Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:
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Third race. Post Time: 3:00 PT
5 – Freedom Fighter (2-1)

This may be the barn’s most advanced (and most talented) juvenile we’ve seen to date. The son of Violence has done everything in the a.m. like a top class prospect, breezing strongly without being asked for his best in each of his recent moves and outworking talented older horses. Obviously, in a five furlong dash he has to break with his field, but if he does the son of Violence should be able to win at first asking and go on to bigger and better things. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

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Fifth Race. Post Time: 4:00 PT
5 – Polar Wind (8-1)

Simply stated, we loved his recent starter’s allowance race over this track and distance and expect the lightly-raced son of Super Saver to dangerous right back despite the raise in class to this first-level allowance level. Broke a bit slowly, moved up to be a second flight, stalking position inside in the deepest part of track, lost valuable momentum while in traffic on the turn, angled wide for room into the lane and accelerated impressively to roar past the leader in the final furlong to win going away with strong speed figure. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and is better than that. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

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Seventh Race. Post Time: 5:00 PT
9 – Taming the Tigress (3-1)

Was well-meant in her debut three weeks ago but had everything go against her and under the circumstances did remarkably well to finish fifth, beaten less than two lengths. Drew the dreaded rail, was off slowly and veered in at the start, rushed up inside over the very deep footing and was in heavy traffic to the head of the lane, angled out and then responded as best she could but was unable to overcome the rugged trip. Much better drawn outside today, the P. Miller-trained filly should have every chance to display her true ability. There’s plenty of wagering value here at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it.

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Ninth Race. Post Time: 6:00 PT
1 – Little Rachel (5-1)

Ran like she was worth the money when debuting for $40,000 in her debut sprinting on the main track, breaking slowly from the rail to fall far back but then producing an extended run through traffic to close a huge gap when second in a productive race in late May. She galloped out strongly (in front) as if to indicate she’ll appreciate more distance, and the daughter of Tapiture has the opportunity in this two-turn turf affair for maiden $62,500. From her good inside draw and assuming she leaves with her field, the V. Garcia-trained sophomore projects to draft into a good, ground-saving position and then have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire. At 5-1 on the morning line she’s a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Today’s Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:
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RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Olympiad/1a-Outlier; 7-Winfromwithin; 8-Team Merchants

Forecast: This appears to be a fairly strong maiden special weight juvenile sprint. We’re still waiting to see a monster at this meeting; is there one in here? Team Merchants makes his debut for D. O’Neill, whose main string is at Del Mar. It seems unlikely that this colt would be at Saratoga unless his connections thought something of him, and the work tab is quite impressive for a barn that doesn’t usually ask much from its young stock in the a.m. The son of Nyquist recorded a bullet gate drill of :47 3/5 (fastest of 65), the third of three successive eye-catching drills that include a couple at Belmont Park before being vanned north. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s a gambling number. The entry has two major players and both look live. Outlier, from the S. Asmussen barn, is from the first crop of Not This Time out of a stakes winning mare and sports a :59 1/5 gate drill over the Saratoga main track last month followed by two easy breezes to have him on edge. His entry-mate, Olympiad, is a W. Mott-trained colt by Speightstown that brought $700,000 at Keeneland and shows two recent bullet drills to indicate he’s fit and ready. Winfromwithin has the benefit of a prior run, finishing second at odds-on at Belmont Park last month. It was a decent debut, one that should launch him to bigger and better things, especially with more distance to work with. It’s going to take a pretty good colt to win today’s opener.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Fog Of War; 2-Spirit Animal

Forecast: Fog of War returns following an 11 month layoff; however, the barn is 28% with layoffs so we’ll assume this well-regarded colt is fit and ready. A beaten choice in the Secretariat S.-G1 when last seen, the Grade-1 winning son of War Front returns in a second-level allowance affair and should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail over a course he broke his maiden over in his debut last year. With a work tab that is designed to have him spot on, including a bullet five furlong turf training track drill around dogs (5f, 1:00.2b, fastest of 14) earlier this week, the C. Brown-trained colt is clearly the one to beat. Brown’s other starter, Spirit Animal, isn’t without a chance, and may be worth tossing in as a back-up or a saver. A voided claim in a restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claimer in mid-June at Belmont Park that produced a career-top speed figure, the son of Lemon Drop Kid clearly is healthy and looks very much improved over last year. Look for him to be running on late.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Allied Invasion; 5-K. K. Ichikawa

Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this maiden claiming middle distance state-bred turf event, so we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Allied Invasion has the C. Clement/J. Rosario team in his corner and that alone is enough to make him a major contender. The work tab, while certainly not fancy, should have him plenty fit, and clearly the son of Normandy Invasion won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. K. K. Ichikawa was a fair-to-moderate third in his debut vs. similar at Belmont Park in June and has a right to improve off that effort, especially with the addition of Lasix for a barn that shows reasonable stats with the second-time-starter angle. The Twirling Candy gelding also is adding Lasix, another reason to anticipate a forward move.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Dreams of Tomorrow; 5-Ima Pharoah

Forecast: Dreams of Tomorrow is the 9/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so after just missing by a neck while seven lengths clear of the rest in a similar maiden sprint at Belmont Park in June. The son of Speightstown has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint trip, adds blinkers, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in what appears to be below standard race for the level. Ima Pharoah is another adding blinkers for the first time and could improve enough to be serious threat. Second in all four starts but with below average numbers, the son of American Pharoah has burned plenty of money so far but should be part of what projects to be a moderate pace and could stick around for a long time. We’ll prefer Dreams of Tomorrow on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Midnight Bisou

Forecast: Midnight Bisou is listed at 2/5 on the morning line and could easily go 1/5 in this year’s edition of the Personal Ensign S.-G1, a race she won by a nose last year over Elate that produced her career top Beyer speed figure (104). She appears every bit as good now as last year, arguably even better. She’s a treat to watch, but obviously unplayable other than as a free bingo square in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Mister Winston; 5-Foolish Ghost; 6-Stage Left; 7-Everfast

Forecast: Here’s a spread race with several contenders. On pure form Everfast is clearly the one to beat. The son of Take Charge Indy, runner-up in the Preakness last year and second to Owendale in the Blame S. at Churchill Downs in May, would appear to have a distinct class edge in this first-level allowance race, but he’s 1-for-18 in his career and is zero-for-the-last-two-years. The good news is that his reunited with J. Rosario, who got good run out of him in the Blame, so he can certainly win, but doesn’t have to. Let’s instead prefer Mister Winston slightly on top. The C. Brown-trained colt shortens to seven furlongs after being worn down late by the promising Creed in what was just his second career outing last month. The Lookin At Lucky colt may be best suited as a late-running sprinter and we’re expecting he’ll get the patient ride he needs this time from J. Castellano. A bullet half mile breeze over the Belmont Park training track (4f, :49.2b, fastest of 15) is an indication that he’s continuing to move forward. Stage Left earned a career-top speed figure when winning a restricted (nw-3) $50,000 claimer last time out at Belmont Park and with just 11 career starts probably has further improvement in him. The W. Ward-trained son of Congrats should settle into an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance to kick on with it at the head of the lane. Foolish Ghost, first off the claim for B. Brown, will be the controlling speed and if not respected could take this field a long way. At 12-1 on the morning line, the Mineshaft gelding is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post 4:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Shawdyshawdyshawdy; 8-Modern Science

Forecast: Let’s try to boil down this maiden two-turn juvenile turf event to two main contenders. Shawdyshawdyshawdy looks quite intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line. Bred for turf (Summer Front) and from a barn that excels with debut runners, this homebred colt has done some good work in the a.m., including a five furlong team drill last week on the training track that was quite sharp. In a race in which the known element may be vulnerable, let’s go for a fresh face at a nice price. Modern Science was given a run at Ellis Park in his debut when fourth as the favorite in early July and should be much more serious today for the I. Wilkes/J. Rosario team that scored with a Kentucky shipper yesterday. This son of Galileo was far back early, moved quickly within range midway, was blocked behind a wall of horses from the 3/8ths pole to close home and never really had a chance to accelerate. We’ll get a pretty good line on what he’s made of today.
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RACE 8: Post 5:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Amano; 8-Reigning Spirit

