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Sunday July 26: Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 26, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:
Tenth Race – Post Time: 6:30 PT
2 – Galilean (3-1)

Fresh from a facile victory with a strong figure in the Soi Phet Stakes at Los Alamitos last month, the J. Sadler-trained colt tries grass for the first time in this year’s edition of the California Dream’ Stakes and being from a El Prado mare certainly has the pedigree to handle the switch in surface. A good-looking breeze in company over the local lawn last week (view workout)
should have him right on edge, and from a comfortable inside draw the son of Uncle Mo should fall into whatever early position jockey F. Prat desires. At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

Today’s Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: A-

Single: 3-Advanced Strategy

Forecast: Advanced Strategy displayed promise in his only start last year December when finishing a solid third in a highly-rated maiden special weight sprint at the Big A. Away since then but showing a strong, healthy work pattern that includes a bullet gate blowout (3f, :36.1bg, fastest of 14) just five days ago, the son of Karakontie moves to grass, a surface he’s bred to excel on, and picks up J. Rosario while catching a field of state-bred rivals that appears well below standard. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and looks all of that on paper, so let’s make the J. Jerkens-trained sophomore a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Judge N Jury; 5-Arrowheart; 6-Effinity

Forecast: This maiden New York-bred juvenile dash drew just six entrants, three of which have credentials to win. We’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Effinity has the benefit of a prior run, a second place effort last month at Belmont Park in which the son of Effinex pressed the pace before weakening to be beaten three lengths. It was just an okay effort but the B. Cox barn has superior stats with second-timers (25%) so we’ll assume this colt will step forward. Judge N Jury has a series of good works for D. Gargan (modest stats with debut runners) and should be plenty fit. A $200,000 Saratoga yearling bred to win early, the son of Tapiture shows a recent :47 4/5 half mile breeze over the local main track (fourth fastest of 70) and an earlier bullet :48 1/5 training track drill (fastest of 15) that catch the eye. The barn’s go-to rider, M. Franco, takes the call. Arrowheat lands J. Rosario for his initial outing and a bullet breezing gate drill earlier this month over the Belmont Park training track (:47.1g, fastest of 104) jumps off the page. The J. Kimmel barn rarely wins with a first-timer but this homebred son of Hard Spun could easily be the exception to the rule.

RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Shootin the Breeze; 6-Chantry Flats; 11-Road to Meath

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer has an obvious top choice in Road to Meath, a class-dropping first-time gelding from the C. Brown with speed figures that are considerably better than par for this level. This is his second off a layoff (barn is 25% with this angle) and the drop in class for the 5-year-old son of Quality Road – who always has had trouble stringing races together – seems quite logical. Reunited with “win rider” J. Castellano, ‘Meath has plenty going for him on paper. On the other hand, he may not be one to totally trust at what should be relatively short price because he’s a one-paced grinding type without any real style. Viable alternatives include Shootin the Breeze anChantry Flats. ‘Breeze is a first-off-the-claim for M. Maker, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and may improve enough to be a strong threat from off the pace while ‘Flats, fourth as the favorite in the same race ‘Breeze just finished second in, makes his second start off a layoff for trainer M. Nevin, who has excellent stats with this angle. Additionally, the son of The Factor has back speed figures good enough to win and a pace pressing style that should keep him trouble free. We’ll try to get by using just these in our rolling exotics but not with a high degree of confidence.

RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-The Great Dansky

Forecast: The Great Dansky is well-spotted to regain his winning form in this $40,000 claiming extended sprint for 3-year-olds that drew just six runners. The B. Cox-trained colt lands the cozy outside post and can dictate the race while pressing or stalking what projects to be a very soft pace. Back at his claim level and with a strong series of workouts for his first outing since mid-June, the son of Majesticperfection is a standout on pure numbers and looks on paper every bit the even money that’s he’s listed on the morning line. He’s a logical no value rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Mad Maddy; 2-Outadore; 10-River Tiber

Forecast: This is fairly challenging maiden juvenile turf sprint featuring a number of good but untested prospects. Mad Maddy is a filly tackling colts but she’s a daughter of American Phaorah and therefore eligible to move up a ton on grass. Both of her dirt sprints at Churchill Downs were good; she was more than six lengths clear of the rest when missing by less than a length in her debut and then dropped a head photo while more than five clear of the others in her most recent outing. Following a five week freshening and with three easy breezes since arriving at Saratoga, the S. Asmussen-trained filly may be very tough to catch from her good rail draw. River Tiber was bet like he couldn’t lose (3/5) in his debut but wound up fourth (beaten less than two lengths) after appearing a bit green through the lane. The W. Ward-trained son of War Front certainly should benefit from the outing, and I would be no surprise if he produced a significant forward move today. Ward’s other starter, Outadore, is a $290,000 son of the promising young Uncle Mo stallion Outwork with a sneaky good series of workouts that should have him plenty fit. The barn has a remarkable 29% strike rate with debut runners, so at 4-1 on the morning line with I. Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle he’s a “must use” on your ticket.

RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jazzique; 6-Witez; 11-Cost Benefit

Forecast: Churchill Downs invader Witez was out of her element when unplaced in the Regret S.-G3 last time out but her strong runner-up effort two runs back that produced a career top speed figure charts very well here, so in an open fray let’s give the I. Wilkes-trained invader a slight edge on top at 4-1 on the morning line. The daughter of More Than Ready should draft into a good second flight, stalking position and have every chance from there. Jazzique was disappointing in her recent comeback when finishing a flat third as the favorite in a similar entry-level allowance turf miler at Belmont Park last month. The excuse that she “needed the race” really doesn’t fly; the C . Brown barn generally sends them fit and this filly won her debut, so she has a history of firing fresh. Still, the Irish-bred filly is seems guaranteed an ideal, ground-saving trip from her rail draw and bullet half mile dirt breeze (4f, :49.1, fastest of 24) since raced indicates she’s doing well and ready to produce a forward move. Cost Benefit, a game winner in her debut in gate-to-wire fashion last month at Belmont Park for the C. Brown/J. Rosario team, had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post and will be hard pressed to negotiate a decent trip. She’s a nice filly, for sure, but at 2-1 on the morning line she’ll have to step forward considerably vs. this tougher group, and it’s hard to envision her avoiding a wide trip from that draw. We’ll use her as saver but not much more than that.

RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-American Mandate; 8-Fast Getaway

Forecast: This is a tough first-level allowance turf dash; we’ll try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics. Fast Getaway was sharp beating second-level state-bred turf sprinters at Belmont Park last month in is first outing since November and should be highly competitive in this open grass dash for the hot L. Rice barn. Most effective when held up a bit as a pace stalker, the son of Into Mischief should get that type of ride/trip from regular pilot J. Ortiz. American Mandate is just 1-for-15 and not one to trust, but his only prior grass outing – a good runner-up effort at Churchill Downs last November – perhaps indicates that with Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom of his pedigree should be kept on turf. He’s competitive on speed figures and seems likely to secure a good stalking position.

RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Happy Saver

Forecast: Happy Saver, the subject of a recent Black Book feature(view segment), was highly impressive breaking his maiden at first asking sprinting at Belmont Park last month, pressing the pace to the head of the lane and then lengthening out in the final furlong like a colt that should improve considerably as the distances increase. The speed figure was strong, so this T. Pletcher-trained son of Super Saver should be more than capable of winning on the one-level raise, though at 6/5 on the morning line won’t be offering any wagering value. We’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Good Governance; 6-Halladay

Forecast: Good Governance faces a considerably tougher task after returning off a long layoff and toying with an outclassed first-level allowance field last month at Belmont Park. The English-bred colt, with just three career outings, is thoroughly untested but gives every indication that he’s of this level, though we wouldn’t want to take much less than the 9/5 that he’s listed on the morning line. Numbers-wise he has some ground to make up but seems quite capable of producing the necessary improvement to win, and in a race that projects to have at least a reasonable amount of early pace the son of Kingman will have his chance to uncork his devasting late kick what should be trouble-free trip in a six-runner field. Halladayis moving up the ladder as well, though he’s already a two-time stakes with a rising speed figures and room for further advancement. He prefers the front end but can stalk and win if required and in this scenario the son of War Front should settle in behind Somelikeitbrown and then go on with it when asked. We’ll feel safe including both in our rolling exotics while perhaps giving Good Governance a slight edge on top.

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Economic Policy; 10-Turn of Events; 11-Prince of Caps

Forecast: We’ll triple the finale, a maiden $40,000 two-turn wide open grass grab-bag. Economic Policy shows up in a seller for the first and seems logically spotted after a disappointing run at odds-on at Tampa Bay Downs almost two months ago. His debut effort in Florida in January wasn’t bad (a closing second), so with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. and the addition of blinkers, the C. Brown-trained son of Giant’s Causeway may wake up against this modest band. Turn of Events, dropping out of a tougher maiden $75,000 affair when having every chance but winding up fourth, has numbers that fit at this level but has a habit of flattening out under pressure. We suppose he can win, but we’ve seen better 3-1 shots. Prince of Caps, more attractively priced at 10-1 on the morning line, is a first-time gelding for M. Nevin after finishing a close second at this level last month in his first outing on grass. He’s a fit on numbers and should get the patient ride he needs, so you have to include him.