Log In

Del Mar Full-Card Saturday Picks from 1/ST INDEX

by Jeremy Plonk

August 21, 2020

Saturday’s huge program at Del Mar gets underway at 5 pm ET / 2 pm PT and features an 11-race lineup. The Grade 1 Pacific Classic is one of five stakes races on the card, and will be Race 10. The 1/ST INDEX artificial intelligence selections throughout the program have been provided to give horseplayers a look how the contenders stack up in each race, using the 10 most-important of 53 analytical factors employed over more than 250,000 past races.

Race 1 (5:00PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

#5 Shanghai Groove (28%W // 50%P // 67%S) 6-1 ML 
#4 Avisse (13%W // 23%P // 37%S) 5-1 ML
#1 Frosted Blue (13%W // 34%P // 52%S) 10-1 ML
#3 Lady Mo (12%W // 29%P // 45%S) 20-1 ML

Notable: The algorithms don’t account as much for first-time starters as experienced horses. The public likely will focus on debut runners #2 Princess Noor, #6 Peachtree Road and #7 Flash Magic. #5 Shanghai Groove has a massive edge in percentages vs. the other experienced runners.

Race 2 (5:31PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

#2 Li’l Grazen (32%W // 52%P // 65%S) 8-5 ML
#1 Square Peggy (19%W // 35%P // 55%S) 8-1 ML
#7 Unchain Her Heart (15%W // 31%P // 48%S) 8-1 ML
#3 Noor Khan 14 %W // 29%P // 41%S) 8-1 ML

Notable: #2 Li’l Grazen has the third-highest win percentage of any top selection on the program. As the solid morning line favorite, she may be a ‘single’ in the early pick four and pick five.

Race 3 (6:05PM ET) // G3 Green Flash H. // 5 Furlongs (Turf)

#8 Mikes Tiznow (30%W // 49%P // 66%S) 9-2 ML
#1 Sparky Ville (16%W // 33%P // 52%S) 5-2 ML
#4 Torosay (14%W // 33%P // 44%S) 8-1 ML
#7 Chaos Theory (12%W // 30%P // 45%S) 7-2 ML

Notable: The 14-point spread between the top 2 selections is the second-largest on the program. The algorithm’s fair odds on #8 Mikes Tiznow are between 2-1 and 5-2, and he’s an overlay at 9-2 in the track morning line.

Race 4 (6:36PM ET) // G3 Torrey Pines S. // 1 Mile (Dirt) 

#2 Secret Keeper (35%W // 54%P // 67%S) 7-2 ML
#5 Aurelia Garland (23%W // 50%P // 72%S) 4-1 ML
#3 Harvest Moon (16%W // 41%P // 57%S) 2-1 ML
#6 Provocation (13%W // 22%P // 45%S) 9-2 ML

Notable: #2 Secret Keeper has the highest win-percentage on the entire program at 35%. Her fair odds based on the 1/ST INDEX are around 9-5, considerably lower than the 7-2 morning line, making her a potential overlay at that price.

Race 5 (7:06PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 1 Mile (Turf)

#8 Lane Way (27%W // 48%P // 59%S) 5-2 ML
#10 Absolute Unit (18%W // 30%P // 44%S) 5-1 ML
#12 Divine Armor (8%W // 22%P // 35%S) 5-1 ML
#4 Comradery (7%W // 15%P // 26%S) 15-1 ML

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX selections line up in accordance with the morning line odds in a race that projects to be formful, though #12 Divine Armor’s fair odds are closer to 12-1 than the 5-1 morning line, making him a possible underlay to avoid at shorter odds.