Forecast: Maidens meet over 11 furlongs on turf, and there are at least two in the field that seem likely to enjoy the opportunity to race at this marathon trip. Amano is a progressing Temple City colt, and while he’s been beaten as the favorite in his first two starts this is the type of race he was bred to excel at. Hopefully he can maintain some contact early and not be given too much to do from the quarter pole home in a race that projects to have creepy-crawler early fractions. Reigning Spirit, runner-up in his last pair at Churchill Downs, isn’t quite as fast on pure figures as Amano but he exits a productive race, picks up J. Rosario, and is a son of the good staying mare Upperline, winner of the mile and one-half Dowager S. at Keeneland in her racing days. This 11-furlong journey should bring out his best.
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RACE 9: Post 5:42 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Tom’s d’Etat

Forecast: Tom’s d’Etat always has been very good, but he’s taken his game to a different level as a 7-year-old and will be a very short priced favorite to extend his winning streak to five in this year’s renewal of the Whitney S.-G1. The son of Smart Strike has recently beaten two of his main rivals – By My Standards in the Stephen Foster and Improbable in the Oaklawn Mile - and probably should be most concerned about Code of Honor, a perfect two-for-two over the local main track including the Travers S.-G1, and very respectable recent third in the Met Mile-G1. From a pace-projection standpoint, the sure fire controlling speed Mr. Buff will take them as far as he can, but Tom’s d’Etat should have no difficulty reeling him in whenever he so desires. Obviously, this is an unplayable race other than to use the favorite as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Three Technique; 11-Tap It to Win

Forecast: Let’s employ the horse-for-course theory to get this year’s edition of the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 down to just two main players. Tap It to Win, so impressive breaking his maiden over this track last year, has been freshened since the Belmont S.-G1 and should rebound in a huge way at this extended sprint trip that is made to order for his pace-forcing/stalking style. The M. Casse-trained colt has trained superbly since arriving at the Spa and should have every chance to bounce back from his cozy outside draw that will permit Johnny V. to dictate the trip. At 5-1 on the morning line the son of Tapit represents a good gamble. Three Technique has a powerful late kick that is most effective around one turn, and after being given some time off returns in a spot that will bring out his best. A winner over this track and distance when breaking his maiden last year, the son of Mr Speaker is reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz and should lag early and blast home late. At 6-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.
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RACE 11: Post 6:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cross Border; 6-Sadler’s Joy

Forecast: Cross Border returns in two weeks after a facile score in the Lubash S. for New York-bred horses in a race that was nothing more than a springboard to this more important event. A perfect four-for-four over the local turf course, the son of English Channel figures to be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position (perhaps tracking Marzo) and then have his chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. That said, this group usually takes turns, so maybe it’s time for Sadler’s Joy get back in the winner’s circle. Third in his last three starts but beaten less than a length in the Manhattan S.-G1 last time out, the veteran gelding is due for a bit luck and usually runs well over the Saratoga grass course. The pace figures to be on the dawdling side, but with good racing luck he’ll be in the fray in the final furlong.
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RACE 12: Post 7:22 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-I’llhandalthecash; 7-Dalika

Forecast: Dalika has found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter. A middle distance performer most of her career, the German-bred filly shortened to win an overnight allowance grass dash at Churchill Downs two runs back in very impressive fashion, and then lost little in defeat when flying home but just running out of room when second in the listed License Fee S. last month at Belmont Park. A half mile blow out in :46 1/5 over the Saratoga training turf track (fastest of 31) indicates she’s razor sharp and ready to return to winning form, although her late-running style can be susceptible to traffic trouble, especially in a 10-runner field. I’llhandalthecash just held off Dalika in the License Fee S., while on the pace throughout while recording a career-top speed figure, and similar pace-forcing tactics are sure to be employed again. She’s won over the local lawn in the past and probably has further improvement in her. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Dalika.