Log In

Sunday, September 20: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

September 20, 2020

Hawthorne Racecourse concludes the 2020 harness racing season with a 15-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 12. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus. The Race 15, Jackpot High 5 has a $44,820 carryover and there will be a mandatory payout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12

7-Velocity McSweets (7-1)-Beat #10 on 8/9 in a condition race when that mare had the 10-hole and she finished 2nd. If Husted can work the same type of trip and be within 3 lengths or so at the top of the lane the same finish can happen.
10-Tempus Seelster (4-1)-This is the only true Open horse in the race and has multiple wins at this level including the last 2. Seekman has been steering well and knows when to push the button on this mare. Pace should be honest, so the 3rd straight win at this level could happen.

Race 13

7-JK Newera (7/2)-Still trying to break her maiden but has hit the board in all 3 starts here. Couldn't close fast enough in last but did pace the 2nd half in 57.1 and should be in the mix at the wire versus this crew.
9-Pretty Boy Shooter (7-1)-Leonard was trying to roll off cover in last but the opening half went in only .59. This time the pace should be quicker and that should help in passing foes down the lane.
10-Pro Time (5-1)-Two-year-old gelding makes 4th start and has a win and 2-second place finishes. Left from the 7-hole last week and it was the 1st time Bates gunned for the top but ended up fading down the lane. Could leave again, find a good seat and brush by down the lane.

Race 14

2-Girls Girls Girls (25-1)-Stayed inside last week and the pace collapsed in the lane and was behind a wall of horses. Might get sucked around and if shakes lose late could roll by at a price. Smolin's choice over #1.
6-Model (9/5)-Drops to a soft spot but that doesn't guarantee anything when 1-23 on the year. Barn has been going well but Seekman needs to work a good trip. Will respect and look to shoot against for some juice in the Pick 4 payout.
8-Unbroken Circle (8-1)-Leonard trainee won in a drop and pop situation with a good steer by Husted. Steps-up but this isn't a group of All-Stars. Best to respect at a square price because the same script could be followed tonight.
10-Sweetshadyshark (12-1)-This mare is far from perfect and Wilfong will need to figure out a way to put her in play without draining her tank. Was used hard to get the top last week, so maybe will duck and rally late. At the program odds or higher the risk reward is fair.

Race 15

1-Stella Kemp (7-1)-Stella is only 1-20 and has had a breaking issue but her last race was the best since 7/18. Recorded a win in that start and left from the rail. Should be worth a swing and may offer a square price.
5-Big Man Forever (5-1)-Raced well at this level last week and was used a couple of times. Now gets some post relief and could be sitting on a big try.
7-Captainblacksparrow (4-1)-Camera shy 4-year-old did come up with a strong effort to take a picture at this class last time. Rogers should be able to leave to get a good seat again, and then could brush by for another win.

My Ticket

Race 12) 7,10

Race 13) 7,9,10

Race 14) 2,6,8,10

Race 15) 1,5,7

Total Ticket Cost) $36 for $0.50

Check me out on Twitter!