Log In

Saturday, October 10: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 10, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Star Sailor; 7-Gator Shining

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Star Sailor has been preparing for his debut at Los Alamitos so he’s “out of sight, out of mind” with regards to workout evaluations, but the son of Union Rags did bring $275,000 as a yearling so he’s obviously an attractive individual and highly-regarded. The J. Sadler barn has solid stats with first-timer starters, many of whom run better than their a.m. times might indicate, so with “go to” jockey U. Rispoli taking the call let’s put him on top in this maiden special weight sprint on grass for juveniles. Gator Shining, a $45,000 purchase at the OBS April sale where he previewed very nicely in :21 2/5 under mild urging only, ships up from San Luis Rey Downs for R. Baltas, another trainer that has good stats with debut runners. The son of Noble Mission certainly is bred for grass, so at 4-1 on the morning line he has to be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-Big Mama Sue

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Big Mama Sue showed some moxie in her debut in late July at Del Mar, lacking early speed but then finishing strongly but too late before galloping out in front in a highly-rated maiden claiming dash. She was subsequently scratched a few weeks later so this will be her first outing in about 10 weeks, but her recent work tab looks healthy and at this extended sprint trip in a five-runner affair the daughter of Mr. Big should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Additionally, the P. Aguirre-trained filly is comfortably drawn outside and makes a favorable jockey switch to J. J. Hernandez, so as the co-second choice at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Flat Out Joy

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Flat Out Joy is listed at 4/5 on the morning line in this $40,000 maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, and while there’s no value at that price the R. Ellis-trained 4-year-old really has little to beat. This will be her second start off a long layoff – she appeared to be a short horse when fourth in straight maiden company at Del Mar in August – and with that race under her belt coupled with a warranted class drop into a seller she really shouldn’t miss the opportunity. It a race that we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll make the daughter of Flat a short-priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Over Attracted; 7-Leggs Galore; 8-Dulce

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: We’ll spread the first leg of the Pick-6, a state-bred first-level allowance grass sprint for fillies and mares. Leggs Galore has improved dramatically since switching to turf and looks well-placed for another major effort after breaking her maiden and beating state-bred foes in a pair of solid performances at Del Mar. This is an open affair and clearly is a step up in class, but the lightly-raced daughter of Bayern is solid in the speed figure department and shows two recent bullet workouts over the local training track to have her on edge. Dulce, comfortably placed outside and likely to draft into a good stalking position, won her debut at Del Mar and then saw her Beyer speed figure improve 13 points when finishing a willing third vs. similar last month, both of those starts sprinting on grass. The daughter of Twirling Candy gets an extra half furlong to work with and should be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. Over Attracted is winless in three starts since being imported from France but she’s from a top flight barn, switches to top grass jockey U. Rispoli, and sports the always dangerous route to sprint angle along with a recent bullet workout. Look for the Kentucky-bred daughter of Atreides to be a dangerous late factor.

RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Miss Bennet; 6-Daniel the Dreamer

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares drew just six starters; we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Miss Bennet, now in the N. French barn, adds blinkers for the first time and turns back from a couple route-races, so it’ll be interesting to see how she performs. On the positive side, her only victory was accomplished sprinting over the Santa Anita main track – yes, it almost two years ago – so maybe under these conditions she can snap to life. At 5-1 on the morning line and in a short field she looks to be worth a bit of a gamble at that price. Daniel the Dreamer, a dangerous shipper from Golden Gate Fields, makes her first start since being claimed by J. Wong (an astounding 35% with this angle) while returning to conventional dirt. Her runner-up effort over the Pleasanton main track two races back charts well with these, and with R. Gonzalez taking the call (34% with a powerful ROI with this barn) she’s the one to beat as the 2-1 morning line favorite.

RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Miss Megan; 4-A Melis; 8-Hotitude

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: This is a split of the fourth race, a state-bred grass sprint for fillies and mares. Miss Megan has been away since February but when last seen she was winning a similar affair on dirt and based on pedigree there’s no reason she can’t be just as effective on grass. There’s nothing flashy about her recent work tab, but at least it’s healthy and she does hail from a barn that is solid with comebackers, so let’s put her slightly on top at 5/2 on the morning line. Hotitude earned a career top number when third sprinting on grass at Del Mar in August and with another forward move today should be in the fray throughout. Given the moderate projected pace flow, the K. Mulhall-trained filly projects be on or near the lead throughout and have every chance. A Melis certainly is a major player despite a nearly two month layoff following a modestly-rated two-turn maiden win at Del Mar. Actually, she might be just as good if not better sprinting but will be making her first start on grass. If she can transfer her dirt form to the lawn, she’ll be right there.

RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Brittle and Yoo; 3-Lady On Ice

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Five fillies and mares meet in this six furlong main track starter’s allowance affair with morning line favoritism (at 9/5) going to Brittle and Yoo. The daughter of Include returns to dirt (her preferred surface) after finishing third in a pair of grass dashes at Del Mar, and if she can negotiate a decent stalking trip from the rail the J. Sadler-trained filly should be capable of producing a winning late bid. Lady On Ice could find herself as the controlling speed in a race that projects to have a soft opening quarter mile. After breaking her maiden by more than five lengths in just her second career start last month at Del Mar, the R. Baltas-trained daughter of Archarcharch certainly has a room for further improvement, and with three nice drills in the interim she’s probably the one to fear most. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Brittle and Yoo.

RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 1-Nardini; 4-Just Grazed Me

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Just Grazed Me won last year’s renewal of the California Distaff H. but it’s a question whether she’s as good now and she was in 2019. The veteran mare went a bit stale last spring and was stopped on, but with more than four months off she could easily fire a big shot fresh. The work tab looks moderate but DRF reports that she had a sharp unrecorded drill last weekend, going five furlongs in company in 1:00 flat. Far superior to her rivals if she shows up with anything close to her best stuff, the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Grazen is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. Bay Area shipper Nardini is lightly-raced, improving, and probably most effective as a late-running turf sprinter. She’ll need another significant forward move to win at this level but may have it in her, especially in a small field from a favorable inside draw, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll include her in our rolling exotics.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B-

Use: 3-Great Ulysses; 6-Pour On the Cole; 7-Boyson

Forecast: Southern California shipper Great Ulysses drops sharply in class and may have found his proper level in this restricted (nw-2) $12,5000 claimer over a mile. The Union Rags colt, who broke his maiden at first asking around two-turns at Indiana Downs, has sprinted in his last three outings and should be sharp on the stretch out in a race that he projects as the controlling speed. He may be worth a gamble at 10-1 on the morning line. Also worth including in your rolling exotics are Pour On the Cole, who is re-equipped with blinkers in his first-off-the-claim for J. Wong (an amazing 35% with this angle) and Boyson, a dangerous deep closer with good form over the local all-weather surface.

RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4
Use: 2-Master Recovery; 3-Full Draw

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Full Draw, back sprinting, back on dirt, and finding weak band of bottom-rung maiden claimers, looks well-placed to earn his diploma as the logical 9/5 morning line favorite. The J. Sadler-trained gelding turned in a sharp recent five furlong workout (1:00 1/5) to have him right on edge, and with just four starts on his resume the son of Union Rags certainly has more right to step forward than most of the others in the field. Master Recovery removes blinkers in his first start since being gelded and could leave his previous form behind his first outing since June. The 3-year-old son of Bodemeister has been routing most of this career and has earned reasonably competitive speed figures for this level so with the drop back in trip he’s worth consideration at 6-1 on the morning line.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:10 PT Grade: B

Use: 1-Gambini; 3-Kenjilookslucky

Forecast: Del Mar shipper Gambini drops into a claimer for the first time and has recent speed figures that are better than par for this maiden $20,000 level. He’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from his inside draw and should be able to produce a winning late bid. Kenjilookslucky returned off a long layoff at Del Mar in maiden $20,000 sprint last month and was always far back, but the Lookin At Lucky gelding stretches out to what should be a much more comfortable distance while removing blinkers, so there’s reason to believe he’ll run considerably better in this spot. His only other outing – a straight maiden turf miler try at Ellis Park last year, wasn’t really all that bad. The C. Dollase-trained 3-year-old is a “must use” at 15-1 on the morning line.