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Monday, September 07: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

September 7, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is carded for hurdlers. We will pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Fort Worth

Forecast: Fort Worth returned off a 16 week vacation to register a smart first-level state-bred allowance win here last month and should be capable of repeating on the one-level raise with an anticipated forward move. The City Zip colt has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong trip, shows a strong, healthy work tab since raced, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and seems certain to go lower than his original morning line of 8/5. He’s a logical short-price rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 12:33 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Editor At Large; 5-Ready Seeker; 9-Domain Expertise

Forecast: This maiden two-turn juvenile grass affair for fillies has the makings of a pretty nice race, with at least three well-regarded newcomers among the nine entrants. Editor At Large, an Irish-bred filly by the top sire Lope de Vega, has done everything in the morning like a top turf prospect for C. Brown and appears fit and ready for a big try first time out. There aren’t any fancy workout times that jump off the page but she’s a smooth mover that does things effortlessly. Brown has another starter, Domain Expertise, that also has been fairly impressive in the a.m. trials. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy, a $200,000 weanling purchase, is a half-sister to the 2-year-old Saratoga stakes winner of a couple of years back, Sombeyay, and shows a work tab that should have her fit enough, though her outside draw is a bit problematic. Ready Seeker has been burning up the Belmont Park training track for T. Pletcher, and as a daughter of More Than Ready can be expected to relish the lawn, though all of her preparation has been accomplished on dirt. A bullet :47 1/5 breezing gate drill (fastest of 28) just six days ago should have her right on edge. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Editor At Large on top.

RACE 4: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Road to Meath

Forecast: Road to Meath is listed at 4/5 on the morning line and looks like it on paper, but there are concerns. Despite a recent series of solid races, the C. Brown-trained gelding clearly is for sale, having dropped from first-level allowance, to restricted (nw-2) $40,000, and now all the way down to the $16,000 level. If he has one good one left, the Quality Road gelding surely can beat this field, but when you’re taking a short price you really don’t want to deal with that kind of uncertainty. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet, just pass the race.

RACE 5: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Per Capita

Forecast: Per Capita earned his diploma during the spring meeting at Churchill Downs in good style while earning a powerful speed figure, one that if repeated today will make him very hard to beat in this entry-level allowance affair. While today’s nine furlong trip might be something of a concern, the son of Tapit has trained in sharp style in recent weeks for new trainer T. Pletcher and projects to be on the lead or in a comfortable outside stalking position throughout. There’s probably not much value to be found at 7/5 on the morning line but you can use him a short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2b-Wegotoldyougotsold; 8-Aristocratic

Forecast: Wegotoldyougotsold, claimed back by Rudy for $32,000 in May, makes it back to the races while dropping to the $25,000 level, not normally a good sign but an acceptable pattern from this stable. First or second in nine of 14 career starts, the genuine and consistent son of The Factor should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position outside and have his chance when the pressure is turned on. He’s run well off layoffs in the past and the local work tab is healthy. Aristocratic, another with the first-off-the-claim angle, returns for the price he was taken for and will bust out and try his usual gate-to-wire tactics. The veteran Malibu Moon gelding has been first or second in 14 of 36 starts, so we’ll include him as well in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-Julie Bird; 9-Army Wife

Forecast: Julie Bird has trained like a very promising sort for C. Brown and looks fit and ready for a major effort first time out in this two-turn maiden turf affair for juvenile fillies. The Irish-bred daughter of Lope de Vega, a $225,000 Tattersalls October yearling purchase, appears to be a quick type, so it will be interesting to see if she’s allowed to show speed or be taken back behind cover and then asked to produce a late run. Army Wife has the benefit of a sprint prep over this course last month and should move forward after finishing evenly to be the fourth while giving indication that added distance won’t be an issue. The daughter of Declaration of War shows a bullet :45 3/5 half mile main track breeze (fastest of 30) last week, so she clearly is stepping forward for a barn that has strong stats with second-time starters. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Julie Bird.

RACE 8: Post 3:08 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Devamani; 5-Breaking the Rules; 6-Olympico

Forecast: This is a contentious middle distance stakes for older turf runners and offers a few possibilities. We’ll pass the race other than to go three-deep in our rolling exotics. Olympico exits a series of tougher graded added money events and will appreciate this drop into listed company. It’ll be interesting to see what affect if any the addition of blinkers will have on his style and whether he’ll lay closer to the pace than he normally does. This will be his second start off a layoff – his recent fifth place finish in the Bernard Baruch H.-G was respectable – so we’ll give him the edge on top. His C. Brown uncoupled stable mate Devamani missed as the favorite when third in a strong allowance race here in late July but is another adding blinkers for the first time while landing the rail. We’re thinking he might draft into a favorable second flight, ground-saving position and then have his chance from there. Breaking the Rules comes off a nice score in the same race Devamani just finished third in while earning a career top triple-digit Beyer speed figure. This is a tougher group, but in his present form the son of War Front is a solid contender.

