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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/5/20

by Jeff Siegel

August 5, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: Cancelled

Forecast: This first race, originally carded for hurdlers, has been cancelled.

RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Icy Dude; 5-The Joke’s On Your; 6-Naughty Prince; 8-Mine the Coin

Forecast: We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Too many question marks. Icy Dude is lightly-raced and improving, and while another forward move is required for the L. Rice-trained gelding to be competitive at this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level he may be capable of producing a decent late kick in a race in which the front-runners appear vulnerable. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s at least semi-attractive. Meanwhile, the other (lower priced at 3-1) L. Rice-entrant, The Joke’s On You, has been away since February following a 13-length front-running romp in a maiden $25,000 at Aqueduct and returns unprotected on the drop, not a good sign. He’s also facing much more speed today. Naughty Prince displayed a bit of moxie when graduating at first asking in a maiden $20,000 extended sprint at Keeneland last month and appears live right back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the son of Into Mischief secure the lead and get brave, though at 9/5 on the morning line there’s not much wagering value to be found. Mine the Coin is stretching out after a series of one-turn races but his outside draw in a race with other speed types drawn inside of him combined with a relatively short run into the first turn makes his trip problematic. If he can get over, save some ground and secure a good stalking position the Speightstown gelding should be a major player but it’s hard to see the race flow develop in his favor. That said, we have to use him based on several speed figures in his resume that are good enough to win.

RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Three Jokers; 5-More Grayful; 6-Three Outlaws;

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf, will be contested at five and one-half furlongs on the main track, and therefore should be treated with a bit of caution. Three Jokers – entered for main track only – gets his wish and simply has better dirt track form than the others. This will be his third start off a layoff and it should produce his best performance to date. Also, he was stakes placed last year and is a perfect one-for-one at the Spa, having graduated in his debut here last year in a sharp performance. More Grayful adds blinkers for the first time and shows form last year that gives him a look. The B . Cox-trained gelding has an effective late kick but will need some help up front at this abbreviated sprint distance. Three Outlaws is an older gelding fresh from a career-top performance when winning a starter’s allowance grass dash here 11 days ago in his first start since December and his first for new trainer R. Atras. The short rest following a hard comeback race is always a concern, but if he can turn in two alike (something he’s never done) and duplicate his turf from on the main track, the Goldencents gelding could make his presence felt.

RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Golden Award; 4-Nonna Madeline

Forecast: Golden Award was eased when overmatched in the Ogden Phipps S.-G1 in June but returns in a restricted stakes that should allow the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to get back on track. The W. Mott-trained mare recorded a bullet five furlong training track drill (1:00.2b, fastest of eight) 10 days ago to have her on edge, and from her inside draw she’s assured of a good ground-saving, stalking trip over this same main track and distance that saw her win the Shuvee S.-G3 last year. Being eased in a Grade-1 and then coming back in her next outing to win a stakes isn’t new to her; she did the same thing last year. Nonna Madeline is a lightly-raced Candy Ride filly with rising numbers, though she finished second as the choice in each of her last two starts without mishap. She’s worth considering on a ticket or two as a backup.

RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-Summer Brew; 7-Big Time Lady

Forecast: Summer Brew hails from a stable that has superior stats with first-time starters and on that angle alone this juvenile daughter of Summer Front looks extremely well-meant in this abbreviated main tack sprint for New York-bred fillies. The work tab isn’t fancy but should have her plenty fit in a field in which there is only one prior starter, the 5/2 morning line favorite No Mo’ Spending, who faced opening company in Kentucky in her debut but really didn’t do a whole lot of running. You can toss her in if you like, but we’ll pass. Big Time Lady must be an impressive individual; she’s a daughter of Big Brown (stands for $5,000) from a modest female family but brought $100,000 as a Saratoga yearling. Her works are fair to moderate for Rudy, who doesn’t win often with first-timers, but in an unclassified field she’s worth inclusion in your rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Control Group

Forecast: Control Group, boosted way up in class from $16,000 to $40,000 in his first off the claim by a hot outfit, loves Saratoga (three wins in five starts) and always has been a tough old pro (12 career wins from 34 starts). Fresh from a local five-length romp at this trip last month, he’s obviously on top of his game and should be capable of handling this raise in a race in which he can be the controlling speed if he wants to be. With I. Ortiz, Jr. staying aboard, let’s make the O. Noda-trained son of Posse a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Black Magic Woman

Forecast: Black Magic Woman has done some exceptional things in the morning leading up to her racing debut while turning in some fast final times and outworking older, proven runners with authority. She draws the rail in this extended sprint for older fillies and mares – not exactly an ideal spot for a first time starter – but the daughter of Uncle Mo appears several cuts above what normally shows up in this type of race and therefore is listed at 6/5 on the morning line for the T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz, Jr. team. She’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Grumps Little Tots; 6-Super Dude

Forecast: We’ll give Super Dude a slight edge on top in this $50,000 nine furlong main track claimer. A winner over the Saratoga main track at this trip last year, the son of First Dude finished a willing third with a wide rally trip last month at Belmont Park and get gets two-turns and a bit more distance to work with today while being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. Grumps Little Tots, in his second off a layoff for the high percentage trainer R. Atras, should be forwardly placed, maybe even on the lead, and is another with proven winning form over this track and distance, having produced a highly-rated victory in gate-to-wire style here last year in a good allowance race. The Sky Mesa gelding may have been a tad rusty when third when protected in an allowance race at Delaware Park last month but has trained steadily since and should produce a forward move. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Traipsing; 6-Foxtail

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be run at a mile and one-eighth on the main track. Due to the surface change, the field has been reduced to four starters. Foxtail is undefeated in two main track outings (her other 14 career starts have been on grass), so it’s puzzling why she hasn’t been given more opportunities on dirt. She gets her chance today and should make the most of the opportunity while most likely inheriting the role as the controlling speed. Claimed in her last pair and moving up in class for a barn that has good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, the veteran daughter of Mizzen Mast was originally listed at 15-1 on the morning line but under these conditions should get plenty of play. Traipsing goes for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team and will be making her first start on dirt, though she does show a win on an all-weather track, for whatever that’s worth. Her pedigree suggests she’ll enjoy the switch to the main track, so we’ll include her in our rolling exotic play.

RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Women Not Easy; 5-Herwaze

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at a mile and one-eighth on the main track. Tread lightly. Women Not Easy should be the controlling speed from her inside draw and could get brave in a race lacking in effective closers. Herwaze led the way into the lane but weakened late under these conditions here 11 days ago on grass; however, she could stick a bit better today with the projected stalking trip that she’s liable to inherit. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be comfortable on dirt.