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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/6/20

by Jeff Siegel

August 6, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, August 6, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Macho Jack; 6-Cause I Said So

Forecast: Macho Jack makes his first start since last October for new trainer R. Rodriguez and returns in a logical spot, a bottom-rung maiden claimer, with a series of recent workouts that should have him fit and ready. The barn is solid with layoff runners, his figures are adequate for the level, and he doesn’t have much to beat, hence his morning line of 8/5. Cause I Said So, in his second off a layoff and dropping to his lowest level ever, switches to J. Rosario and shows the route-to-spring angle that we like. In the frame in three of five career starts, the son of Creative Cause should be in the fray throughout. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Macho Jack on top.

RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Keota; 6-Jades Gelly

Forecast: Keota looks solid in this starter’s allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares, but at 4/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with her. In her second start since being transferred to the C. Brown barn, the daughter of Lohnro missed at 3/5 when runner-up in a similar spot last month at Belmont Park but was below her true form that day and shows a healthy work pattern since, so we’re expecting to see her best stuff. Jades Gelly, a close third in the same race Keota exits, has room for improvement and is the one to fear most. The W. Ward-trained filly has a good stalking style and should be free of trouble and have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Keota.

RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Star of the West; 7-My Sacred Place

Forecast: Here’s a somewhat lackluster affair with two of the six entrants likely to receive the bulk of the play. Star of the West finished far back as the favorite in a starter’s allowance sprint here last month but his sharp maiden claiming win two runs back charts very well here and with the logical class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level the R. Rodriguez-trained colt seems likely to bounce back. My Sacred Place adds blinkers for the first time, is comfortably drawn outside, returns to dirt, shortens in trip, and drops sharply seeking his proper level. The B. Cox-trained colt seems sure to fire a big shot. Both should be included in your rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Catch a Cab; 11-Good Old Boy

ForecastCatch a Cab returns to his winning level, and a repeat of his race before last should be good enough. The M. Maker-trained gelding is winless in five starts over the Saratoga turf course – that’s a concern – but a couple of those efforts were pretty decent so we won’t be too concerned. With a good stalking trip and from a comfortable inside draw, the son of Proud Citizen shouldn’t have any excuses. Good Old Boy draws in from the also eligible list and will have to overcome the extreme outside draw, but although he’s moving up from $10,000 to $25,000 in claiming value he’s actually where he belongs, as this is a state-bred event and he’s exiting a series of open races in Florida. On pure numbers he’s a fit, and as a deep closer could make some noise late if he can negotiate a decent journey and get fractions to run at. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Catch a Cab on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shesadirtydancer; 6-Guardian Moon; 7-Lollygag

Forecast: State-bred juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass in the fifth, an intriguing affair with a number of possibilities. Guardian Moon makes her debut for a barn that excels with debut runners (28%, massive flat-bet profit) and looks extremely live with J. Rosario taking the call following a series of sharp drills that should have her primed and ready. Certainly bred for grass (Declaration of War) and with a bullet three furlong blowout (:35 2/5, fastest of 15) just five days ago, the J. Abreu-trained filly seems likely to come out firing. Shesadirtydancer has the benefit of two prior runs and shows an improving pattern after finishing a close third in a main track dash last month after pressing the pace throughout. With another forward move over a surface she’s bred to like, the R. Rodriguez-trained daughter of War Dancer switches to J. Castellano and is one of two with prior experience that should be considered, along with the Kentucky shipper Lollygag. The daughter of Freud closed a gap to be fourth in a decent effort at Keeneland last month and has every reason to step forward for a stable that has good stats with the maiden second start angle. She was a big price in that race (37-1) but figures to get plenty of support today.

RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Gesture; 4-Wicked Title

Forecast: Wicked Title, claimed for $25,000 last month after finishing a fair third, shows up today for $16,000 in her first start for the L. Rice barn, which normally is not a healthy sign but acceptable for this outfit, which hits at 24% with the first-off-the-claim angle. The daughter of Wicked Strong has the proper style for an extended sprint; her only career win came at this seven furlong distance. Additionally, she picks up the barn’s “go-to” rider J. Lezcano and should settle in the second flight and then have every chance to seal the deal. Gesture, a lightly-raced Tapiture filly, arrives from Florida with good recent form, most recently finishing a second to a next-out winner in a $20,000 one-turn miler at Gulfstream Park in mid-June. She adds blinkers for the first time and projects to be prominent throughout. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two – preference on top goes to Wicked Title – and we’ll be using both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Dyna Passer; 6-Eliade

Forecast: Dyna Passer ran well over this course and distance (third, beaten a neck) in her only prior start over the Saratoga lawn and was a 12-furlong winner this past winter at Gulfstream Park, so as a proven marathoner she’s the logical top pick in this second-level allowance affair. She’s most likely to enjoy a second flight, stalking position and then be able to kick on with it when turned looseEliade was given a run in her U.S. debut in mid-June at Belmont Park in a nine furlong affair and should benefit greatly that outing along with today’s additional distance. The C. Brown-trained French-bred filly was listed stakes-placed twice overseas, so this group should be well within her capabilities. She’ll be doing her best work from off the pace and with a little help up front should be a major player when it matters the most. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give a bit of an edge on top to Dyna Passer.

RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Fresco; 4-Turbo Drive; 6-Jolting Joe

Forecast: Fresco won a similar affair last month over the local lawn when facing fillies and should be tough right back despite this time tackling the boys. The C. Clement-trained daughter of Freud has a good inside draw, is solid on numbers, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and seems like a filly with a future. Jolting Joe is a maiden but is fastest on figures and is the likely choice and one to beat. In his second start off a long layoff, the Ellis Park shipper is returning off short rest – just 12 days – but if he duplicates his most recent effort he’ll be tough. Second in all four career starts but never with a backward move, the son of Mission Impazible should draft into a good stalking position from his outside draw in a race that projects to have modest fractions, and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Turbo Drive is a deep closer that might be victimized by the race-flow, but he’s a seasoned gelding fresh from a clever score vs. first-level allowance types here late last month. With some help up front the M. Maker-trained gelding could make similar noise against this group. We’ll have tickets including all three in our rolling exotics but then press with Fresco on top.

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Elusive Ruler; 8-King’s Honor

Forecast: Elusive Ruler certainly won’t be offering any wagering value at even money on the money line but if the I. Wilkes-trained gelding shows up with his best stuff in this, his first start in a seller, the son of Empire Maker should be able to regain his winning form. On pure numbers he owns a clear edge, and two recent races in Kentucky, while not particularly productive, weren’t bad considering the strength of the competition. Let’s also toss in a big price. King’s Honor returns to the claiming ranks and may improve enough to outrun his 15-1 morning line odds. The Kingman gelding, in his second off a layoff, got some of the rust off when chasing home a tougher field sprinting at Belmont Park and arrives from his home base at Laurel Park for good connections with the opportunity to press or stalk what projects to be a moderate early pace. The Irish-bred is worth including somewhere on your ticket.