Race 6 (7:36PM ET) // Claiming // 6 Furlongs (Dirt) 

#10 Square Deal (24%W // 40%P // 50%S) 12-1 ML
#9 Taco Waco (16%W // 32%P // 44%S) 10-1 ML
#2 Baby Gronk (10%W // 24%P // 38%S) 7-2 ML
#7 Fratelli (8%W // 15%P // 23%S) 3-1 ML

Notable: The best overlay value on the program could come in this race as 12-1 morning #10 Square Deal is projected between 3-1 and 7-2 odds in the 1/ST INDEX. #9 Taco Deal also could be an overlay at the 10-1 morning line price, projected closer to 5-1 by the 1/ST INDEX.

Race 7 (8:06PM ET) // G2 Del Mar H. // 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) 

#1 United (24%W // 45%P // 58%S) 8-5 ML
#3 Combatant (17%W // 24%P // 33%S) 8-1 ML
#6 Proud Pedro (13%W // 21%P // 30%S) 12-1 ML
#2 Another Mystery (9%W // 18%P // 25%S) 20-1 ML

Notable: Favorite #1 United is the 1/ST INDEX top choice and looks solid on paper. But his price may be shorter than fair based on the morning line. #3 Combatant might be the value play at 8-1 morning line as his 1/ST INDEX fair odds are 5-1.

Race 8 (8:36PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 Mile (Dirt) 

#5 El Tigre Terrible (26%W // 44%P // 58%S) 4-1 ML
#6 Extra Hope (16%W // 38%P // 48%S) 5-2 ML
#7 Loud Mouth (13%W // 25%P // 43%S) 8-1 ML
#1 Unbroken Star (11%W // 23%P // 37%S) 12-1 ML

Notable: Top choice #5 El Tigre Terrible is a 10-point pick in the percentages and projects just under 3-1 odds by the 1/ST INDEX. He would be a solid play at the 4-1 morning line. #6 Extra Hope is an underlay at 5-2 odds in the morning line, given about a 5-1 chance by the algorithm.

Race 9 (9:06PM ET) // G1 Del Mar Oaks // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) 

#10 Laura’s Light (24%W // 44%P // 59%S) 3-1 ML
#4 Warren’s Showtime (17%W // 35%P // 52%S) 6-1 ML
#11 Guitty (11%W // 22%P // 34%S) 8-1 ML
#1 Carpe Vinum (10%W // 15%P // 21%S) 15-1 ML

Notable: The French imports #3 Miss Extra and #8 Neige Blanche don’t compute as well as the American runners due to some blind spots in the algorithm (speed, pace figures etc. not available for European races). Both would appear to be contenders along with the logical American favorite #10 Laura’s Light, priced right around 3-1 odds.

Race 10 (9:36PM ET) // G1 Pacific Classic // 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)

#5 Maximum Security (34%W // 62%P // 71%S) 1-1 ML
#2 Higher Power (22%W // 44%P // 69%S) 3-1 ML
#1 Midcourt (17%W // 32%P // 41%S) 7-2 ML
#4 Dark Vader (15%W // 32%P // 55%S) 12-1 ML

Notable: #5 Maximum Security is a solid favorite by 12 percentage points in the 1/ST INDEX, but computes closer to a 9-5 favorite by the algorithm. None of the top 3 choices appear to offer any overlay value based on the morning line, though one of them likely wins. This could be a good race to look at a daily double for value, pairing the winner of Race 10 and Race 11 for that reason.

Race 11 (10:04PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) 

#12 Kneedeepinsnow (18%W // 26%P // 39%S) 12-1 ML
#3 Ostini (17%W // 31%P // 50%S) 15-1 ML
#10 Desmond Doss (14%W // 25%P // 32%S) 8-1 ML
#4 Shadow Sphinx (12%W // 29%P // 39%S) 7-2 ML

Notable: Easily the closest race on the card by the numbers, the top choice is only a single-point best and the top-4 all are within 6 points. Top choice #12 Kneedeepinsnow would be a solid overlay price at the 12-1 morning line, computing in the 1/ST INDEX to around a 9-2 or 5-1 chance. #3 Ostini also could offer overlay value with a similar 5-1 chance by the algorithm and a 15-1 morning line projection.