Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 PT. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Wicksters Dream; 3-Box of Chocolates; 5-Star of the West

Forecast: Star of the West was waiver protected when he crushed a maiden $20,000 field in early June with a good speed figure that quite frankly that may have been inflated due to a soft front-running trip. The Flashback colt is raised to the restricted (nw-2) $40,000 level today while switching to I. Ortiz, Jr. in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence, so in a treacherous affair with lots of question marks the R. Rodriguez-trained colt at least appears to be healthy and well-meant. Box of Chocolates is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and has speed figures that are good enough. However, he is just one-for-16 lifetime (with eight seconds and thirds) and is dropping off a $50,000 claim in his first outing since mid-May, though this barn’s record with the first-off-the-claim angle (31% with a massive flat-bet profit) certainly does not make the maneuver suspicious. More concerning is the Candy Ride gelding’s lack of tactical speed that requires racing luck and some help up front to enable his best chance. Wicksters Dream broke his maiden like a decent prospect 10 months ago in Florida, but the 3-year-old son of New Year’s Day returns in a claimer, so his connections obviously don’t view him optimistically in the long term. The workouts at Monmouth Park seem good enough to have him fit but the fact that he’s not being protected in, say, a soft first-level allowance race on his own circuit, hardly inspires confidence. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two but not much more than that.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Cross Border

Forecast: Cross Border just failed to see out the 10 furlong trip when establishing the pace but weakening close home in a fifth place finish, beaten just a length, in the much tougher Manhattan S.-G1 last month but this state-bred restricted affair looks made to order. Probably most effective as a second flight stalker, the son of English Channel should have no trouble securing that type of trip from his favorable rail draw in a race that features of committed front-running types. Being a perfect three-for-three over the local lawn is another strong positive factor, so it all adds up to a very short price similar to his morning line of 50 cents on the dollar. You can use the M. Maker-trained ridgling as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Breithorn; 8-Lost in Rome

Forecast: Lost in Rome shows rising speed figures with each outing, so despite the raise from maiden $20,000 to this maiden $40,000 affair the R. Klesaris-trained son of Tale of Ekati seems well-spotted to earn a diploma. The main concern isn’t the tougher assignment (it’s really not that tough) but the gelding’s sluggish-from-the-gate style, though the addition of blinkers and a cozy outside post could have a positive impact on his tactical speed. Breithorn, in his second start off a layoff, shows up in a seller for the first time, removes blinkers, returns to the main track and sports a bullet workout over the Saratoga training track (4f, :49b, fastest of 11) last week to indicate he’s fit and healthy. The rail draw at this six furlong distance might be problematic, but if he can secure a decent trip the son of Into Mischief could easily justify his 5/2 morning line favorite assignment. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics, with a very slight edge on top to Lost in Rome.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Crack Shot; 8-Maxwell Esquire

Forecast: Maxwell Esquire earned a career top speed figure when rallying late to be fourth (beaten just under three lengths) in the much tougher Sir Cat S. last month at Belmont Park and on paper looks logical as the 6/5 morning line favorite. While this abbreviated five-and-one-half furlong trip would seem to be a tad sharp, the son of Discreet Cat has the tools to be an effective late running sprinter in a field that on paper contains enough early speed to compliment his style. That said, short-priced favorites that are pace and trip dependent aren’t good gambles and this colt seems unlikely to offer any real wagering value due to his red-hot connections (C. Clement/J. Rosario). Those looking for an alternative are certain to consider Crack Shot, a second-off-a-layoff play for J. Englehart (terrific stats with this angle) with a prior win over this course and distance and showing the always-enticing blinkers off angle from a good inside draw. The barn’s “go-to” rider J. Ortiz takes the call, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s certain to receive plenty of attention in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Single: 8-Summer Bourbon

Forecast: Summer Bourbon, a veteran with a history of being hard-knocking and consistent, has finished first or second in 16 of 40 career starts and returns to his claim (and winning level) while being reunited with “win rider” F. Alvarado and showing two easy breezes for his first start off a five week freshening. In a race that projects to have as softer-than-average early pace, the R. Rodriguez-trained gelding should find himself comfortably placed outside just off the pace and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. In a race in which the other main player, Eye Luv Lulu, was scratched, we’ll take a stand and single the son of Ghostzapper with the hope that he’ll regain his best form against this easier company.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B
Single: 10-Sainte Mere Eglise

