchly-GB may have hit the front too soon when worn down in the final stages of a similar first-level allowance turf event last month but at this longer trip the English-bred filly should get the patient handling she requires and have her chance to register in first U.S. victory. That said, the pace flow in this nine-furlong affair looks soft – Nice Ice projects as the controlling speed – so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the S. Callaghan-trained filly draft into a stalking position and then try to seal the deal from there. Kookie Gal has numbers that fit, winding up a respectable fourth (beaten just a length) at 22-1 in the faster split of the two races for this condition May 15. She picks up F. Prat, has a prior win over the local lawn, and has plenty of room for further improvement. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-World O Luck; 10-Next Revolt

Forecast: Though he just earned a career-top speed figure in his third career start when fifth in maiden special weight main track miler two weeks ago, Next Revolt, purchased for $130,000 last year at OBS, is being tossed away today in a modest $25,000 maiden claimer, indicating that his connections want to cut bait. Actually, it’s not a bad move; the son of Revolutionary clearly isn’t going anywhere and we suspect his connections simply want to move on. But from the 10-hole the D. Blacker-trained colt doesn’t have to win, though if he can negotiate and kind of decent trip he probably will from a field that on paper looks pretty bleak. If it’s not him, it could be World O Luck, who stretches out for the first time, drops from a tougher maiden $50,000 affair in February and returns in a spot that could produce a front-running trip from a favorable inside draw. Maybe, as the controlling speed, he gets brave? While recognizing that Next Revolt is clearly the one to beat, we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.

RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Fabozzi; 5-Contagion; 7-Publicius Syrus

Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for $32,000 claimers over a mile. None of these are trustworthy, so we’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Contagion chased tougher off a long layoff last month and is realistically dropped in class with the expectation that this group, along with all-important race under his belt, will propel the D. O’Neill-trained gelding back to his best form. A prior winner over the local lawn and reunited with “win rider A. Cedillo, the Fed Biz gelding has a good stalking/pressing style that should keep him free of trouble and two recent workouts that indicate health and fitness. Fabozzi returns to grass and is a two-time winner on this course and distance. Very strong in the speed figure department based on his recent dirt, form the son of Sydney’s Candy moves up a level in a sign of confidence but switches to E. Roman after Cedillo opted for Contagion. Regardless, the M. Glatt-trained gelding is a contender. Pubilius Syrus, in for a tag for the first time in his first outing since January (and just his second since last summer). Clearly with his best days behind him, the son of Candy Ride won two listed stakes here as a 3-year-old and at this level, but the barn has a weak percentage with layoff runners. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up but not much more than that.