Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade:
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Malibu Luna

Forecast: Malibu Luna is wheeled back quickly in 13 days after finishing a fair-to-moderate fourth in her debut in open maiden allowance company. Today’s race – restricted to horses that sold or were bought back for $45,000 or less at auction in their most recent sale – appears on paper to be a decidedly easier assignment, so with a prior run under her belt, a favorable outside draw, and from a barn that is solid with second-time starters this daughter of Orb appears to well-spotted to earn her diploma in a race in which the none of the first-timers have been particularly impressive in the a.m. At 2-1 on the morning line the W. Mott-trained filly looks like a win play, or if she goes lower than that at least a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Olendon; 5-Xanthique; 7-Turf War

Forecast: This second-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares looks a bit chaotic on paper and therefore requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Truthfully, each of the six intended starters has a right to be competitive, so the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Xanthique is intriguing mainly because this will be her the first turf sprint in her career and the turn back in distance for the daughter of Into Mischief might suit her very well. There’s really nothing wrong with her middle distance grass efforts – she’s won three of eight on the lawn and is fresh from a first level allowance win in late June at Belmont Park – but at this trip the T. Morley trained filly looks likely to draft into a second flight, stalking position and then have her chance to blast home from the top of the lane to the wire. Olendon, second in her last pair and still seeking her first U.S. victory after being imported from the France, should be forwardly placed from her good inside draw, and with rising speed figures she has continued to steadily improve. She’ll get plenty of play at 9/5 on the morning line. Turf War is a second-off-the-layoff play for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario trainer-jockey combo and seems likely to produce a forward move after finishing a good third under these conditions last month. However, the War Front filly is a late-running sprinter that will need some help up front to be most effective in a race that projects to have a modest early pace. Still, you have to use her somewhere.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Blood Moon; 6-Grit and Glory

Forecast: Here’s another challenging affair that has contenders top to bottom in a six runner starter’s allowance event over nine furlongs on the main track. We’ll try to get by using just two; you may find the need to spread deeper. Blood Moon, third in a similar affair last month when cutting out good fractions before weakening in the final furlong, might find himself on the front end again today, and in a race with suspect closers he could roll all the way to the wire. The 3-year-old son of Malibu Moon earned a career top speed figure in that outing and probably has additional improvement in him. Grit and Glory is protected today after winning a restricted (nw-3) $14,000 event over this track and distance last month in his first-start-off-the-claim for L. Rice. The Malibu Moon gelding laid his body down that day and shows no workouts since that race 28 days go and he’s picking up eight pounds with the switch from bug boy Cardenas to J. Lezcano. Truthfully, we’re not quite sure what we’ll see from him today. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Robin Sparkles; 7-Frenchie Frou Frou; 12-Dream Chasing

Forecast: Maiden claiming state-bred fillies and mares meet in a real grass grab bag sprint in which no result should be considered surprising. Robin Sparkles flashed big speed before faltering badly in her debut over a sloppy track last month at Belmont Park and uses that poor run as an opportunity for a class drop into a woefully weak affair. Certainly bred for grass (Elusive Quality) and retaining J. Ortiz, the B. Brown-trained sophomore may be the quickest in the field and should stick a whole lot better at this shorter trip under these conditions. Dream Chasing has rising speed figures with every start and is the likely favorite, and one to beat. Freshened for more than a month but with a bullet drill since raced (:36 3b, fastest of 11 July 26), the C. Clement-trained filly must leave from a challenging outside post but may be quick enough to get over and secure a reasonable early stalking position. Frenchie Frou Frou turns back from a router, adds blinkers for the first time, switches to T. Gaffalione and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. Her third place finish vs. similar sprinting on turf at Belmont Park two runs back wasn’t bad, and really not much more will be needed today, assuming she can avoid traffic trouble.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Risky Mandate; Foxtail