RACE 9: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Speaker’s Corner; 9-Savoy

Forecast: There are at least two exceptional prospects in this hot maiden sprint for juveniles (maybe three if we include Ten for Ten, a down-the-road sort), with top billing and certain favoritism going to the much-whispered-about Speaker’s Corner. The debuting son of Street Sense has trained like a rocket ship for W. Mott and will take an immense amount of beating if he performs in the afternoon like he has in his a.m. drills. In a :59 4/5 gate work August 24 he left barn mate Jane Grey far behind, and that filly won her debut yesterday vs. maiden special weight company. Then, last Monday, ‘Corner breezed a half in :46 flat under wraps, a bullet drill that was fastest of 109 for the distance. Savoy is a son of Honor Code making his first start for C. Brown, and while he hasn’t been quite as flashy in the morning as Speakers’ Corner, he’s looked outstanding as well through a series of smart drills without being asked for anything close to his best. He could be a very good one, but we suspect it will take better than just good to cope with the favorite.

RACE 10: Post 4:15 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Ima Pharoah

Forecast: Ima Pharoah is a progressive son of American Pharoah fresh from a clever maiden win five weeks ago with a career top speed figure and may be capable of winning right back on the raise despite shortening to six furlongs and drawing the rail. The T. Pletcher-trained colt has a good stalking style, a healthy work pattern, and, with the scratching of the original 8/5 morning line favorite Binkster seems the solid pick in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

RACE 11: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Mystery Bank; 6-Mr. Kringle; 7-Hardredcandy

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this starter’s allowance middle distance turf affair but not with any great degree of confidence. The best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. Mystery Bank comes off a nice maiden score but it was mini-marathon affair and we’re not quite sure how it translates to this short trip. From the red-hot O. Noda barn, the Florida-bred colt draws the good rail and should enjoy a ground-saving trip while prominent throughout. On pure numbers, he’s the one to beat. Mr. Kringle, third in a similar affair in mid-July over this course and distance, has been kept on edge with a healthy series of workouts in the interim and though beaten as the odds-on favorite last time out does exit a productive race. He’ll have his best chance from a second flight, stalking position. Hardredcandy, nosed out in a $40,000 claimer at Monmouth Park in late July, earned a speed figure that makes him a fit in this league and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. He may be most dangerous as the controlling speed and in a field that doesn’t have much early zip it wouldn’t be surprising to see front-running tactics employed.

RACE 12: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Lonesome Fugitive; 8-Succeedandsurpass

Forecast: Del Mar shipper Succeedandsurpass joins the G. Motion barn and arrives in good form following a sharp runner-up effort in what was a strong race for the level. He’ll race without the blinkers that he wore for the first time in that race, picks up J. Ortiz, and with a decent pace and good racing luck seems capable of producing the last run. Lonesome Fugitive fell far back and then had too much ground to make up when a rallying second in a similar first-level allowance middle distance turf event in late July. With the addition of blinkers, he may display a bit more tactical speed. The lightly-raced Irish-bred colt has solid speed figures for the level, continues to train well, and at 2-1 on the morning line is the one to fear most.

RACE 13: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Reinvestment Risk; 6-Jackie’s Warrior

Forecast: Reinvestment Risk could not have been more impressive winning his debut by more than seven lengths in a fast, highly-rated race here last month, doing so like a colt that will easily handle today’s extra furlong. The C. Brown-trained colt is listed as the 8/5 second choice but is faster on numbers than his chief rival Jackie’s Warrior, so we’ll put him slightly on top in this year’s edition of the Hopeful S.-G1. Jackie’s Warrior is undefeated in two starts, winning his maiden at Churchill Downs and then capturing the Saratoga Special-G2 last month. Both were visually very impressive performances, but if there’s a concern it’s that he beat Therideofalifetime in both races and that colt was off the board in yesterday’s Iroquois Stakes in Kentucky. Let’s go with Reinvestment Risk on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 14: Post 6:21 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Vicarage; 9-Mohjestic

Forecast: Maiden $40,000 claimers meet two-turning on turf in the season finale. It’s a grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise; we’ll double the race but those with bigger bankrolls can use as many as they feel necessary. Vicarage shows the first-time-for-a-tag angle and goes for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team, so we’re expecting a much improved performance from the son of Medaglia d’Oro. A repeat of his race-before-last, a runner-up try at Tampa Bay Downs, charts very well in this moderate spot. Mohjestic, off the track since finishing a reasonable fourth in his debut 18 months ago, shows up as a first-time gelding for G. Weaver (fair stats with comebackers) and the once-promising son of Uncle Mo is a strong contender based purely on speed figures under the assumption that he returns as well as he left.