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Sunday, July 12: Del Mar Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 12, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Watch Video


RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Eagle in the Sky; 5-Good With People; 6-Finding Silver

Forecast: Eagle in the Sky has the benefit of a prior run – a decent runner-up effort last month at Santa Anita – and unless there’s a good thing in the field he should be tough to deny for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters. Among the newcomers, Good With People seems the most intriguing. A. Cedillo, who was aboard Eagle in the Sky in his first outing, switches to this P. Miller-trained homebred son of Curlin to Mischief, and a jumps-off-the-page bullet gate work (4f, :46.2hg, fastest of 31) here just four days ago may provide a clue as to why. Another to consider is Finding Silver, which brought $25,000 at the Northern California yearling sales last year, a significant sum of money for a son of Empire Way and a good price for that particular sale. From the clever L. Mendez barn, he’s been subjected to an aggressive series of workouts that should have him fit and ready. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Kazan; 8-Dubby Dubbie

Forecast: Kazan always has preferred the Del Mar turf course (first or second in five of eight career starts), drops to a realistic spot, and is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. Drawn comfortably inside, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should settle in mid-pack early and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. A recent bullet workout (5f, 1:01h) at San Luis Rey Downs indicates he’s right where he needs to be. Dubby Dubbie in an intriguing Tampa Bay Downs invader fresh form a nice optional claiming score in late May and clearly is well-meant today with ship-and-win cash available. On numbers he’s a fit, and if he can get over from his outside draw and establish or press a moderate pace, he’ll be dangerous. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Kazan.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 4-Jewel Thief

Forecast: Jewel Thief looks like a slam dunk rolling exotic single in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. Nosed out in a similar affair at Oaklawn Park in April (a race in which her rider dropped the whip), the B. Cox-trained filly has rising speed figures with every outing and is clearly faster on speed figures than the local contingent. A bullet workout at Indiana Downs (4f, :47.2b, fastest of 63) last week before being sent West indicates she’s arrived dead fit and ready roll, and with ship-and-win money on the line and with F. Prat in the saddle the daughter of Gemologist seems like a short price worth taking.

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Master Ryan; 3-Foothill; 7-Lil Richards Bello

Forecast: Older state-bred maidens sprint five furlongs on grass in what appears on paper to be a messy affair. There are some price opportunities, though, so let’s try to blow out the tote board with a longshot play. Foothill (15-1) has the route-to-sprint angle that always catches our eye and performed in both of his first two outings like a gelding who’d much prefer running short than long. He’s actually fairly competitive on numbers while exiting a pair of better-than-average races, in both cases appearing to pull early and resent rating tactics. Maybe they’ll just let him roll today. Lil Richards Bello is bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree and ran fairly well in his debut when parked wide but keeping to his task to finish a willing third in a decent dirt sprint in late May. The switch to F. Prat is significant, and if the son of Richard’s Kid can improve his gate speed just a bit he should have his chance to produce the last run. Master Ran didn’t run badly in his comeback at Churchill Downs in a grass dash that earned a competitive number with the rest of these. The Grazen gelding has a one-paced style but should enjoy a good ground-saving trip from the rail and at 8-1 on the morning line is worth including somewhere.

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Street Image; 3-Street Behavior; 6-Poise to Strike

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden-claiming abbreviated sprint has nothing to trust; the only thing we’re sure of is that somebody has to win. Best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. Street Image is a nine-race maiden but has finished second in both of his starts off a layoff for new trainer W. Spawr and really won’t have to improve much to outlast this modest gang. The shortening of trip to five and one-half furlongs should help his chances. Poise to Strike, second under similar circumstances at Santa Anita in late May, shows just one workout since for a low percentage outfit but if runs back to his last race he’ll be right there. Street Behavior drops to the bottom for the P. Miller barn, has shown some early speed (but no stick) in a pair of outings and may be better than shown. Toss him in.

