by Brian Nadeau
June 12, 2020
With a mandatory Rainbow 6 in the offing Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and a pool that could swell to $5 million, let’s dive in to what looks like a tough, but hardly unreasonable sequence, and see what we can come up with.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 2:00PM ET Saturday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1 (3:14 ET): 3up MSW at 1-mile (turf)
I’m spreading in the first leg, especially with the must-use ML favorite, #12 LEADING WEST (2-1), drawing terribly and running the risk of being extremely wide into a quick first turn, not to mention his turf form isn’t better than any of these. I’m adding four others on the top line, with #3 CONSTITUTIONAL PAL (9-2) leading the way off a troubled and much improved comeback, followed by #6 IMPERIAL MOMENT (4-1), who has speed and could clear this group with an aggressive ride. Tab the tote on #1 ALASTOR (8-1), a Joseph firster (12% on debut) with a slew of bullets and sharp works leading up to this, while longshot #7 METCALF (15-1) has one true turf race showing, and it was a good 2nd against better, so don’t sleep on him.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 3,6,12,1,7 (listed in order of preference)
As you will see, the B-list in this sequence is an expansive one, so I’m going to have to use my “Super A” strategy to make things affordable. If you’re followed me in this space before you know what that is, but to refresh, the Super A’s are the best of the best of my top line picks, which in turn helps make the B tickets fall into a budget and not get overly expensive. So, while on the A tickets I can use all my top line picks, on the B tickers I’ll only use who I designate as my Super A’s, which I’ll list below when all is said and done. As for the opening leg, I don’t want to be out after just one race, and I mentioned this is a spread in my eyes anyway, so I’ve got #10 MIGHTY TOUGH (30-1), #2 FAKE MUSE (6-1), #5 SEVEN CHANNELS (20-1), and #11 LUCKY STRIPE (15-1), all as secondary contenders who could pull the upset with a move forward. As an aside, the ML here is so weak and poorly done that you should do yourself a favor and make your own for a sequence like this, since it will steer you in the right direction, as a horse like Mighty Tough, who actually has the second-highest last race Beyer speed figure in the field (on turf), is more like an 8-1 shot, as opposed to 30-1, yet anyone who is quickly playing a ticket will probably just glance at the latter and disregard a horse who has a very realistic chance of winning.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 10,2,5,11
Potential B add ins: NONE
Leg 2: 3yo 12.5k claimer at 6 furlongs
I think this is another spread as well, with several having a big chance and looking much the same on paper, though I’ll use just two on top; #7 SHANGHAI MOON (4-1) and #8 MAN WITH A PLAN (2-1). The former should like getting back to a fast main track, as the close 2nd two-back makes him a big player here, but his real attribute is his stalking gear in a race loaded with speed, as this one looks destined to fall apart in the lane. The latter has plenty of speed and did well to draw outside, and he’ll win this if he runs back to the N2L score last time for Pletcher, and the fact he now goes off the claim for D’Angelo, a huge 38% angle, says he could run even better here, which would make the rest run for second-money.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 7,8 (listed in order of preference)
It’s tough to separate all the speed horses, as they all seem good enough on their day, and if something funky happens and one should clear, it could severely change the flow of the race, so I’m going to use them all on the backup line; #4 CAPTAIN DUKE (3-1), #6 VINCENT WILLIAM (7-2), and #1 SMASH (15-1). I’m also using #3 OUR TIME (15-1), who could very well be off form, but drops in class and is the only other runner who has shown an ability to settle and pass horses, so maybe the race flow wakes him up.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 4,6,3,1
Potential B add ins: NONE
Leg 3: 3up 12.5k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
If you’re on a budget you could do worse than singling #4 DONJI (7-2), who is simply better than these on turf and has been running faster against better, now drops slightly against what is a pretty modest group, and looks more like 9-5 or so. With that being said, I’m also going to use #7 COWBOY CULTURE (6-1), since he he’s been facing better the best competition on turf and now goes off the claim for Plesa, and while that’s a ho-hum 0-for-6 angle, it’s worth nothing this is a very sharp barn that rarely makes a claim, so clearly he saw something he liked here.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 4,7 (listed in order of preference)
I’m probably being a bit too expansive on the B-line, since I tabbed Donji as a potential single, but this is a huge sequence and pool we’re talking about, so I want to be there if something crazy happens. The post really hurts #9 GRAND NENUCO (4-1), as does an October layoff, but his prior form is very solid, while #10 MORNING STRIDE (5-2), who is a hilarious favorite, runs off the Sancal claim (4-for-13) and gets back to the turf after an easy off-the-turf win for Maker. Speaking of bad ML’s, #1 MAJESTIC LUNA (30-1) looks more like 8-1 off his turf form, which is actually as good as anyone other than Donji, and he drew best of all too, while #7 COWBOY CULTURE (6-1) can stalk and has been running good enough of late to warrant inclusion.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 9,10,1,7
Potential B add ins: NONE
Leg 4: 3up 10k N2L at 6 furlongs
Another toughie that sees a field that seems to have a lot of moving parts and therefore makes things difficult, and leaves me with very little in terms of a strong opinion. The class drop and upside of #6 JUST US (12-1) makes him appealing, and the dirt debut win was solid, and he’s another incorrectly priced, as he looks more like 9-2 or so. I have no knocks on the favorite, #7 FLAWLESS MOON (5-2), who will win this if he runs back to the fast 2nd two-back, though I wonder if that’s more the exception than the rule, especially since he’s now three starts removed from D’Angelo. If things get heated up front then #5 HARPER GO LUCKY (8-1) will come into play late, and he’s been running in some very live races too, while #3 TRAVELIN GAMBLER (10-1) might be going the wrong way, but he too drops, and if you’re forgiving and toss his last two on off tracks, his fast track form plays with these.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 6,7,5,3 (listed in order of preference)
