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Monday, October 12: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 12, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Freedom Flyer; 4-May to My Heart

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Freedom Flyer ran considerably better than the line will show in her debut when a troubled fifth in a similar turf sprint for maiden juvenile fillies at Del Mar last month and seems sure to improve a bunch for a barn that has exceptional stats with second time starters. She’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip from her rail post and with clear sailing through the lane should be able to produce a winning late bid. May to My Heart actually earned a better speed figure than ‘Flyer when finishing a close third sprinting on grass in late August at Del Mar and is another that is likely to benefit significantly from that bit of experience. Though we suspect ‘Flyer has more upside, this daughter of Liam’s Map probably is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz a Unicorn; 5-True Mischief

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Trainer R. Baltas has this race surrounded with the two main players in a five-runner affair. Tiz a Unicorn has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and seems very likely to improve significantly in her first two-turn outing. Her sprint form isn’t much, but she continues to train like she has some ability and a little will go a long way in this modest maiden claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. We’re projected her to draft into a cozy stalking position in this five-runner event and have every chance to kick home from the top of the lane to the wire. Her stable mate, True Mischief, is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. In the frame in her last pair including a career top effort when third under these conditions at Del Mar in August, the daughter of Into Mischief shows a healthy work tab since raced and projects to be on the lead or in a cozy stalking spot outside.

RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-From the Get Go; 5-Superduty Justice

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: This maiden $32,000 juvenile sprint drew five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the L. Mendez barn. The better of the two we suspect is Superduty Justice, comfortably drawn outside and sporting a relatively short but solid work tab that includes a bullet half mile drill (4f, :48hg, fastest of 28) five days ago that we assume was accomplished in company with From the Get Go (same time). The latter was entered but scratched yesterday in a maiden $50,000 2-year-old sprint for this softer spot primarily to ensure the race filled. He’s trained okay, certainly well enough to be considered a contender, so in a race that we’ll otherwise pass we’ll include both in rolling exotic play and then press with Superduty Justice on top.

RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Single: 9-Astute

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Astute has trained like a very nice prospect for R. Mandella and appears well-spotted to win at first asking in this abbreviated turf sprint for juvenile fillies. She’s a daughter of Speightstown and therefore bred to excel on grass, and all of her recent drills indicate she’s plenty fit and ready. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Caymans Cobra; 5-Colosi

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Caymans Cobra is re-equipped with blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming main track miler for older horses. A two-time winner at Santa Anita, he’s likely to obtain his coveted pace-pressing/forcing trip so we’re expecting the R. Baltas-trained gelding to rebound with a top try. