Log In

Sunday, October 04: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 4, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Jamming Eddy; 9-Torosay

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a better-than par turf dash for first-level allowance runners. Jamming Eddy is winless in seven lifetime outings over the local lawn but each of those races were at a mile or farther. Based on his most recent outing – a sharp state-bred sprinting win on grass at Del Mar – the son of Square Eddie clearly is most effective around one turn. Though he’s tackling open company today, the P. Miller-trained gelding has speed figures that should allow him to win right back, and with F. Prat staying aboard he’ll offer good wagering value at 3-1 on the morning line. Torosay, an excellent third in the Green Flash S.-G3 down south last time out, tackles an easier group today and should be on or near the lead from his outside draw. The Goldencents gelding broke his maiden over this course and distance last November and has consistently hit the board at this level in recent starts. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Jamming Eddy on top.

RACE 2: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Foxborough; 3-Freerunning

Forecast: Freerunning and Foxborough, two-three finishers in a maiden $32,000 sprint at Del Mar in late August, hook up again, this time around two-turns in a main track miler. Freerunning is the quicker of two and seems likely to be the controlling speed, and while his pedigree doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be comfortable at the trip the son of Cinco Charlie should have every chance to gain control through soft splits and then hang on. Foxborough seems the more likely of the two to handle the extra ground based on running style and pedigree. However, he’s already had five starts and may have less improvement in him than Freerunning, who’s had just three. Either one can win – we’ll slightly prefer the quicker Freerunning on top – and we’ll include both in our rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post: 1:40 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Clubhouse Saint; 3-Big Moon; 5-Take Her Temp

Forecast: Big Moon probably is shorter on the morning line (8/5) than she deserves to be but the daughter of Mr. Big, slow on speed figures but apparently improving with experience, has so little to beat in this maiden $32,000 main track miler for juvenile fillies that she’s likely to be the public choice by default. She switches to F. Prat, is comfortably drawn, and should have every chance from a good second flight, stalking position. Clubhouse Saint finished third in her debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes but was never really in the race, clunking home third when beaten more than 11 lengths. The drop in class, the stretch out in trip, and the good rail draw should contribute to an improved performance, so in a modest affair you have to use her. Take Her Temp has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern we like but loses F. Prat, though underrated R. Gonzalez is more than capable if this daughter of Uncaptured is up to the task. Her closing though distant second place finish in her debut charts well with these but her most recent outing – sixth as the 6/5 favorite – doesn’t. In a weak affair, we’ll toss her in.

RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Ebeko; 6-Big Fish

Forecast: Big Fish and Ebeko, one-two finishers in the highly-productive Del Mar Juvenile Turf last month, meet again under similar conditions in this year’s edition of the Zuma Beach S. and were expecting both to separate themselves from the pack. Big Fish, already a two-time grass winner with speed figures that have risen in each of his four career starts, was convincing in victory last time out in a race that produced the one-two finishers (Get Her Number, Rombauer) in the subsequent American Pharoah S.-G1). Like Big Fish, Ebeko finished with purpose but was far back early and then ran out of room in a promising U. S. debut. We’ll once again give Big Fish the edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post: 2:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Nolo Contesto; 5-Strongconstitution

Forecast: Nolo Contesto (7/5) and Strongconstitution (2-1) are the first two favorites on the morning line in this first-level allowance main track miler and we’ll be surprised if the race doesn’t fall to one or the other. Second and third, respectively, when they clashed under similar conditions at Del Mar last month, they’re solid in the speed figure department and coming up to this race with healthy patterns, so they’re hard to separate. Nolo Contesto is re-equipped with blinkers, switches to F. Prat, and has won over this track in past (beating Omaha Beach, no less) while Strongconstitution, a 3-year-old tackling older, has had just five career outings and probably has more upside than his chief rival. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in your rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mount Pelliar; 5-Petruchio

Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a below average maiden-special-weight miler on grass for juveniles. Petruchio is a first-time gelding adding blinkers so there are at least a couple of reasons to believe he’ll step forward after two fairly decent third place educational runs sprinting on dirt at Del Mar. With F. Prat staying aboard for a barn that has solid stats with the stretch-out angle, the son of Into Mischief appears the one to beat, though based strictly on pedigree he’s no slam dunk to relish two-turns and turf (we just hope he will). Mount Pelliar came against slow fractions to finish a respectable fourth going long on the lawn in his debut at Del Mar and may be a bit more dependable than our top pick. The son of Declaration of War retains R. Gonzalez and will be doing his best work from the quarter pole home.