The secondary players are a lot tougher to trust, as both #8 RESERVENOTATTAINED (6-1) and #10 BIBLEMAN (4-1) come off complete no shows, while #2 NEVERSTOPDREAMING (7-2) drops but still doesn’t look good enough, but the first two have run well enough in the past to win this with a form reversal, while the latter isn’t impossible if he moves up a bit on the drop, so they make the cut.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 8,2,10
Potential B add ins: #4 War Act (15-1)
Leg 5: 3up 55k handicap at 1-mile
Here’s likely where we separate the contenders from the pretenders, as anyone on a budget who needs a single will take what they hope is the free square with #4 DIAMOND OPS (8-5), a multiple graded stakes winner who is by far the best horse here. however, it’s also obvious he’s prepping for bigger (likely at Keeneland), so just how cranked is he for a meaningless 55k purse? The problem is he could still win this at 75%, but I’m going to get a bit cheeky and not single him, and I’m also not just going to take the obvious second-choice, #9 Math Wizard (more on him below), because if my other pick should win, it will really blow things up. And that other pick is #6 RED CRESCENT (10-1), who got fried chasing a hot pace in his comeback last time but can win this with his best, should trip out off a pair of speeds (#7 and #3), and will probably fall right through the wagering cracks.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 4,6 (listed in order of preference)
I don’t have anything that much against grade I winner #9 MATH WIZARD (3-1), who is the obvious next likeliest winner should Diamond Ops come up short, but his lack of speed is a big detriment going a one-turn mile, and adding blinkers seems a bit panicky after a no-show return last time, so I just don’t like the vibes in this corner, especially since you know darn well this was not the original plan and seems like a major regrouping/here’s hoping he rebounds kind of spot. Since it’s affordable to use another, I’m slide in #8 NOBLE DRAMA (9-2), since his one-turn form is solid enough to make him a contender here, and Bravo comes back after likely moving too soon when he made the lead only to be run down in the Big Drama, so with that experience, he could time it just right this time.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 9,8
Potential B add ins: NONE
Leg 6: 4up 8k claimer* at 1-mile
I’d like to think we’re going to be alive for big balloons should we be fortunate enough to get to the cashout leg, as there are several races preceding this that give us legitimate shots at getting a nice price home. And this race certainly looks like it could offer one, and the good news is that I’ve been condensed enough in the first five legs to spread deep here, which was the plan all along, since attrition could turn a logical 8-1 winner on the toteboard into 25-1 in the sequence, and that’s where you can really get some bang for your buck. Basically I’ll use anyone logical and hope to get a price home, especially since #1 JUST KIDDING (9-5), who will win this with his typical run, exits a very suspect effort when claimed by Joseph (39%) for 16k, and now immediately runs back for 8k, which is never a good sign, and suggests you’re not getting his typical run. An outside attack post could be key for #10 DEXTER ROAD (8-1), who got back untracked on the drop last time and has several races showing that would put him on the line with these, while the speed of #6 SO LONG CHUCK (7-2) makes him a huge player, as there’s actually not a lot of early lick here, and while he probably won’t improve from Barboza off the Matier claim (0-for-4), he might not have to either. I’ll be a bit forgiving with #12 KAHRAMANI (12-1), who didn’t fire off the Quiroz claim last time in the slop, and has now run poorly twice in a row, so he could be off form, but Drawing Away excels in these spots, and this is a solid barn, and the price will be right too, so even though it’s probably a bit improbable he gets back to the Joseph races, I’ll add him and hope just maybe there’s more here than meets the eye. My total stab, shot in the dark, blow it all up horse is #7 YEAR OF THE KITTEN (20-1), who will hopefully run on a fast main track, something he’s never done, but Pat Reynolds, who may be winless on the year, knows what he’s doing, and adds blinkers here, and is intent on running this one on the dirt, so I’m coming along at a big number.
Rainbow 6 A horses: 10,1,6,12,7 (listed in order of preference)
I’ll use the only other three that could possibly win, even though they are a decided cut below the top-3 above, as #5 DESERT GENERAL (4-1) has lost 10 straight and was just 3 lengths behind ‘Chuck, while #2 TELL ME A STORY (20-1) has also lost 10 straight but has run well in several of them, and #11 COULD BE (10-1) has never run on a fast main track and is a turf horse, but is 3-1-1-0 on off tracks, so he could wake up here.
Rainbow 6 B horses: 5,2,11
Potential B add ins: NONE
The suggested tickets:
Main Ticket: 3,6,12,1,7 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 6,7,5,3 with 4,6 with 10,1,6,12,7 = $160
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,2,5,11 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 6,7 with 4 with 10,1,6 = $19.20
Leg 2 B Backup: 3,6,12 with 4,6,3,1 with 4,7 with 6,7 with 4 with 10,1,6 = $28.80
Leg 3 B Backup: 3,6,12 with 7,8 with 9,10,1,7 with 6,7 with 4 with 10,1,6 = $28.80
Leg 4 B Backup: 3,6,12 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 8,2,10 4 with 10,1,6 = $28.80
Leg 5 B Backup: 3,6,12 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 6,7 with 9,8 with 10,1,6 = $28.80
Leg 6 B Backup: 3,6,12 with 7,8 with 4,7 with 6,7 with 4 with 5,2,11 = $14.40