Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: No Play/Pass

Forecast: This first race is carded for Steeplechase runners. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Wonder In; ; 5-Carthon

Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $14,000 claimers meet over six furlongs in the first flat race on the program. It’s a challenging affair in which many of the main contenders have question marks. Wonder In will receive plenty of play and is good enough to win at this level but has a disturbing pattern. The Uncaptured gelding was claimed for $25,000 after a sharp score at Gulfstream Park in February but then disappeared and returns on the drop for a barn that has weak stats with layoff runners. We’re unsure of his current condition. Similarly, Carthon, away since February and dropping considerably in class after being claimed for $50,000 in November, returns for an outfit that shows average stats with this angle. Additionally, his lifetime record of 2-for-23 doesn’t inspire confidence but based on pure numbers he’s a threat. We’ll include these two in our rolling exotics but the best course of action may be spread deeper or better yet pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mo Normal; 4-Stunning Princess; 5-Uptown Flirt

Forecast: Here’s our first chance of the young season to see 2-year-old fillies compete over a distance of ground on grass. Stunning Princess has done some very good work in the a.m. leading up to her debut, and while the D. Gargan barn doesn’t have great stats with debut runners this $95,000 yearling purchase should be ready to show her best first crack out of the box. A recent turf breeze around dogs over the Saratoga training turf course (4f, :49b, second fastest of 33), catches the eye, and with the barn’s “go-to” rider M. Franco taking the call the daughter of Cairo Prince will offer excellent wagering value at or near her 4-1 morning line. Mo Normal, from the C. Clement barn, hasn’t done anything noteworthy in the morning but this barn has superior stats with first-time starters so she’ll get plenty of play on that angle alone.Uptown Flirt breezed well during the OBS March Sale while displaying a nice stride and good athleticism, and while we can’t say she has a grass pedigree the daughter of Speightster definitely has some run and should be plenty fit for W. Mott. At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in as well.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Fresco; 2-Dixie Cannon

Forecast: Even though she’s still a maiden after three starts, Fresco is listed as the even money morning line favorite in this state-bred 3-year-old filly hundred grander over a middle distance on grass. Nosed out in her last start at a short price and before that fourth when equally heavily-backed, the daughter of Freud has the type of winning connections (C. Clement/I. Ortiz, Jr.) that always attracts play, and on pure form and relatively strong speed figures she’s clearly the one to beat. Perhaps offering better wagering value will be Dixie Cannon, a Laurel invader with form as a juvenile that makes her a viable alternative to the favorite. The K. Breen-trained filly was far back last month in her first outing since October, but that race came vs. much tougher second-level allowance open fillies and mares and even in defeat produced a career top number. She has a bit more tactical speed than Fresco, so we’ll give the Maryland shipper a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: O’Trouble; 4-Ahead of Plan; 7-Instinctive Rhythm

Forecast: Older maidens sprint six furlongs in what appears to be a stronger than par race for the level. The first-timer Instinctive Rhythm, so impressive in his preview (:10 flat) at the 2019 OBS March Sale, finally makes it the post and should be an extremely live item for the G. Weaver barn, which boasts exceptional stats with first-time starters. The son of Tapiture displayed plenty of ability in the morning last summer at Saratoga as a 2-year-old before being stopped on, and the $350,000 auction purchase, now a gelding, has done nothing but fire bullets at Belmont Park while preparing for this affair. Ahead of Plan, another new gelding, ran very well in his debut over the local main track last year before tailing off and then being sent home. The C. Brown stable has superior stats with layoff runners (29%) and this son of Big Drama – who burned so much money in his three prior outings - could be hard to beat if runs back to his highly-rated debut in which he led from the start until worn down right at the wire while well clear of the rest. O’ Trouble, third in both of his starts to date, clearly has some talent but probably can’t beat a real good maiden. His numbers are decent, so we’ll use him as a back-up just in case ‘Rhythm or ‘Plan don’t fire.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Bareeqa; 8-Simplicity; 9-Kitten by the Sea

