Log In

Sunday, June 7: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 7, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

Belmont Park – 4th race. Post Time: 2:55 ET
2 – Pandamom (5-1)

Was given a run in her debut last fall at Aqueduct, displaying good late speed to wind up a distant third without being knocked about in a middle distance turf affair for juvenile fillies. Returns for C. Clement, who has strong stats with layoff runners and a work tab that should have her plenty fit and ready. The daughter of Uncle Mo doesn’t have all that much to beat in this New York-bred affair and will offer wagering value at or near her morning line of 5-1.

Belmont Park – 5th race. Post Time: 3:27 ET
1A – River Nile

Cairo Prince colt brought $200,000 as a yearling at Saratoga and debuts in a New York-bred maiden race over a mile that didn’t come up all that strong. First-timers from K. Breen barn often run better than they work, and this colt actually has done some very good things in the morning, including a bullet three furlong gate drill (:35 flat, fastest of 36) last week to have him sharp and ready. The barn’s go-to rider E. Cancel takes the call, so at 6-1 on the morning line he represents an excellent wagering opportunity in the win pool as and a potential rolling exotic single.

Churchill Downs – 8th race. Post Time: 4:46 ET
3 – Inish Gluaire (6-1)

Ran better than the line will show when splitting the field after a wide trip in a strong maiden sprint at Oaklawn Park last month and can be expected to produce a significant forward move for a barn that has superior stats with second-times starts. Purchased for $825,000 at the 2019 OBS March sale, the son of Bernardini from two-time Canadian champion mare Inish Glora shows four easy workouts since that race, retains R. Santana, and projects to be within striking range throughout in a field without a whole lot of early speed. At 6-1 on the morning line the S. Asmussen-trained colt offers value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Never Easy; 8-Cayman’s Cobra

Forecast: Caymans Cobra has looked pretty good in the morning while preparing for his first outing since last October and should return at least as well as he left. The R. Baltas barn has superior stats with layoff runners (31%) and that, along with always-dangerous blinkers off angle, makes this son of Super Saver intriguing in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming turf miler that came up relatively soft. Never Easy, freshened since late February and with a prior win over the course, lands red-hot F. Prat while showing up in a claimer for the first time. These should be his friends. At the price we’ll try Caymans Cobra on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post 1:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Carrie’s Success; 7-Majestic Diva

Forecast: Bay area invader Carrie’s Success vans down for an extended sprint that isn’t offered at her home track and this seven furlong trip should suit her perfectly, especially with F. Prat climbing aboard. A synthetic course specialist and winless in four starts over the local dirt track, the veteran mare nonetheless rates top billing due to her consistency, sharp recent form, winning connections and speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. Majestic Diva earned a shopping 88 Beyer speed figure over this track and distance three runs back but hasn’t come close to that in two starts since, so we’re not quite sure which version we’re going to see today. She lands the cozy outside post, projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip and should have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Carrie’s Success.

RACE 3: Post 1:37 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Burn Me Twice; 4-Black Storm

Forecast: Burn Me Twice ran too well to lose over this track and distance when last seen in early March and returns in a similar spot after ticking over with a series of nice, easy drills. The B. Spawr barn has excellent stats with come-backers so we’re expecting this veteran gelding to fire his usual shot, which could be good enough to win. Class-dropper Black Storm, fourth vs. $25,000 sellers last month, drops for the money run and is the one to fear most. The J. Mullins-trained gelding is a two-time winner over the local main track, a strong fit on speed figures, and easily the most dangerous of the closing types. We’ll prefer Burn Me Twice slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Appreciated; 7-Mr Paytience

Forecast: Mr Paytience may have been a tad short when second to stable mate Whooping Jay in a similar state-bred allowance sprint last month but will no doubt be fit and ready today in this extended sprint that most likely will feature a modest early pace. Perfectly drawn outside, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should be well positioned on or near the lead and then have his chance to kick home when set down. Appreciated seems likely to be prominent throughout from the rail, and after finishing a close fourth in a hot race last time out – runner-up Kneedeepinsnow came back to gallop yesterday – the Acclamation gelding is strictly the one to beat. He earned a career top speed figure in that race and then returned to work a sharp half mile (:47 2/5, fourth fastest of 52), further evidence that he’s ready for a top try. We expect the winner will be one or the other and both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post 2:42 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Tagline; 3-Constantia; 6-Colombian Gold; 8-Surface

