Churchill Downs’ 13-race Kentucky Oaks Day card on Friday provides a major lead-in to Saturday’s “Run for the Roses.” Six consecutive stakes races complete the card, beginning in Race 8. You can bet the entire Kentucky Oaks Day program with the 1/ST BET app and at Xpressbet.com.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Kentucky Oaks Day card.

Race 1 (11:00AM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1A – MOVIE MOXY (32% W // 58% P // 62% S)
9 – WHISPERING PINES (13% W // 21% P // 31% S)
5 – FINANCIAL ONE (13% W // 21% P // 31% S)
7 – NORMA JEAN B. (12% W // 18% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Financial One, a half-sister to $2.7 million earner Close Hatches, and Whispering Pines, out of 2-year-old stakes winner Walkswithapurpose, are both live first-time starters. Movie Moxie’s 19-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX is most in any race today, but the debut runners are under-accounted by the algorithms.

Race 2 (11:30AM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

7 – QUICK MUNNY (29% W // 46% P // 56% S)
2 – MALIBU BIRD (15% W // 26% P // 40% S)
4 – LADY TRAVELER (11% W // 19% P // 26% S)
10 – AUNT JOIE (11% W // 26% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Dozen juveniles have just 3 starts between them, so the numbers have to be kept in check. Quick Munny and Malibu Bird ran well enough in their only tries to warrant long looks. Sianara’s dam Just Louise started 2-for-2 at Churchill and won Debutante Stakes in second start as 2-year-old. Her trainer Steve Asmussen won 9 of the 21 juvenile races here during spring/summer meet. Rookie Super Sport is by redhot juvenile sire Not This Time (30% winners so far this year).

Race 3 (12:00PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

5 – BEAUTIFUL TRAUMA (26% W // 48% P // 64% S)
4 – POSITIVE SPIRIT (25% W // 44% P // 63% S)
2 – JEWELED PRINCESS (18% W // 36% P // 53% S)
6 – RESURRECTION ROAD (12% W // 26% P // 35% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Beautiful Trauma won her last by 16 lengths on a wet track, but it was in December. She’s training fast for the return. Positive Spirit was well-beaten in her only start of 2020, but is a former Grade 2 stakes winner. Jeweled Princess runs her best on wet tracks. No real consensus here, as the numbers bear out.

Race 4 (12:35PM ET) // Allowance // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

6 – OCEAN BREEZE (31% W // 46% P // 60% S)
3 – MISS T TOO (15% W // 32% P // 47% S)
2 – MISTY BLUE (11% W // 25% P // 39% S)
1 – SHE CAN’T SING (11% W // 27% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Ocean Breeze is highly regarded and ran her career-best over the Churchill track this summer. Her 16-point spread to Miss T Too looks like a legitimate place to single in multi-race wagers. Palamito is a 4-year-old of some repute against 3-year-olds and can be the threat to the favorite.

Race 5 (1:10PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

6 – PRINCESS LEA (29% W // 43% P // 54% S)
11 – HONORIFIQUE (14% W // 25% P // 38% S)
2 – GOOD WITH NUMBERS (11% W // 18% P // 25% S)
7 – MEJTHAAM (11% W // 25% P // 37% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Another full field of 2-year-olds with only 5 starts among the dozen entrants. Those who have raced underwhelm this eye. Travel Column is an $850,000 purchase who is half-brother to $2.2 million earner Neolithic, though trainer Brad Cox underperformed the past month with first-timers at Ellis Park. Peace Broker intrigues as a half-sister to Kentucky Oaks starter and Grade 1 winner Donna Veloce, who was awesome out of the box at age 2. Good With Numbers represents the aforementioned Steve Asmussen barn that dominated the summer juvenile races here. Longshot rookie Three Tipsy Chix (20-1 ML) is out of Grade 1-winning millionaire On Fire Baby, who was a debut winner in her own right.

Race 6 (1:45PM ET) // Allowance // 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

5 – HONEST MISCHIEF (29% W // 48% P // 61% S)
2 – MOJO MAN (15% W // 30% P // 43% S)
8 – STRIKE THAT (15% W // 30% P // 43% S)
7 – LASTING LEGACY (12% W // 30% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Graded stakes-quality allowance sees Honest Mischief a big, 14-point play over a tough field. He’s dynamite when his best. Strike That has an apparent pace edge in a race lacking much early speed.

