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Betting Assiniboia's Pick 5 Carryover with 1/ST BET Assistance

by Jeremy Plonk

August 11, 2020

When we last convened in this space July 6 for an Assiniboia Downs pick five carryover payout pool, we were able to utilize the 1/ST INDEX-generated selections, the 1/ST BET database at Betmix and some good, old-fashioned handicapping ingenuity to navigate our way through the darkness. It resulted in an 891-1 return from a $447,000 carryover that lured nearly $2.7 million in new money.

Tuesday's card features a $420,542 carryover on mandatory payout night, and the pick five will be Races 3-7 to conclude the card. First post is 8:35 pm ET and the pick five sequence is slated to kick off in Race 3 at 9:35 pm ET. You can bet the Assiniboia Downs card on the 1/ST BET app as well as at Xpressbet.com.

Favorites have won 43% of the 201 races overall this season at Assiniboia Downs. That’s how the 20-cent minimum jackpot pick 5 has carried over 14 days since the July 6 mandatory payout; not because of crazy results, but because of logical results that lessen the chance of a single-ticket winner taking the pool. You don’t need to be solo Tuesday night, just correct on all 5 races. And if things remain logical, you’ll be best-served with a focused ticket that you can play multiple times at the 20-cent minimum vs. spreading thin and just hoping for prices. My $1.20 ticket netted over $1,000 last time, for instance.

Let’s take a look at the Pick 5 races with a handicapper’s eye and the help of the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence selections.

Race 3
Jeremy’s tip: Heavy morning line chalk #2 Stevie Mac (6-5 ML) hails from Shelly Brown barn that’s 15-for-17 in the exacta at the meet with favorites (8 wins). But she loses her rider Antonio Whitehall to #5 Witt’s Gato (5-1 ML), and that’s significant in that he’s the meet’s top pilot at 5-1/2 furlongs (10 wins, 26% win rate). Whitehall and trainer Jerry Gourneau are 4-for-10 with dashers at this distance at the meet, including 2-for-3 with horses 4-1 or more odds. #6 Two Steps Faster (5-2 ML) was beaten favorite last out and trainer Brent Hrymak is 2-for-3 at the meet with horses who return after being the beaten favorite. Stevie Mac’s 12-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is tied for the largest in the sequence.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#2 Stevie Mac (31%W // 51%P // 68%S)
#6 Two Steps Faster (19%W // 40%P // 58%S)
#3 Fat N Bitter (14%W // 24%P // 42%S)

Race 4
Jeremy’s tip: Favorites are 17-for-34 (50%) at the meet in 6-furlong claimers. Morning line choice #1 Witts Data Link (2-1 ML) takes a massive class drop to a more fitting level. But her woeful stakes finish was after a barn change to a 7% outfit. She certainly could win, but doesn’t seem like a rubber stamp. The 1/ST INDEX AI tabs her only fourth choice. #7 Elsie’s Parade (5-1 ML) will take more money than the morning line suggests, and may go favored in my estimation. Jockey Antonio Whitehall is a marvelous 20-for-60 (33%) in 6-furlong sprints at the meet. There’s very little early speed in this race if you can identify the pace player, you might see a wire-to-wire effort. My projection is Whitewall will sense that and urge Elsie’s Parade from the gate as a potential gutsy single.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#7 Elsie’s Parade (26%W // 46%P // 62%S)
#6 Shez Wicked Fast (19%W // 37%P // 53%S)
#3 Peeper (16%W // 34%P // 51%S)

Race 5
Jeremy’s tip: The 7-furlong claiming races at the meet have given favorites a bit of trouble as they’ve underperformed at 4-for-12 (33%). Only 1 winner has been above 9-2 odds, so stick to contenders, but don’t over-focus on the chalk. Last-out winners coming back in 7-furlong claimers have had strong recent success at the meet. They’re 7: 3-1-2 since late July, which bodes well for #1 Sask Lady and #2 Hellocountrybumpkin. Jockeys Antonio Whitehall (6-14) and Richard Mangalee (3-9) have accounted for more than half of the 7-furlong wins at the meet. They pilot #4 Twisted Sensation and #2 Hellocountrybumpikin, respectively. Sask Lady’s 12-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is tied for the largest in the sequence.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#1 Sask Lady (31%W // 49%P // 60%S)
#3 Say It’s Not So (19%W // 40%P // 57%S)
#4 Twisted Sensation (10%W // 25%P // 41%S)

Race 6
Jeremy’s tip: Favorites are 17-for-34 (50%) at the meet in 6-furlong claimers, and public support here comes down to #3 Soul Obsession and #8 You’ll Like It. Leading rider Antonio Whitehall jumps from You’ll Like It to Soul Obsession, and that’s likely significant. Whitehall has gone 7: 4-1-2 when teamed with trainer Jared Brown in recent weeks, including a perfect 4-for-4 at 6 furlongs. I’ll make this one a single. With the sequence’s second-largest field pre-scratches (9), you might get more value with the favorite as less-confident players spread to cover the combinations.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#3 Soul Obsession (25%W // 42%P // 55%S)
#2 Double Time (18%W // 33%P // 47%S)
#6 Warren’s Van Gogh (15%W // 31%P // 45%S)

Race 7
Jeremy’s tip: The largest field pre-scratches in the pick five (10) anchors, and True Kommando’s 4-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is the narrowest in the sequence. This seems an obvious spot where players may spread, so if you can narrow, you’ll be better-positioned. Jockey Nirone Austin has a meet-best 11: 3-1-3 record in the rarely run 1-mile races. He’ll partner with rail-drawn #1 Run Jeanne Run. Of the 15 mile races run at the meet, 12 winners have been 3-1 or less (only 1 above 7-1). Twelve of the 15 winners exited races at 7-1/2 furlongs or longer.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#4 True Kommando (24%W // 45%P // 56%S)
#1 Run Jeanne Run (20%W // 34%P // 48%S)
#3 Captain John (12%W // 24%P // 38%S)