Forecast: We’ll spread four-deep in this maiden $62,500 grass grab bag for fillies and mares and hope to survive and advance. Tagline is improving with racing, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw, and with just three career outings has plenty of room for further development. She closed willingly against the grain in straight maiden company when last seen in March and faces easier. Columbian Gold, a solid second over this course and distance in a similar affair in early March, must be considered a major player off that effort and goes for the red-hot F. Prat/P. Miller combo. The daughter of Dialed In projects to draft into a nice second-flight position and then be ready to pounce when called upon. Surface shows up in a seller for the first time in her first outing since November and is a fit on figures. While she has failed to hit the board in three prior starts over the local lawn, those races came against better. Constantia has the two-sprints and a stretch-out pattern we like combined with the always-dangerous maiden-to-maiden claimer angle. We can’t say she’s bred to improve routing on turf and this trainer/jockey combo doesn’t have any history of success, but we’ll still toss her in on a ticket or two as a saver.

RACE 6: Post 3:14 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dark Prince; 2-Sash; 6-Julius

Forecast: Here’s a tough race loaded with question marks. Tread lightly. Julius may not be one to trust, but if he minds his manners he may be capable of handling this field. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has the two prerequisite sprints under his belt off a layoff and seems primed to stretch and shows his best stuff while picking up one of the stable’s “go-to” riders, U. Rispoli. The son of Tapit can win a race like this if he decides to run straight and true, and in a field without any effective true closers he’ll be tough from a pace-stalking position. Dark Prince may be better on turf, but he trains well on the main track, and after a speed/fade effort in his comeback should be fitter today. We like the blinkers off angle as well. Sash turned in a solid effort vs. similar here last month when winding up second and a repeat of that effort today puts him right there. He’s the likely choice and perhaps the most reliable of the main contenders.

RACE 7: Post 3:46 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Red Diamond; 3-Predictable Tully; 8-Viazar; 10-Sapphire Silk

Forecast: This is a real messy affair, a maiden claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares in which no result would surprise us. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. The debuting Red Diamond has trained fairly well for R. McAnally, seems to have some speed, and if she breaks cleanly from the rail she might make some noise at a nice price. Predictably Tully shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time – you know how effective that angle can be – and while her numbers aren’t strong they’re good enough to win a race like this. The J. Mullins-trained import seems most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and given that type of race she could produce the last run. Sapphire Silk is stuck way outside in her first-off-the-claim for S. Knapp (25% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle) and this lightly-raced daughter of Verrazano could move forward considerably in her first start on grass (bred for it). She has enough early speed to be dangerous so at 8-1 on the morning you have to use her. The first-timer Viazar has shown some ability in the a.m., and while this barn doesn’t win often with debut runners the daughter of Tapizar is a dangerous fresh in a wide open grass grab bag.

RACE 8: Post 4:18 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-McKinzie

Forecast: McKinzie is unbeaten at seven furlongs and will be odds-on to remain that way in this year’s edition of the Triple Bend S.-G2. His cozy outside draw that will allow M. Smith to dictate the race, and the son of Street Sense has trained as well as ever, has a history of firing fresh, and simply out-classes this field. He’s a short-priced, highly-logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 4:48 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Approved for Flyby; 9-A Melis

Forecast: We’ll double the finale, an abbreviated maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares. A Melis has trained very well for her debut and should be plenty fit for a barn that has good stats with first-timers. Bred to be quick (Jimmy Creed out of a half-sister to Forego S.-G1 winner Pomeroy), the T. Yakteen-trained filly hasn’t really been asked for speed in most of her local works, but when she breezed at the OBS Sale as a 2-year-old she went in 10 1/5 seconds, so we’re expecting to see her display some early zip. He might be a nice Cal-bred filly. Approved for Flyby exits a fast race and has a right to improve in her second career start after finishing a distant third behind subsequent stakes winner Big Sweep. She gets blinkers and F. Prat, and if she breaks running from the rail she should be right there.