RACE 7: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Canadian Pride; 8-Mickelson

Forecast: Mickelson was making just his second career start (and his first in 15 months) when he finished a strong runner-up in a fast, highly-rated maiden special weight sprint at Del Mar four weeks ago and today gets an extra half-furlong to work with from a cozy outside draw. The B. Baffert-trained colt switches to A. Cedillo and should be able to settle in the second flight and then launch his bid when called upon. Canadian Pride earned a competitive figure in his first outing since February when a solid runner-up vs. maidens at this extended sprint trip at Del Mar in mid-August. The Creative Cause gelding shows a bullet five furlong drill (5f, :59 1/5, fastest of 61) nine days ago and appears primed and ready for a career top effort. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic with a very slight edge on top to Mickelson.

RACE 8: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Consternation; 6-Madone

Forecast: Madone is unbeaten in two starts and her modest speed figures don’t do her justice. After a clever maiden win, the daughter of Vancouver was stuck in severe traffic much of the way before finding room late and accelerating impressively to capture the Juvenile Fillies Turf S. at Del Mar. A similar type of performance today will make her hard to beat once again. Consternation, runner-up in her debut in Ireland in late June, arrived in Southern California fit and ready and was a visually pleasing winner in her local bow at a mile on grass last month, displaying a good turn of foot at the head of the lane and then drawing clear with complete authority. Clearly, she’s the one Madone has to worry about the most. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Crossword

Forecast: Crossword, a $100,000 Timonium 2-year-old in training purchase last May, was quite impressive in the preview session, breezing a furlong in a sharp :10 1/5 while displaying quick action and a smooth, economical, athletic stride. He’s been training quite well at Los Alamitos for J. Sadler and should be plenty fit and ready to win at first asking in this abbreviated dash for a barn that has excellent stats with debut runners. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:10 PT Grade: B-

Use: 5-Lucas McCain; 6-I’m a Cool Dude; 7-Bradley’s Cowboy

Forecast: Although he exits a maiden $25,000 sprint and is facing (theoretically) tougher straight maiden types today, I’m a Cool Dude has the benefit of a good race over the track and seems likely to improve for a barn that has strong stats with this angle. The addition of blinkers shouldn’t hurt, so after finishing strongly but too late when earning a nice speed figure last month the son of Boat Trip gets top billing in an open race that also includes a pair of intriguing first-time starters. Lucas McCain shows a bullet :58 3/5 gate drill (fastest of 25) a couple of weeks ago before shipping up from Los Alamitos and must be considered a major player for the high percentage S. Miyadi outfit. Bradley’s Cowboy, from the J. Wong barn, tuned up with a sharp gate drill of his own (:48 flat, second fastest of 74) last week and is cozily drawn outside. All three should be include in rolling exotic play.

RACE 10: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Antithetical; 8-City Rage

Forecast: City Rage was nosed out in a similar starter allowance turf miler at Del Mar last time out and nothing much more will required to beat this field with F. Prat staying aboard. His only prior victory came over this course and distance so there should be no excuses today. Antithetical probably is worth including as a backup on your rolling exotic ticket. The S. Miyadi-trained gelding was a troubled dead-heat third in a hot, productive race last time out that produced a career top speed figure. He may be most effective if held up early and allowed to produce a late run and if ridden that way should have dead aim from the quarter pole to the wire.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:40 PT Grade: C+

Use: 1-Kylemore; 4-Nowhere Man; 5-Mad At Money: 6-Baby Frankie

Forecast: This restricted $8,000 claiming miler looks completely wide open, so best advice is to use as many as you can afford. We’ll go four-deep and hope to get a decent price home. Kylemore drops to his lowest level ever for new trainer M. Lenzini and projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip from his rail draw. A repeat of his race before last – third when beaten less than a length at Del Mar in an open $12,500 seller – is good enough to beat this field. Nowhere Man has won twice over the Tapeta surface and does his best work when on near the lead throughout. If not respected he can take this field a long way. Mad At Money is a deep closer that has been racing on grass of late but he’s won on this surface in the past and is dropping back to his claim level while being reunited with “win rider” I. Orozco. Baby Frankie won from a lesser $5,000 field last month with a pretty good speed figure and was claimed by J. Martin, who’s always been a high percentage conditioner with cheaper stock. The Super Saver gelding has a good stalking style and really won’t have to improve much to score right back.