Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Big Al’s Gal; 4-Belleza

Forecast: Belleza shows up in a maiden $25,000 claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares after finishing a respectable second (beaten five lengths but finishing four clear of the others) in a maiden $40,000 affair earlier this month at Belmont Park. This is not a healthy sign, but the L. Rice barn isn’t afraid to drop and win and this 4-year-old daughter of Tiznow, with steadily rising speed figures, seems well-spotted to graduate. She’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and is unlikely to offer any real wagering value. Big Al’s Gal chased much tougher foes on grass in her debut, and after not receiving any tote action (26-1) failed to land a blow when lacking speed throughout and winding up seventh of 10, beaten more than 13 lengths. The class drop is warranted, the switch to J. Rosario is a positive factor and since she’s not yet exposed we’ll include her on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Five Alarm Robin; 6-Stormy Derby Day; 9-Positive Skew

Forecast: Stormy Derby Day exits a tougher $50,000 starter’s allowance event and is well-spotted today in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller for fillies and mares over a middle distance on grass. Sharp when breaking her maiden for a tag two runs back at Gulfstream Park while earning a speed figure that is better than par for this level, the T. Bush-trained filly adds blinkers, lands I. Ortiz, Jr., and should be capable of regaining her winning form. In a race without any real pace, she’ll probably inherit the role as the controlling speed and receive a trip mirroring the one that produced her maiden score. Positive Skew, a solid runner-up in a similar affair last month, retains J. Rosario and is the most dangerous of the closing types. If she gets some help up front, the City Zip filly will make her presence felt in the final furlong. Five Alarm Robin, away since February after failing to make the course, is a fit on numbers and is capable of giving the favorite some competition off her best effort. She has a good stalking style and goes for a dangerous jockey/trainer combo. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Stormy Derby Day.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Ajar/1a-Ashiham; 4-Lucky Asset; 6-Vicarage


Forecast: We’ll pass this race but include the three main players in our rolling exotics. The Shadwell Stable entry of Adjar and Ashiham is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite and each has credentials to win this nine furlong main track maiden affair, though both are one-paced grinders and not particular fast on speed figures. Lucky Asset is an Honor Code gelding stretching out for the first time after earning a career-top speed figure when second in an extended dash at Keeneland last time out. There’s a possibility he’s late-running sprinter and nothing more, but if he can route he can win. Vicarage, scratched out of a maiden turf event July 18 (worked the same day), was six lengths clear of the rest when a decent runner-up over the main track at Tampa Bay Downs in May in what was just his second career start. He was late changing leads but was steadily grinding away before running out of room in a useful effort, and the son of Medaglia d’Oro has every reason to continue his improving pattern for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-War Canoe; 4-Classic Lady

Forecast: Classic Lady, in her first start for C. Clement and in her first outing since November, lost a toughie by a nose in the Mt. Vernon S. earlier this month at Belmont Park but she’s always been genuine and consistent and should fire a similar shot today. Winless in three starts over the local turf course but in the frame in each of those outings, the daughter of Jimmy Creed retains J. Rosario and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight position and have every chance to seal the deal from there. War Canoe, a close third in the same race ‘Lady exits, also has the second-off-the-layoff angle on her resume for a barn that has superior stats with that angle and seems likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail draw. These are the two that will receive most of the play and they’re tough to separate, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-American Power; 6-Thebigfundamental

Forecast: American Power was in a bit too steep when unplaced in an optional $62,500 claimer earlier this month at Belmont Park but his race two back at this level – a tough nose defeat – charts very well here and the L. Rice-trained horse, a perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga main track, has the ideal style for this extended sprint distance. He’s reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz, so everything adds up. Thebigfundamental, away since March of 2019, returns in a claimer – not usually a good sign, - but he’s a “must use” because the T. Pletcher barn’s record with layoff runners (30%) is off the charts. The son of Uncle Mo has never sprinted in his career but the works indicate he’s sharp and ready, so it’s possible he’ll be effective at this trip.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Backtohisroots; 4-Sayyaaf

Forecast: Saayaf and Backtohisroots, two-three finishers in a similar second-level allowance turf sprint in June, renew their rivalry at the Spa and both figure to fire big shots. The former, a sharp winner over this course and distance last year, does his best running on the lead and wil have to deal with a couple of other speed types, but if he brings his best stuff the C. Brown-trained colt should be tough to outrun. ‘Roots will need some racing luck from his rail post, but as a second-flight stalker the J. Terranova-trained colt should have enough heat up front to promote his closing kick. In the frame in nine of 10 career starts and with a healthy work pattern since raced, the son of Mark Valeski may be set for a career top performance.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bebe Banker; 6-Blackjack Davey; 8-Danny California

Forecast: Bebe Banker crushed a restricted 25,000 claiming field by almost nine lengths in late June in a one-turn miler but was a voided claim and was returned to the barn of R. Rodriguez. He’s protected today in a sign of confidence, so if the New York-bred gelding can turn in two alike and handle the nine furlong trip the son of Central Banker could take this field gate-to-wire as the obvious controlling speed. However, he’s hardly a slam dunk to do so with a career record of 2-for-21. Blackjack Davey recently broke his maiden at Belmont Park in just his second career start while earning a speed figures that makes him a major player right back for the hot L. Rice barn. The son of Posse probably has a higher ceiling than most of these. Danny California is a one-paced grinding type but should enjoy an ideal second-flight trip and have his chance to wear down the leader in the final furlong. Back with “win rider” J. Rosario, the Afleet Alex gelding has a prior win at Saratoga (albeit over a sloppy track) and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Wissahickon; 2-Therapist; 8-Devamani

Forecast: Devamani wasn’t quite good enough to make a serious impression in the Manhattan S.-G1 earlier this month at Belmont Park but the effort was good, as he kept to his task outside in the lane and was beaten less than three lengths. He’s back in the allowance ranks today and a repeat of his strong runner-up effort two races back in the Ft. Marcy S.-G2 should be good enough to handle this easier assignment. J. Rosario stays aboard and knows him well. Therapist was up in time to win the listed First Defence S. in June in his first outing since last October, and although his work pattern since then appears a bit spotty we’ll operate under the assumption that the C. Clement-trained gelding is ready for another top effort. He proven over the local lawn and if he’s in a position in the final stages to beat you, he will. Wissahickon is useful English invader making his U.S. debut in a winnable spot. Primarily an all-weather specialist but also a two-time winner on grass, the son of Tapit is a first time Lasix user for trainer J. Thomas (excellent stats wit Euro shippers) and on from shows at least two excellent victories off layoffs. You have to include him.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Zaccapa; 4-Sequin; 6-Spectacularsunrise

Forecast: Maiden fillies and mares sprint on grass in the nightcap in what looks to be a fairly decent race for the level. Zaccapa ran well in her recent U.S. debut, pressing the pace but then weakening late over seven furlongs in her first outing in 10 months. The B. Cox barn hits with a very strong 25% with second-off-layoff runners and with this shortening to five and one-half furlongs the French-bred filly should be tough from a stalking or pressing position. Sequin, off the track since last October, returns for W. Ward (a good 21% with layoffs) and ran well over this course and distance last year when getting tagged right on the wire after opening up three lengths in mid-stretch. She could be a better type this time around, especially if held up early and allowed to run late. Spectacularsunrise, a first-timer by More Than Ready from the C. Brown barn, hasn’t done anything noteworthy in the morning but the barn is 22% with first-timers, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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