Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’s first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Simply Sweet; 4-Heavenly Sis; 6-Thankful

Forecast: This nine-furlong main track maiden race for fillies and mares drew just six starters, at least three of which have credentials to win. We’ll pass the race and utilize a spread strategy in our rolling exotics. Thankful, a distant runner-up in a hot race in June at Belmont Park, makes her first start in more than two months but has trained right along and should produce another forward move at a distance she’s bred to handle. Scratched as a “main track only” entrant 11 days ago, the daughter of American Pharoah shows a bullet half mile drill last week (:48 1/5, fastest of 21) for T. Pletcher that provides strong indication that she’s progressing with experience, and in a field that came up rather shallow we project her to be on or near the lead throughout. Heavenly Sis is a seven race maiden but has hit the board five times and has numbers that make her a solid contender. Runner-up in her last three while doing her best work from the quarter pole to the wire, the daughter of Hard Spun may be most effective if held up early and allowed to run late. Simply Sweet was given a race in her debut and quite frankly didn’t do a whole lot of running (she wound up a distant fourth) but the race she exits was fairly hot and the W. Mott-trained daughter of Super Saver seems likely to improve with that bit of experience behind her and at today’s two-turn trip. She’s listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite but we suspect she’ll drift a bit from that price.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Out of Trouble; 2-First Appeal

Forecast: Out of Trouble was far below her best form in her most recent two starts and therefore may be a bit shaky in this four-runner inner turf $25,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares, but this drop in class combined with a good inside draw and the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. could wake her up. The B. Cox-trained mare is most dangerous when able to stalk or press early moderate fractions and given the projected race flow of this affair she should get the trip she needs. On the other hand, at age six and with 32 career outings, the daughter of Into Mischief has to prove she still wants to be a race mare. First Appeal is strictly the one to beat as the 9/5 morning line favorite. She returns to her claim level while stretching out again after a series of turf sprints, and while she may be most comfortable around one-turn the veteran mare always has been a dependable type, having finished first or second in 16 of 33 career starts. Even those she’s never been a pace-presser, against this group she could find herself on or near the lead throughout. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Boom Boom Kaboom; 7-Disciplanarian; 8-Threepointninenine

Forecast: State-bred maiden $40,000 claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass in a race that sees five of the eight runners exiting the same race. Threepointninenine pressed the pace but was swallowed up late in that July 30 affair, winding up fifth but beaten less than two lengths. It was just his second career start, so the son of Jimmy Creed may have a degree of improvement in him that the other more exposed entrants don’t. It’s not difficult to envision the T. Morley-trained gelding getting over from his outside draw to make the running and leading throughout. Boom Boom Kaboom was disappointing when eighth (beaten three lengths) as the favorite in that common race last month but removes blinkers, switches to R. Santana, Jr., and rates a look based on his previous grass efforts that chart pretty well with this modest band. Disciplanarian, in the frame in five of 10 career starts and third in that same race as the others, has a chance as well but shows speed figures that have stagnated of late.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Customerexperience; 6-Leaveuwithasmile

Forecast: Leavuwithasmile won a $25,000 claimer here last month with a respectable speed figure, was claimed by D. Gargan (superior stats with the first-off-the-claim angle) and returns on the one-level drop in a move that normally would be considered suspicious, perhaps even unhealthy. But this barn is very aggressive with its claiming stock, so the class drop off a win can’t really be taken as a negative, especially when a $43,000 purse is being offered. A winner of four of nine career starts, the 3-year-old filly can be effective on the lead or as a second-flight stalker, so the barn’s “go-to” rider L. Saez can play the race flow by ear. Customerexperience, third beaten three lengths by the favorite when they met last month, may be the one to fear most. She’s a late-closing sprinter with an extra half furlong to work with today so if she can negotiate a decent trip from the rail the R. Rodriguez-trained daughter of Cairo Prince could make some noise in the final furlong.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Red Mule; 4-Wild William; 5-Big Wonder

Forecast: There’s not a whole lot to trust in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint, so you may want to spread as deep as your budget allows. <bwas overmatched in a state-bred first-level allowance affair last month but he has a prior win over this course and distance and is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez, so in an open fray at 6-1 on the morning line he seems as good as any. Big Wonder is 1-for-26 and hardly one to bank on, and the barn doesn’t win many either, but off his best race the son of Big Brown certainly is a fit at this level and should stick better in this softer spot after a disappointing run vs. much tougher starter’s allowance foes here last month. Red Mule finally broke his maiden in his 10th career start last February at Gulfstream Park but then disappeared. Third when waiver protected in a $16,000 seller upon his return at Laurel Park three weeks ago, he moves up considerably in class for clever connections in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence and based strictly on speed figures the son of Red Rocks is competitive at this level. He also has a closing style in a race with several faint-hearted front-running types.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Stan the Man

Forecast: It’s pretty hard to get past the 7/5 morning line favorite, Stan the Man, in handicapping this five-runner restricted sprint stakes for older horses. The veteran Broken Vow gelding, a strong runner-up to Firenze Fire in the True North S.-G2 in late June, always has been a highly-dependable type (first or second in 13 of 23 starts) and after a brief freshening and healthy recent work tab he should find himself comfortably placed on or near the lead for the powerful J. Terranova/J. Rosario team. He’ll race without blinkers today – we always like this angle – so let’s make him a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Fetching; 4-The Important One; 5-Speightstown Gal

Forecast: We’re not sure Lead Guitar deserves to be as short as 6/5 on the morning line in this contentious state-bred second-level allowance turf dash for fillies and mares. She can win, yes, but there are others in the field that are better priced and a bit more appealing. Fetching turns back from a mile and exits the Mt. Vernon S. last month at Belmont Park; we’re expecting the daughter of Afleet Alex to be very effective at this trip in this optional claimer. A prior winner over the Saratoga turf course, she is dangerous as a late-running sprinter and gets ideal conditions for a major effort. The M. Casse barn has been ice all meeting long; maybe it’s time to start turning things around. Speightstown Gal was edged when second as the favorite in a similar affair here last month while on the pace; she might prefer to be held up early and allowed to run late. The Important One is lightly-raced and improving, and while she’s soft in the speed figure department the S. Asmusssen-trained filly is a progressive sort with some upside. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post 5:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Eye Luv Lulu; 7-Just Right

Forecast: The finale is a state-bred $25,000 claiming sprint for older horses; we’ll try to get using just two topped by the old pro Eye Luv Lulu, away since February and now in the R. Atras barn (solid stats with layoff runners). The nine-year-old gelding, first or second in 25 of 56 stats, is realistically spotted after competing in stakes events most of his long career and having run well fresh in the past he certainly deserves the edge on top against this level of competition. Just Right, second off a long layoff for T. Pletcher, finished a close second in a similar sprint last month and will be tough if he runs back to that race or, better yet, if produces a forward move.