Race 7 (2:20PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

6 – FLABBERGASTED (17% W // 35% P // 42% S)
9 – ELLA BRILLA (14% W // 22% P // 46% S)
2 – URBAN FAIRYTALE (11% W // 22% P // 31% S)
14 – LADY OXBOW *AE* (12% W // 19% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: One of the most competitive races by the numbers on the card, Flabbergasted is one of 4 last-out maiden breakers taking on winners this time. The slow early projected pace does favor Flabbergasted as well as Sense You Left, who will be a much bigger price. French Group 3-placed Sicilia chased a very fast pace at Del Mar in her US debut and should be more at home against this softer pace.

Race 8 (3:05PM ET) // G2 Eight Belles S. // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1 – MUNDAYE CALL (30% W // 45% P // 60% S)
7 – FOUR GRACES (19% W // 35% P // 43% S)
4 – PURRFECTLY CLAIRE (15% W // 29% P // 54% S)
2 – NEVER FORGET (11% W // 25% P // 36% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Mundaye Call dazzled at Ellis Park against easier last time and gets the class test against Four Graces, a proven stakes commodity. These two should control the pace throughout in a great matchup. The 1/ST INDEX doesn’t think it will be much of a showdown, heavily leaning to Mundaye Call.

Race 9 (3:40PM ET) // G2 Edgewood S. // 1 Mile (Turf)

3 – SHARING (29% W // 46% P // 62% S)
2 – HENDY WOODS (17% W // 34% P // 54% S)
5 – OUTBURST (GB) (15% W // 25% P // 43% S)
4 – LUCKY BETTY (11% W // 25% P // 35% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner and local course stakes winner Sharing is a 12-point pick. She returns from a Royal Ascot jaunt, but gives significant weight to her rivals. She’s 6-5 in the morning line, but the suspicion here is she may be vulnerable, and I won’t be singling in the multi-race wagers.

Race 10 (4:15PM ET) // G2 Alysheba S. // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

2 – MCKINZIE (26% W // 45% P // 66% S)
6 – BY MY STANDARDS (20% W // 39% P // 52% S)
1 – SILVER DUST (13% W // 30% P // 47% S)
3 – OWENDALE (13% W // 30% P // 43% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Hard to look past the 1/ST INDEX top duo of McKinzie and By My Standards. There’s not much of any early pace, which could give McKinzie a pace edge. He wired this race at 3-5 last year. By My Standards has held strong form all year vs. top-class foes. Both are working bullets. Silver Dust at 15-1 in the morning line could be the value play if trying to separate the favorites in the exacta.

Race 11 (4:50PM ET) // G1 La Troienne S. // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

8 – MONOMOY GIRL (31% W // 55% P // 70% S)
2 – VEXATIOUS (25% W // 41% P // 55% S)
1 – HOROLOGIST (10% W // 25% P // 44% S)
6 – SHE’S A JULIE (10% W // 16% P // 31% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Another either-or kind of race by the numbers and to this eye as champion Monomoy Girl re-matches with Vexatious in a replay of July’s Ruffian at Belmont. Vexatious beat star Midnight Bisou most recently, so she’s absolutely on her game. Monomoy Girl is 4-5 on the morning line, and Vexatious 4-1; the though here is they’re closer than that, but Monomoy Girl prevails.

Race 12 (5:45PM ET) // G1 Kentucky Oaks // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

5 – GAMINE (32% W // 46% P // 55% S)
1 – SWISS SKYDIVER (21% W // 42% P // 60% S)
3 – DONNA VELOCE (12% W // 34% P // 40% S)
4 – SPEECH (10% W // 24% P // 44% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The Oaks showdown between Swiss Skydiver and Gamine has been anticipated for weeks, but the algorithms aren’t buying the hype. It’s Gamine by an 11-point margin, and 20 points higher than anyone else in the lineup. The equalizer could be the 1-1/8 miles distance, which is a new hurdle for the favorite, but a been-there/done-that for Swiss Skydiver. I can’t see anyone else winning, but multi-race bettors might want to make a stand on one or the other, providing a chance to double the ticket weight for the same cost by doing so.

Race 13 (6:20PM ET) // G2 Turf Sprint S. // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

1 – DIAMOND OOPS (25% W // 36% P // 50% S)
4 – BOUND FOR NOWHERE (15% W // 29% P // 38% S)
2 – WELLABLED (14% W // 25% P // 35% S)
5 – EXTRAVAGANT KID (8% W // 20% P // 27% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Diamond Oops is a surprisingly dominant points-pick by the 1/ST INDEX in a race that looks more competitive on paper – especially in a turf sprint. I like him at the 8-1 morning line price, but it will be interesting to see the off odds. Extravagant Kid has been strong on the local turf and has a more favorable post draw than some of the other leading contenders. Wellabled is as fleet as they come in America for the opening half-mile.