Forecast: Risky Mandate tries two turns for the first time, and if she’s ever going to stay nine furlongs it will be in her first try. With rising sprint speed figures and a solid effort over the track last month when third in the listed Shine Again S., the T. Amoss-trained 4-year-old filly should out class this second-level allowance field, and after a bullet half mile breezing workout (:46 flat, fastest of 32) in the interim the daughter of Strong Mandate clearly is on top of her game. Foxtail is a perfect 3-for-3 on dirt and just won at this optional $62,500 claiming level in an off-the-turf affair eight days ago when allowed to stroll on the front end as the controlling speed. Similar tactics likely will be employed again but beating the 6/5 morning line favorite will be a challenge. We’ll prefer Strong Mandate on top, but due to the uncertainly of her ability to handle the trip will also include Foxtail on our ticket as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-It’s a Gamble; 7-Daggerboard; 8-I’m Blaming You

Forecast: Juvenile state-bred maidens sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass. The 5/2 morning line favorite Thin White Duke has hit the board in all three of his starts but has been beaten as the choice in his last pair and his speed figures are decidedly lower than par. If none of the first-timers can run much he could win, but we’re going to try to beat him with a trio of debut runners that have credentials to be at least a little bit better than ordinary. It’s a Gamble certainly is bred for turf (English Channel) but not necessary to sprint (his dam, Yes It’s Pink, was primarily a closing router) so this abbreviated trip might be a bit sharp for his liking, but the barn is excellent with newcomers (18% with a significant flat-bet profit) and with the presence of J. Rosario in the saddle we have a sneaky suspicion that this K. Breen-trained colt is live. Because he’s 6-1 on the morning line, we’ll put him on top. Daggerboard doesn’t show any fancy workout times while preparing for his debut and the B. Cox barn hasn’t set the world on fire so far this season (3-for-23) but a near-bullet gate drill in :47 3/5 (third fastest of 103) in early July catches the eye, so maybe this son of Mizzen Mast can run some. He’s another listed at 6-1 on the morning line and at that price there may be some value to be found. I’m Blaming You is a smallish 2-year-old in the D. O’Neill barn that breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds on his wrong lead at the OBS March before bringing $100,000 through the ring. Based on pedigree and a couple of drills since arriving at Saratoga he gives the impression that his comfort zone lies ahead in races with more distance. Also, the babies from D. O’Neill’s barn haven’t performed up to expectations this season. That said, he’s a half-brother to the recent Christiana S. winner (on turf) Trickle In at Delaware Park and his dam, Knox County Zip, was a quick 2yo five furlong maiden special weight sprint winner at Gulfstream Park and was sired by the City Zip, a superior sire of grass runners. You have to include him somewhere.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mandate; 6-Bray

Forecast: Bray is a first-off-the-claim for Rudy following a good score in a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer last month and is protected today in a sign of confidence while being raised to starter’s allowance company. A healthy series of workouts since raced is another positive sign, so let’s give this son of Shakin It Up a big chance to pay quick dividends for his new connections. Mandate just scored over this course and distance with a career top speed figure; however, the son of Blame is a deep closer in a race that promises to be slowly run early, so his task won’t be easy. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Ratajkowski; 6-Newly Minted

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Union Avenue H. drew six entrants but on paper should boil down to something of a match race. Ratajkowski won the Critical Eye S. in her first start of the year in June at Belmont Park and has been given almost two months to recover from what had to be a hard, taxing effort. The lightly-raced six year old mare by Drosselmeyer shows excellent previous form at Saratoga and this turn back to an elongated sprint should suit her just fine. Newly Minted is a “must include” on your ticket as well. Genuine and consistent and drawn in a comfortable outside post that will assure he an ideal stalking trip, the daughter of Central Banker has been away since March but has a history of fire big fresh and is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga main track, having won the Fleet Indian S. by nine lengths here last year. Additionally, she’s unbeaten (in one start) at this seven furlong trip.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Single: 10-Data Analytics

Forecast: Data Analytics trained very well as a 2-year-old prior to her debut last fall at Belmont Park but after being set off as a strong favorite the daughter of Into Mischief failed to show much and wound up well-beaten, after which she was sent home. A series of solid drills at Monmouth Park should have her plenty fit for her return, so we’re very interested to see how she returns in this modest turf miler for maiden state-bred fillies and mares. The C. Brown barn hits at 29% with layoff runners, so in a field in which nothing else appears attractive let’s go with the fresh face and hope that she performs up to expectations this time around. At 9/2 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.