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Super Patriot

Forecast: Super Patriot is 8/5 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the Osunitas S. and could easily go lower based on her current form, consistency, and her affection for the local lawn. A convincing winner vs. similar in the Frans Valentine S. at Santa Anita last month, the daughter of Unusual Heat is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw and with clear sailing should be along in time under F. Prat. At the price there’s not much we can do with her other than to use the R. Baltas-trained mare as a logical, no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tacoflavoredkisses; 5-Teton Valley; 6-What’s Up Surfer

Forecast: This maiden state-bred five furlong juvenile dash is a split of today’s opener and probably is the weaker of the two races. Tacofalvoredkisses is a rare California-bred by the long-time high-class Kentucky stallion Distorted Humor that brought a modest $33,000 as a weanling and shows a fair to moderate work tab leading up to his debut. However, the barn has excellent stats with first-timers, F. Prat takes the call, and a recent bullet gate work (3f, :35.1hg, fastest of 35) shows he can run at least a little. By default, he’s the logical top pick. What’s Up Surfer brought next to nothing as a yearling ($9,000) but a :47 4/5 gate work at San Luis Rey Downs for P. Miller last month and then a :47 3/5 move from the barrier over the local main track last week is a fairly good indication of some ability.Teton Valley has the benefit of a prior start; the Tapiture colt pressed the pace to the head of the lane before gradually weakening to be third in his debut in May. That bit of experience should do him well, though the work tab since that race is uninspiring. We’ll have tickets including all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.

RACE 8: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-California Kook

Forecast: California Kook looked quite good winning a first-level allowance turf miler two runs back when facing older foes and then produced another significant forward move when a strong runner-up vs. state-bred colts in the Snow Chief S. last month. She’s facing open company today in a race restricted to 3-year-old fillies, and while additional improvement may be necessary the daughter of Boisterous is a fit on speed figures and will receive the patient ride she requires from regular pilot F. Prat. At 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Kneedeepinsnow; 6-I Am the Danger

Forecast: This is a salty second-level allowance sprint; we’re going to try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics. I Am the Danger has been away since February of 2019 but has trained superbly for his comeback (see video) and seems just as good now as when he was last seen winning a pair of very fast allowance sprints in stakes-quality speed figures. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding projects to be comfortably placed pressing or stalking the pace outside and then have his chance to accelerate when regular rider H. Figueroa gives him his cue. His most recent morning drill, a sparkling :59 3/5 bullet move last month at Santa Anita, really caught the eye. Kneedeepinsnow earned a career top speed figure when winning a first-level allowance dash last month and this lightly-raced colt by Flat Out likely has further improvement in him. His rail draw does him no favors but he’s shown the versatility to win on the lead or form off the pace, so with good racing luck he should be right there. We’ll prefer I Am the Danger on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 10: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Unusually Handsome; 3-King Eddie; 11-Shadrack

Forecast: The nightcap is a competitive entry-level allowance state-bred turf miler with several possibilities and a chance for a decent price. King Eddie is listed at 12-1 on the morning line but probably is better than that. The Bay Area invader is exiting a series of claiming races while winning three straight, each time digging down deep for extra under extreme pressure to hold sway while earning numbers that make him a fit at this level. Tough on the front end or from a stalking position, the son of Square Eddie has done nothing but lay his body down since being claimed for a ham sandwich in February by current trainer B. McLean, and R. Gonzales, who has won on him in the past, gets back aboard. Another Bay Area invader, Shadrack, looks dangerous as well, and is a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line. We’re not wild about his extreme outside draw, the but Gig Harbor gelding, in his second off a layoff following a strong runner-up try at Golden Gate Fields last month, will be heard from late if he can drop over, get some cover and save some ground. He’s fast enough on numbers based on his most recent outing. Unusually Handsome broke his maiden last month with a career top speed figures, gets the cozy rail and should enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip. With another forward move, he’ll have every chance to be right there.