Churchill Downs’ 14-race Kentucky Derby Day card provides its annual place among horseplaying households and the general public at-large. You can bet the entire Kentucky Derby Day program with the 1/ST BET app and at Xpressbet.com.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Kentucky Derby Day card.

Race 1 (11:00AM ET) // Allowance // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

5 – HOG CREEK HUSTLE (30% W // 53% P // 77% S)
1 – HOME BASE (25% W // 48% P // 67% S)
3 – BOURBON RESOLUTION (18% W // 40% P // 58% S)
2 – SEVEN TRUMPET (16% W // 34% P // 60% S)

Jeremy’s Take: #1 Home Base has a real chance to win this race wire-to-wire from the rail with a serious pace advantage. #5 Hog Creek Hustle has faced outstanding competition, but has been a long time between victories.

Race 2 (11:30AM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

1 – THRILL RIDE (31% W // 50% P // 70% S)
3 – QUALITY WARRIOR (14% W // 38% P // 55% S)
7 – KADRI (14% W // 29% P // 46% S)
4 – PROUD VETERAN (13% W // 24% P // 37% S)

Jeremy’s Take: #1 Thrill Ride’s 17-point spread is second-largest on the card. First-time starter #5 Idol is under-valued by the algorithm because of lack of data, but will be a serious contender in this race.

Race 3 (12:00PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 1 Mile (Dirt)

4 – ONE NATION (35% W // 47% P // 59% S)
6 – PIT BOSS (13% W // 30% P // 43% S)
9 – SPEIGHTSTOWN AGAIN (11% W // 42% P // 66% S)
1 – STORM KING (11% W // 28% P // 47% S)

Jeremy’s Take: #4 One Nation has the largest margin, 22 points, of any top contender today. And he’s 5-1 on the morning line and doesn’t figure to be hammered by the bettors. His late-running sprint style should adapt well to the 1-turn mile. This could be a spot to single in multi-race bets even if not at low odds.

Race 4 (12:35PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

12 – KING’S MISCHIEF (29% W // 43% P // 54% S)
11 – RYE SENSE OF HUMOR (14% W // 25% P // 38% S)
8 – T MONEY (11% W // 25% P // 37% S)
1 – BIG LAKE (11% W // 18% P // 25% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Again a race with many first-time starters that land in a data blind spot for the 1/ST INDEX, so keep an eye on how the public bets this race. #12 King’s Mischief is the clear choice of those who have raced. #1 Big Lake is a debut runner by Derby and Triple Crown champ American Pharoah for a Steve Asmussen barn that has dominated the 2-year-old races this year at Churchill Downs.

Race 5 (1:10PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

10 – PARKLAND (16% W // 29% P // 47% S)
4 – TRIDENT HIT (16% W // 27% P // 37% S)
8 – ON A SPREE (14% W // 25% P // 37% S)
5 – SPANISH KINGDOM (10% W // 19% P // 26% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The most contentious race of the day, according to the 1/ST INDEX, has several quality options. #10 Parkland is the only of the leading trio of have raced on the Churchill turf previously, and it was a good second, which might be the separator. #5 Spanish Kingdom is the 3-1 morning line favorite, which means there could be decent value at the top here.

Race 6 (1:45PM ET) // Allowance // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

11 – COWBOY DIPLOMACY (25% W // 37% P // 49% S)
6 – COOL BOBBY (13% W // 29% P // 41% S)
7 – STREET CLASS (12% W // 25% P // 32% S)
12 – ALEX JOON (9% W // 18% P // 28% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Cowboy Diplomacy came back from a year-plus layoff and steamrolled maidens at Ellis Park. The Brad Cox trainee is a 12-point pick in the 1/ST INDEX, but this race looks a bit trickier than that. #5 Wild Popit is inconsistent, but his best can be a factor and he’s 10-1 ML.

Race 7 (2:20PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

9 – AURELIUS MAXIMUS (28% W // 51% P // 56% S)
1 – AWARD WINNER (22% W // 34% P // 49% S)
12 – LOCALLY OWNED (12% W // 19% P // 25% S)
6 – SAGAPONACK (8% W // 15% P // 25% S)

Jeremy’s Take: #1 Award Winner at 15-1 morning would be excellent value based on the computer numbers. He’s done most of his work on turf, but his dirt form and inside post position are attractive enough at those odds. The other speed in this race early on is drawn wider and the short run to the first turn may be a rodeo for them.

Race 8 (2:55PM ET) // G2 American Turf S. // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

5 – SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT (26% W // 48% P // 60% S)
4 – FIELD PASS (22% W // 39% P // 55% S)
8 – FANCY LIQUOR (20% W // 36% P // 50% S)
1 – TAISHAN (8% W // 19% P // 33% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The top three morning line choices are far and away the 1/ST INDEX consensus with more than 68% between them. #4 Field Pass might have the tactical edge rallying late in a race that will be heated early among several front-running types.

