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Friday, August 07: Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 7, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Third Race – Post Time: 3:08 PT
7 – Veteran (4-1)

Shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends after a pair of disappointing races vs. much stronger maiden special weight foes to begin his career. The R. Mandella-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m., so we’re willing to give the son of Quality Road one more chance. Definitely has the early speed to be on or near the lead throughout and against this band he may forget to stop. There may be good value at his morning line of 4-1 if you can get it.

Ninth Race – Post Time: 6:09 PT.
7 – Alice Marble (6-1)

Was given a race in her debut in June after falling far back early and then closing a ton ground through the lane but much too late in a performance that was featured in a Black Book segment (view video). The daughter of Grazen should get serious today, and a series of significant workouts at Los Alamitos since that outing indicates the S. Miyadi-trained sophomore has considerably more early speed than she showed first time out. With the switch to underrated jockey R. Gonzalez for a barn that has superior stats with second-timers, she’s worth a play at 6-1 on the morning line in this California-bred five furlong turf sprint.

Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Klickitat

Forecast: The Friday opener is a race we’re not planning to get too involved in. It’s maiden $40,000 inner turf claiming router featuring an even money morning line favorite Klickitat, a nine race maiden and beaten in a photo in his last pair, most recently off a long layoff. The J. Jerkens-trained gelding has little to beat and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from his good inside draw. Additionally, his numbers are better than par for the level and the First Samurai gelding appears capable of running equally well on the lead or from off the pace. In a no-value wagering affair, he’s a logical short price rolling exotic single, so you can use him in that role and simply sit out the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Seven Seven

ForecastSeven Seven, a $77,000 2-year-old in training purchase, was a bit green but displayed plenty of ability when breezing a furlong in :10 1/5 at the OBS March Sale, showing good athleticism and a nice way of going after switching to his correct lead late in that workout. At Monmouth Park the son of Laoban shows a healthy if not flashy work tab for K. Breen, whose stats with debut runners are quite impressive. From his comfortable outside draw he can load last and hopefully break first. In a race reduced to just six starters following overnight scratches and with the known element not terribly inspiring, let’s take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C
Use: 6-Sun Summers; 9-Bean Counter

Forecast: Bean Counter, a lightly-raced 4-year-old filly that originally brought $220,000 at auction, most recently won a starter’s $50,000 allowance turf miler at Belmont Park in mid-June and today shows up in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 seller. Obviously, she’s being culled from the stable (you’ll see this a lot with the yearling sales approaching) but the T. Pletcher-trained daughter of Into Mischief can beat this field if she at least one good one left in her. The likely favorite and our slight top pick is Sun Summers, a recent $40,000 claim by M. Maker in a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 grass affair at Belmont Park in late June. Her new connections aren’t worried about protecting her based on the return for a slightly lesser price tag, but on pure numbers she’s comparable to ‘Counter and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Kemba; 5-Halo City; 7-Baseline Drive

ForecastBaseline Drive missed at 4/5 in her debut vs. maiden special weight fillies and mares at Gulfstream Park in June, winding up fourth after a slow start and a wide trip. It wasn’t a bad race according to the numbers and this drop to the maiden $75,000 level seems appropriate for a barn that has superior stats (35% with a flat-bet profit) with this angle. We’re expecting the daughter of Point of Honor to be along in time. Others worth considering in rolling exotic play include Kemba and Halo City. The former ran surprisingly well at 93-1 when pressing the pace and holding on well to be third vs. tougher straight maidens last time out and picks up J. Rosario while dropping back into a seller, while the ‘City has speed figures that fit and could show improvement if held up early and allowed to rally late.

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Honor Way; 3-Fair Regis; 4-Kept True

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares that has at least three legitimate possibilities It’s a spread race in rolling exotic play with at a chance to collect on a decent price. Honor Way is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter and drops into a realistic spot after being outrun in the much stronger restricted stakes here last month. The veteran mare – a real pro with 10 career victories – is ideally suited for this extended sprint distance (she’s a career 3-for-6 at this exact trip) and with a little help up front should be dangerous in the final furlong. Back with “win rider” J. Ortiz and over the Saratoga main track which she’s shown a liking for in the past, the C. Baker-trained mare offers value at or near her morning line of 5-1. Fair Regis, a close third behind Honor Way under similar conditions two runs back, is a major player once again and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line. She has a bit more tactical speed than ‘Way and should have every chance from a pace stalking position. I. Ortiz, Jr., who has won on her in the past, gets back aboard. Kept True adds blinkers and seems likely to be the quickest of the quick. Freshened since March but with a recent work tab that should have her plenty fit, the daughter of Yes It’s True was a good winner over this track last year off a similar layoff and can be expected to fire a big shot fresh, though the barn’s record with come-backers isn’t one to brag about. If she clears easily she may get very brave.

RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-O’Gotten Girl; 7-Mad Maddy; 8-Army Wife; 10-Credit Enhancement

Forecast: This is a stronger-than-par maiden special weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies containing several promising newcomers that are bred to excel on grass. O’Gotten Girl actually is one that doesn’t really have a grass pedigree but she’s very quick and much more dangerous than her 15-1 morning line would indicate. The daughter of Competitive Edge shows no stakes winners in the first three generations of her female family yet brought $140,000 at the OBS April sale after breezing a quarter mile in :20 4/5. She didn’t change leads in that workout, nor did she in a local July 26 main track drill in which she was hard held and able to go considerable faster if permitted. From the rail she has to leave with her field but if the G. Gullo-trained filly breaks well she might be extremely dangerous at a big price. Amy Wife also has impressed in the morning in drills that have been accomplished exclusively on dirt. Certainly bred to excel on turf, the daughter of Declaration of War breezed a furlong in :10 1/5 at the OBS April sale before being sold for $190,000. She’s an efficient mover with a good turn of foot and looks very dangerous first crack out of the box for trainer M. Maker. Credit Enhancement has been less impressive in the morning that either ‘Girl or ‘Wife but she’s a daughter of More Than Ready and could easily be much comfortable on grass than dirt This will be her first opportunity to get a feel of the lawn and the surface could move her up considerably for C. Brown (22% with first-timers). The most dangerous of the known element is the extremely quick Mad Maddy. She cut out good fractions when runner-up over this course and distance last month but didn’t find much off the bridle when succumbing to the talented Outadore in the final furlong. The daughter of American Pharoah has had three starts and really hasn’t yet produced any significant forward move, but if the others don’t fire, she could get loose early and roll all the way to the wire.

RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Archumybaby; 5-Daria’s Angel; 9-Keep Your Distance

Forecast: Older $25,000 claiming fillies and mares compete in an elongated sprint in fairly competitive race for the level. Archumybaby returns to her winning level after finishing a respectable third in a $32,000 claimer over this track last month. That race was at six furlongs; today’s seven furlong trip is much more to her liking (3 wins in 5 starts) so we’re anticipating the O. Noda-trained mare will be able to settle just off the leaders and then kick home when it counts. There are a couple of others to consider in your rolling exotics, at least as back-ups. Keep Your Distance was waiver protected when winning a $16,00 seller off the bench in mid-June and today is double jumped in class in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. She’s a lifetime winner of 16 races and too far too genuine to dismiss, even though she’s been facing less foes in all of her recent outings. Daria’s Angel was a winner for $32,000 when last seen in February but then disappeared. She returns on the one-level drop – not a particularly encouraging sign – but if she comes back as well as she left the veteran Gemologist mare could be in the thick of it throughout.

RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Silky Blue; 7-Jen’s Battle

Forecast: Silky Blue was 18-1 when she graduated in her second career start in mid-June at Belmont Park, doing so at the expense of subsequent stakes winner Fresco, and the daughter of Hard Spun looks very live on the one-level raise while stretching out to a mile from a comfortable inside draw. She’ll probably not offer a whole lot of wagering value at 9/5 on the morning line but if she handles the two-turn trip she’ll be tough. Jen’s Battle is also trying a distance of ground for the first time and projects to be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead. She remains protected after being claimed for $40,000 last November, and after a couple of recent sprint outings the daughter of Declaration of War should be sharp on the stretch-out. J. Rosario stays aboard, another positive factor. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two rolling exotic play.

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Cazadero; 9-Therideofalifetime; 10-Jackie’s Warrior

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Saratoga Special S.-G2 appears to have come up stronger than usual. We’ll go three-deep while preferring the recent highly-impressive Keeneland maiden winner Therideofalifetime on top. His fast, highly-rated score last month was accomplished on the lead, but he’ll probably be relegated to a stalker’s role in a field with plenty of early zip. He has to prove he can win with that type of trip; the gamble is that he can. Cazadero, unbeaten in two starts including the Bashford Manor S.-G3 at Churchill Downs, proved he could settle off a hot pace and rally in the lane last time out and similar tactics should be employed today. The son of Street Sense isn’t quite as fast on pure numbers as Therideofalifetime, so we’ll see what he’s really made of today. Jackie’s Warrior won his debut at the expense of Therideofalifetime despite a less than ideal trip and could easily score right back. From his outside draw the son of Maclean’s Music should pop and go and may be quick enough to clear the field. With R. Santana, Jr. opting for his S. Asmussen-trained stablemate Cazadero (as he should), J. Rosario picks up the call.

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tilsa; 5-Dripping In

ForecastTisla drops into a winning spot in this modest maiden $40,000 turf dash for fillies and mares and should appreciate sprinting for the first time in her third career start. After setting the pace and then weakening when facing tougher maiden $75,000 milers at Belmont Park last time out, she projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field in which most of the closers have been thoroughly exposed. She looks on paper every bit the 2-1 morning line favorite that she is. Dripping In, like our top pick a route-to-sprint play, is a 10-race maiden but has never raced at this level. She removes blinkers, switches to J. Rosario, and should be included somewhere on your ticket.