Forecast: Kitten by the Sea is listed at 6-1 on the morning line in this contentious first-level allowance inner turf miler for fillies and mares and at that price she offers a bit of a gamble. Winner of her last pair vs. moderate claimers, most recently vs. $40,000 (nw-2) rivals at Gulfstream Park in February, she returns protected for new trainer T. Pletcher off a claim and shows a bullet half mile training track drill (4f, :49b, fastest of 13) at Belmont Park last week to have her on edge. The outside draw isn’t great but she’s shown the ability to stalk and pounce, so given that type of trip the daughter of Kitten’s Joy, with rising numbers in each outing, may be able to successfully stand the raise in class. Bareequa is a tough-as-nails 7-year-old mare with 13 wins from 44 starts, including three over the Saratoga turf course, and is the likely favorite and one to beat. She has the ideal second-flight, stalking style that should allow I. Ortiz, Jr., to move when he wants to. The concern is that on pure numbers she’s really not that much better, if at all, than our much younger top selection. Simplicity represents stranger danger. The French-bred filly makes her U.S. debut for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team as a first time Lasix user with form in European stakes races that should make her highly-competitive at this level. You have to include her.
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RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fierce Lady; 6-Puffery; 10-Bertranda

Forecast: Fierce Lady went stale last winter and was stopped on, but if she can return off the bench for new trainer R. Rodriguez with her best form the daughter of Competitive Edge could spring a mild surprise in this state-bred second level allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares. Both of her races last year over the Saratoga main track were excellent, including a win at this six and one-half furlong trip in the Seeking the Ante S., and because she won her debut by six lengths (with a career top speed figure) we know she can fire fresh. The work tab isn’t fancy but is good enough. Bertranda is dangerous and a “must use” in rolling exotic play, even though she is far more likely to finish second or third (20 times out of 50 starts) than win. The veteran mare picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Puffery is another that generally settles for secondary awards (two career wins with 13 seconds/thirds) but gets off the rail and projects to settle into a nice stalking spot. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Modesto; 3-Union Colonel; 4-French Reef

Forecast: French Reef was well-backed in his debut last November but after cutting out good fractions weakened to wind up a close sixth in a better than par race for the level The Irish-bred gelding returns off the nearly nine month vacation in a more suitable sprint for C. Brown (superior with layoffs) and sports a recent bullet five furlong training track turf workout (5f, 1:00.3b, fastest of 11) to indicate he’s spot on in this open maiden grass dash. Union Colonel, second in his last three but beaten at 3/5 in his most recent start at Gulfstream Park in February, returns for M. Casse (average stats with layoffs) and projects to be close up throughout and have every chance. He’s okay on numbers – competitive but not great – but with a good series of workouts at a training center could be a better type this time around. Modesto is an intriguing first timer from the W. Ward barn with a series of workouts at Keeneland likely to have him plenty fit. He’s an Uncle Mo colt and therefore should handle any surface, so at 6-1 on the morning line under I. Ortiz, Jr. he’s probably worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Wendell Fong; 4-Honest Mischief; 6-Captain Scotty

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this three-other-than allowance dash but otherwise pass the race. Honest Mischief (8/5) is the morning line favorite after finishing a distant second to the emerging top class sprinter Volatile in the listed Aristides S. at Churchill Downs in his comeback last month. The son of Into Mischief has strong figures, gets an extra half furlong to work with, and should have every chance to tag the leaders. Captain Scotty returns to his preferred surface – dirt – and tackles easier while landing the cozy outside post. The P. Miller-trained gelding won the Palos Verdes S.-G2 at Santa Anita earlier this year, shows a bullet three furlong blowout at Monmouth Park (:33.4h, fastest of 17) four days ago, and should be able to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking/pressing position in a race projected to have modest early fractions. Wendell Fong joins the R. Diodoro barn in his first outing since finishing fifth in the Count Fleet H.-G3 at Oaklawn Park in April. His two 2020 outings weren’t productive but both came in stakes races that earned strong numbers, so against this lesser group the son of Flat Out could easily return to top form for a barn that strikes at 25% with layoff runners. He could find himself in a good second flight, ground-saving position, ready to pounce when called upon.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: B
Single: 11-Financialstability

Forecast: Financialstability is a single in the nightcap; not so much because his form jumps off the page but because the competition in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller is so bleak. The big class drop – this is his first start for a tag – was overdue and we suspect this 5-year-old New York-bred will improve considerably against modest group. Drawn comfortably outside and with speed figures that make him a standout, the C. Brown-trained gelding should be able to settle in the second flight and then produce his run outside, in the clear, and when he’s called upon. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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