Forecast: Sainte Mere Eglise is a fresh face with winning credentials in this maiden state-bred middle distance turf event, so let’s take a stand in what otherwise appears to be a somewhat messy affair. The Noble Mission filly returns off an 11-month layoff after displaying some potential in her only outing when a late-charging runner-up (beaten almost five lengths but more than two lengths clear of the rest) in a pretty good maiden state-bred juvenile filly affair over the local lawn behind English Breeze, who subsequently placed in two open stakes events. The work tab isn’t fancy but should have her fit enough for capable connections, and with the presence of I. Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle the T. Bush-trained sophomore looks to have more potential than the other main players, most of whom have been thoroughly exposed. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Wild Medagliad’oro; 6-La Hara

Forecast: The pace flow in this first-level allowance middle distance turf event should be better than average and projects to favor the come-backing La Hara, unbeaten in a pair of grass outings last summer while earning speed figures that are good enough to beat this first-level allowance field. We’ll assume he’s fit and ready – the C. Brown barn hits at a remarkable 29% with this angle – and with the presence of hot-riding J. Rosario in the saddle the 4-year-old son of Dansili is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and seems certain to be a strongly-backed favorite. This is clearly a tougher bunch than he faced last year, first in a maiden $40,000 affair and then in a starter’s allowance event, but the fact that he returns protected indicates his connections are confident he’s returning as well as he left. For protection, you may want to consider as a back-up Wild Medagliad’oro, a need-the-lead type who projects as the controlling speed, though we suspect that he’ll be under some pressure most of the way. Third with a career top speed figure in a state-bred stakes last month at Gulfstream Park when facing a field of tough, veteran pros, he clearly gets an easier assignment today and on pure numbers the M. Casse could be tough to run down if he can secure his preferred trip.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sharp Starr; 7-Eloquent Speaker; 8-Singular Sensation

Forecast: Eloquent Speaker is a lightly-raced and progressive filly stretching out to nine furlongs in this first-level allowance main track affair for state-bred fillies and mares and we’re hopeful the added distance will be within her reach. The daughter of Flatter was a visually pleasing maiden winner sprinting last time out in a race in which the runner-up came back to win her next race by seven lengths, and with four nice workouts since that mid-June event, including a bullet blowout (4f, :48.3b, fastest of 18) six days ago the J. Englehart-trained filly seems set to produce another significant step forward. Singular Sensation was beaten a neck over this track and distance at this level last year while almost 10 lengths clear of the rest, and anything close to that type of effort today will make her very difficult to beat. She had a right to be a bit rusty when a distant second in her comeback last month over a one-turn mile at Belmont Park, but with that tightener behind her the M. Hennig-trained filly should be able to get over from her outside draw and secure a comfortable pace-stalking trip be and then be in a position to do some damage at the head of the lane. With A. P. Indy on the bottom side of her pedigree, Sharp Starr should be able to handle two turns, and at this nine-furlong trip the daughter of Munnings may be capable of building on her recent one-turn mile maiden win that produced a career top speed figure. She couldn’t get close to Eloquent Speaker when they met sprinting two races back but the H. DePaz-trained 3-year-old appears to be a better type now and is worth inclusion in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Central Park

Forecast: Central Park looks quite intriguing in this maiden $25,000 New-York bred extended sprint for fillies and mares due to a number of angles and factors. She’s dropping out of much tougher straight maiden company for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters (26%), she has the route-to-sprint angle that we always like, she’s adding blinkers (which may be the catalyst to a pace-pressing trip) and despite being beaten more than 17 lengths earned a buried speed figure that taken at face value makes her highly competitive at this level. The stable is off to a flying start at a meeting, so with “go to” rider J. Lezcano staying aboard the daughter of Central Banker looks extremely live and well-meant. Let’s make the L. Rice-trained sophomore a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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