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Saturday, June 13: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 13, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

Woodbine – 7th race. Post Time: 4:21 ET
4-Clayton (3-1)

Was one of the most impressive debut maiden winners of the season last November when he overcame a slow start to win by more than seven furlongs in a fast, highly-rated affair over the Woodbine all-weather surface. Returns in the 6F listed Woodstock Stakes after wintering in Florida, where he worked well enough to expect a major effort in his sophomore bow. The son of Bodemeister should develop into an outstanding 3-year-old and while today’s assignment clearly is a step up in class, the son of Bodemeister should offer good wagering value at or near his morning line of 3-1.

Belmont Park – 7th race. Post Time 4:32 ET
5 - Cost Benefit-G2 (5/2)

Debuting English-bred filly has done everything in the morning like a top prospect and should be plenty fit and ready for a winning effort in this maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. The daughter of the top class British stallion Dansili goes for the powerful C. Brown/J. Rosario team (42%) and catches a field that she simply should out-class. Let’s hope we can get close to her morning line of 7/2 in both the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

Woodbine – 8th race. Post Time: 4:53 ET
10 – New York Groove (5/2)

She’s unbeaten in four starts sprinting (each over a synthetic surface) so we’re expecting this multi-stakes winning daughter of Verrazano to regain her best form in this six furlong listed stakes for 3-year-old fillies. Drawn comfortably outside, shortening to her best trip and showing a bullet five furlong drill (:59 flat, fastest of 24) over the local main strip, the M. Trombetta-trained filly is plenty fast of numbers and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight stalking position. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a play in the win pool and in the exotics as well.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Mamba Queen; 6-Spicy Sommelier; 7-Smoothlikebuttah

Forecast: Mamba Queen, a Square Eddie filly out of a half-sister to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Eddie Haskell (also by Square Eddie) brought $70,000 at the OBS March Sale after drilling a quarter mile in :21 flat but was under urging to do so and never changed leads. Though the local tab doesn’t jump off the page, she obviously can run some. Spicy Sommelier shows a modest work tab at San Luis Rey Downs but has the red-hot combo of P. Miller and F. Prat in her corner and on that factor alone you have to use her. Among those that have raced, Smoothlikebuttah was a private purchase by clients of S. Knapp after walking out of the gate and then rallying to be a distant fourth in her debut in late May. Let’s hope the daughter of Mr. Big doesn’t pull that same stunt today. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Smiling Annie; 5-Much Macho Woman

Forecast: Smiling Annie lands a lovely inside draw (so effective when the rails are up) and should settle into a comfortable ground-saving trip while on or near the lead in a field without much early zip. She’s better than her last pair of races show and has a nice recent three-furlong bullet blowout (:35.1, fastest of 18) to have her right on edge. Mucho Macho Woman, freshened since February and training well for R. Ellis, earned a number two runs back that would win this race, but that runaway score came on the dirt and she’s unproven on grass. From her outside (of only five) draw, she’ll no doubt try to pop and go. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Smiling Annie on top.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Manresa; 6-Our Bonnie Lass

Forecast: Trainer T. R. Bell III holds the aces in this bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler with Manresa (4/5) and Our Bonnie Lass (2-1) sure to receive the bulk of the play. On pure numbers Manresa is the much better of the two but has been pretty much exposed, while first time Lasix user ‘Lass, with just one start on her resume, may have more room to improve after closing a huge gap to be third sprinting. We’ll pass the race other than to include both in our rolling exotics in a truly forgettable affair.

RACE 4: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Worthy Turk; 4-Seeking Refuge

Forecast: Worthy Turk, a good second while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a similar restricted (nw-2) $25,000 turf miler last month, is 6/5 on the morning line to handle this task for the P. Miller/F. Prat team and should have little difficulty in doing so. Yes, his record suggests he prefers to run second and third more than winning so far in his career but against this group he’ll truly have no excuse. Seeking Refuge is worth including on a ticket or two as a backup. The D. O’Neill-trained colt graduated up north last month with an okay number and should enjoy a similar pace-stalking trip. A bullet half mile drill at San Luis Rey Downs (:48 2/5, fastest of 11) last week indicates he’s doing well and perhaps ready to produce another forward move.

RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Queensbeccaandjane; 5-Blazing Charm; 7-Little Miss Ellie

Forecast: We’ll triple the fifth race, a maiden $50,000 state-bred extended sprint for fillies and mares. Blazing Charm was off slowly but then produced a solid steady run to pick up the pieces and finish second in a similar affair in March and today gets an extra furlong to work with while retaining F. Prat. She’s likely to improve off that bit of experience and may have upside that most of the others don’t. Queensbeccaandjane is progressing with racing, having her Beyer speed figure improve 17 points between her first and second outing. She was a willing but distant runner-up at this level two weeks ago and this will be her third start in a month so let’s hope she can step forward again.Little Miss Ellie, drawn comfortably outside, makes her debut for capable connections with a work tab that should have her plenty fit. How good does she really have to be? Toss her in.

RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Desert Law

Forecast: Desert Law, a runaway winner with a career top speed figure in this race last year, makes his first start since finishing a strong runner-up in the Bing Crosby S.-G1 at Del Mar 11 months ago. The works are strong, so we expect the veteran gelding to fire a big shot off the bench, good enough to return a winner in this five-runner state-bred sprint stakes. With F. Prat aboard the D. O’Neill-trained son of Desert Code, you probably won’t even get the 6/5 that he’s listed on the morning line, so while we can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, it’s a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.

RACE 7: Post 4:06 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Hit the Seam; 4-Fratelli; 6-Kris’ Wild Cat

Forecast: Fratelli may have been a tad short when finishing third after pressing the pace in a similar starter/optional claimer in his comeback in March but sports a steady, healthy series of works since and should produce a forward move, assuming he transfers in dirt form to grass. However, the Munnings gelding probably will have to deal with Hit the Seam during the early stages, with ‘Seam likely to enjoy the jet stream effect of his highly-favorable inside draw with the rails set out at 20 feet. If these two go at each other from the get-go, Kris’s Wild Kat should be able to fold over into a stalk-and-pounce position. The R. Baltas-trained gelding has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, two nice, easy breezes since raced, and, oh yes, retains F. Prat. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then, due to the anticipated race flow, press with extra tickets keying Kris’ Wild Cat on top.

RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gingham; 5-Been Studying Her

Forecast: Been Studying Her is favorably drawn outside and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, so with F. Prat riding her back the daughter of Fast Anna is the likely choice and one to beat following a fast-closing third in the Evening Jewel S. last month. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go a bit lower. Gingham is very interesting. The B. Baffert-trained filly continues to impress in the a.m. and this, her ninth career starts, will be her first in a sprint. The daughter of Quality Road switches to the barn’s latest “go-to” rider M. Smith and projects to draft into a good stalking, ground-saving position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Been Studying Her probably deserves a slight edge on top but both should be included in your rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Little No Way; 4-Jen Go Unchained; 6-Dark Hedges; 7-More Honor

Forecast: The finale is a messy restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint over seven furlongs. We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics with little-to-no conviction. Dark Hedges drops drastically in class, returns to the main track, sports the route-to-sprint angle and won the last time he appeared for this tag. He’s the controlling speed and could get very brave if not pressured early. More Honor is another dropping sharply in price and projects to fold into a good stalking spot. On pure numbers he should be right there throughout. Little No Way is the 2-1 morning line favorite probably due to the presence of F. Prat in the saddle. He has back speed figures that can win but may need turf to show his best stuff. Jen Go Unchained was a voided claim for $12,500 in late May but is back in the entries so we’ll assume he’s okay. First or second in five of 12 career starts, the R. Becerra-trained gelding should at least get a piece of it.