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Saturday, August 1: The Adios Super Hi-5 Analysis + Mandatory Payout

by Al Cimaglia

August 1, 2020

It is Adios Day at the Meadows Racetrack which is the biggest card of the year at the Washington Pennsylvania oval. The Super Hi-5 will have a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be contested in Race 15 which is the Delvin Miller Adios Pace with a $375,000 purse. The sequence will have a mandatory payout plus a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

My two key horses probably won't have the lead initially but could benefit from a speed battle by others trying to get the top. My choice to win the Adios is #2-Capt Midnight and #1-Later Dudes will be used in the 2-3 slots in the Hi-5. If the #1 goes off at a nice price and #6, #8, or #9 hits the board the Hi-5 could pay nicely. That could be the case as long as Capt Midnight comes up with a big effort to take top honors. A solid payout for the Hi-5 hinges on the program chalk #3-Catch The Fire and the 3rd morning line favorite #4-The Greek Freak not finishing at the top of the ticket.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 15-Delvin Miller Adios Pace-Purse $375,000

1-Later Dudes (8-1) - Here is my key to getting a price involved in the Hi-5. This lightly raced 3-year old has started on the rail in the last 2. He might be overlooked and could go off higher than the 8-1 morning line. Dave Miller sat patiently in the Elim, pulled the plugs at the top of the lane, and then rallied nicely for 2nd. Many will say Sandbetweenmytoes, who sat in the pocket, would have finished 2nd if not for breaking. That will be another reason this Brian Brown pupil may not get bet and could provide some juice to the Hi-5. Miller could duck, get a good seat and rally late to hit the board at a nice price. This looks like a spot to be driven more aggressively and the colt did close last week in 26.1. He's learning and getting better. Miller will keep him in the hunt.

2-Capt Midnight (4-1) - Barring a bad trip the Capt looks like the winner and should improve in its 2nd Meadows start. Catch the Fire went to the half last week in .55 and the pace should be quicker today. The Capt was hung 1st over the last 3/8's and did pace the 2nd half in a snappy 53.3 to fall short by a head. He finished well and this time McCarthy could wait for the dust to settle and pull earlier and roll to the top. Drawing inside of the #3 and #4 won't hurt and not sure the 4-1 morning line holds up, but there is value at those odds.

3-Catch The Fire (3-1) - Not casting shade on this son of Captaintreacherous but he is not going to get the same kind of respect as in last week's Elimination. This colt may need to be leading at the top of the lane to win and that may not be the case this time. If Wilder goes for the lead off the gate, which will probably be the case, others could be committed to do the same. So, it will be a question of how much gas will be left after the 3/4's and my guess is the pressure applied early will cost the program chalk.

4-The Greek Freak (5-1) - This has been a very good year for the Freak. He was gelded after going winless in 9-starts in 2019. Now the Burke trainee is riding a 4-race win streak, but he had an even easier path to an Elimination win than Catch The Fire. The Freak got on the engine and went to the half in .56 and was unchallenged for almost the entire mile. This is another nice-looking colt but probably a notch below #2 and #3.

5-No Lou Zing (7-1) - Takter trainee has raced only 8-times and in my view, there is no value at the program odds of 7-1. Looks like a minor player and hasn't shown the same type of speed as others. The lack of seasoning, plus the pilot may not be in the same class as others drivers in this field works against Lou.

6-Sweet Truth (12-1) - Sweet Lou 3-year-old appears to be getting better but is in tall cotton today. Not sure how Gingras can put him in play but wouldn't rule out for a piece of the Hi-5.

7-Chief Mate (20-1) - This is not a win candidate in my mind and will need a close-up seat to hit the board. But could be in the hunt for the bottom of the Hi-5 ticket, but will probably need some luck to finish any higher.

8-Captain Barbossa (8-1) - This is a very nice colt, and is in a similar position as #9. Dunn will need to work a great trip to hit the board from this post and winning seems to not be in the cards. But could add some juice to the Hi-5 payout if finishes in the top three.

9-Elver Hanover (10-1) - This is another fine colt, but this post most likely crushed any chance for a win. Page may blast out and the question will be at what cost. This is probably the best horse of the three Burke has entered. So, if the trip goes well and lands a good seat or follows live cover, Elver could spice up the Hi-5.


$0.20 Super Hi 5 Tickets

Ticket 1) 2/1/3,4,6,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00

Ticket 2) 2/3,4,6,8,9/1/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00


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