Race 9 (3:35PM ET) // G2 Pat Day Mile S. // 1 Mile (Dirt)

2 – ECHO TOWN (27% W // 48% P // 57% S)
9 – RUSHIE (15% W // 34% P // 53% S)
1 – CEZANNE (15% W // 27% P // 45% S)
6 – TAP IT TO WIN (13% W // 25% P // 40% S)

Jeremy’s Take: In a race that looks way more competitive on paper that the algorithms suggest, #2 Echo Town is a solid 12-point pick. He is a capable sprint finisher who should fare well over the 1-turn mile and 7-2 in the morning line doesn’t strike me as wildly under-laid. Speedballs #7 No Parole and #4 Vertical Threat are threats to speed away if the other doesn’t fire. #5 Digital may finish best over the distance.

Race 10 (4:07PM ET) // G3 Iroquois S. // 1 Mile (Dirt)

10 – THERIDEOFALIFETIME (24% W // 45% P // 56% S)
6 – BELAFONTE (16% W // 26% P // 36% S)
3 – SUPER STOCK (11% W // 22% P // 30% S)
4 – ULTIMATE BADGER (11% W // 19% P // 32% S)

Jeremy’s Take: A bit surprising that 7-5 morning line favorite #10 Therideofalifetime was only an 8-point spread in this one. The only horse to beat him in 3 starts has been Jackie’s Warrior, the most impressive 2-year-old in America so far this year. #6 Bellafonte is 20-1 morning line and great value via the 1/ST INDEX. He hails from no-name connections, and on a big race day, those kind often are overlooked on the tote.

Race 11 (4:39PM ET) // G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. // 1 Mile (Turf)

4 – NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (IRE) (29% W // 46% P // 62% S)
3 – JULIET FOXTROT (GB) (16% W // 34% P // 54% S)
1 – SHE’SONTHEWARPATH (15% W // 25% P // 43% S)
6 – BEAU RECALL (IRE) (11% W // 25% P // 35% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Front-running #4 Newspaperofrecord has been machine-like when on her game and no doubt the one to beat as a 13-point pick. She’s 4-5 in the morning line and looks it, though #5 Harmless could pressure her throughout the running and make things tougher.

Race 12 (5:17PM ET) // G1 Derby City Distaff S. // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

8 – SERENGETI EMPRESS (28% W // 46% P // 58% S)
4 – BELL’S THE ONE (13% W // 27% P // 37% S)
1 – MIA MISCHIEF (11% W // 19% P // 31% S)
6 – SALLY’S CURLIN (9% W // 24% P // 37% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner #8 Serengeti Empress obviously loves the track and she caught some pace break when the connections of Lady Kate opted to run Friday and scratch from this race. #1 Mia Mischief might be the only one who can run with her early, and I don’t see it. The 15-point spread here looks legit if the top pick runs her race.

Race 13 (5:50PM ET) // G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S. // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

4 – DIGITAL AGE (23% W // 44% P // 58% S)
2 – BOWIES HERO (20% W // 36% P // 57% S)
8 – SACRED LIFE (FR) (10% W // 25% P // 33% S)
5 – DONTBLAMEROCKET (10% W // 17% P // 22% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Two-horse race based on the 1/ST INDEX between #4 Digital Age and #2 Bowies Hero, the latter the only Grade 1 winner in the field. I’m on Bowies Hero and #8 Sacred Life in the 1/ST Race of the Week analysis, and will be boxing that pair in exactas. #1 Factor This looks vulnerable at 3-1 in the morning line to this eye and the computer.

Race 14 (7:01PM ET) // G1 Kentucky Derby // 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)

17 – TIZ THE LAW (28% W // 36% P // 42% S)
18 – AUTHENTIC (12% W // 26% P // 39% S)
15 – NY TRAFFIC (12% W // 24% P // 40% S)
16 – HONOR A. P. (9% W // 21% P // 32% S)
7 – MONEY MOVES (5% W // 11% P // 15% S)
2 – MAX PLAYER (5% W // 6% P // 7% S)
8 – SOUTH BEND (4% W // 16% P // 32% S)
10 – THOUSAND WORDS (2% W // 6% P // 18% S)
1 – FINNICK THE FIERCE (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
3 – ENFORCEABLE (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
4 – STORM THE COURT (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
5 – MAJOR FED (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
9 – MR. BIG NEWS (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
11 – NECKER ISLAND (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
12 – SOLE VOLANTE (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
13 – ATTACHMENT RATE (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)
14 – WINNING IMPRESSION (2% W // 5% P // 7% S)

Jeremy’s Take: #17 Tiz the Law will be a far shorter price than the percentages project, and deservedly so to this eye. The algorithm short-changes #16 Honor A.P. as fourth choice. Some of the recent pace defections should help #15 Ny Traffic’s style near the front, so he could be the value play based on the 1/ST INDEX. Exotics players for trifectas and superfectas note #8 South Bend rates high marks to finish in the money, but not to win. The algorithm was dismissive of my longshot player #3 Enforceable.