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Indiana Derby Day Picks with 1/ST BET Assistance

by Jeremy Plonk

July 8, 2020

The season’s biggest card at Indiana Grand takes place Wednesday with 12 races, half of them in the stakes ranks, beginning at 2:20 pm ET. Indiana Grand opened its 2020 season June 15 and has conducted just over 100 races at the meeting. Favorites have hit 35% during that time, significantly under the 39% national average in that same span. Races 7-10 will comprise an all-stakes pick four, while the $100,000-guaranteed late pick five will be offered on Races 8-12 and concludes in the maiden ranks following a quartet of featured stakes.

I’ve driven the 1/ST BET stats, powered by Betmix, for my handicappers’ take and also included the exclusive 1/ST INDEX artificial intelligence selections based on each race’s top 10 handicapping factors from the 1/ST BET app.

Race 7
Jeremy’s tip: #9 Two Last Words (2-1 ML) not only has a strong local mark, but his jockey-trainer tandem of Fernando De la Cruz and Tim Glyshaw has posted a 12: 5-2-2 record in their last dozen pairings at Indiana Grand, dating back to last November. Their ROI has been $2.19 for every $1 bet during the run and they are 2: 1-1-0 in stakes during the streak. The question is distance for many of these, but finding a strong-finishing alternative isn’t obvious. This looks like a single-or-spread-deep race.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#9 Two Last Words (30%W, 49%P, 61%S)
#7 Mai Tai’s Gem (23%W, 34%P, 52%S)
#5 Strong Tide (15%W, 23%P, 36%S)

Race 8
Jeremy’s tip: #12 She’sonthewarpath (5-2 ML) may be the horse to beat, but has a tough post position. Since 2013, the 12-hole is 10: 1-0-0 in Indiana Grand stakes races at this 1-1/16 miles turf distance; 3 runners at 9-2 or less odds finished sixth or worse. Add depth with #1 No May Lady (8-1) as sire Uncle Mo’s offspring are a strong 21% winner on this local turf; #5 Amazima (10-1 ML), a local course winner last out whose trainer Brendan Walsh has won with 3 of his last 7 Indiana turf attempts; and #9 Harmless (12-1 ML) for trainer Michelle Lovell, who has had 5-1, 12-1 and 22-1 superfecta finishers with her 4 local turf stakes starters.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#12 She’sonthewarpath (33%W, 52%P, 58%S)
#8 Hanalei Moon (20%W, 38%P, 59%S)
#4 Rogue Too (18%W, 34%P, 57%S)

Race 9
Jeremy’s tip: #10 Hay Dakota (5-1 ML) exits a third-place finish at Belmont, and note since 2015 that such shippers have a 27% win rate in Indiana Grand stakes and a $1.24 ROI for every $1 bet. Stablemate #5 Grand Journey (6-1 ML) will be ridden by Florent Geroux, who has won 32% of his Indiana Grand turf mounts overall, including a pair of turf stakes each in 2017 and 2018 raids. This pair from Mike Maker will be tough.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#10 Hay Dakota (33%W, 53%P, 60%S)
#7 Cullum Road (20%W, 40%P, 62%S)
#9 First Premio (18%W, 36%P, 60%S)

Race 10
Jeremy’s tip: #6 Shedaresthedevil (9-5 ML) trainer Brad Cox is 14: 7-2-2 with his Indiana Grand stakes favorites since 2016. She could be the most likely single in the sequence from this eye. The alternative would be the aforementioned success of Belmont raiders in Indy stakes (27% wins, $1.24 ROI since 2015), namely #9 Alandra (8-1 ML), and the algorithms are calling for the upset.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#9 Alandra (18%W, 35%P, 50%S)
#5 Miss T Too (13%W, 27%P, 45%S)
#6 Shedaresthedevil (13%W, 32%P, 44%S)

Race 11
Jeremy’s tip: Since moving to July 5 years ago, the Indiana Derby’s winners have averaged 7 prior career starts. It’s been a race rewarding of deeper foundations and less kind to rising brilliance, and may be more so this year extending to 1-1/8 miles from 1-1/16 miles. #3 Taishan (6-1 ML), #5 Shared Sense (4-1 ML), #9 Winning Impression (3-1 ML) and #10 Necker Island (20-1 ML) are the field’s entrants with 7 or more prior starts.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#5 Shared Sense (29%W, 43%P, 54%S)
#3 Taishan (16%W, 33%P, 41%S)
#9 Winning Impression (14%W, 20%P, 33%S)

Race 12
Jeremy’s tip: #1 Five Star Colonel (7-2 ML) could keep trainer Tim Glyshaw red-hot in the 6-furlong sprints at Indiana Grand, where he has won with 3 of his 4 attempts this meet coming into today’s program. Jockey Deshawn Parker also has been on point in 6-furlong dirt sprints at the current meet, posting an 8: 4-2-1 record at the trip. He appears a significant rider change for #2 Forever a Champ (9-2 ML).

1/ST BET AI Picks
#1 Five Star Colonel (28%W, 48%P, 59%S)
#2 Forever a Champ (14%W, 26%P, 47%S)
#5 Our Neighbors Boys (7%W, 12%P, 20%S)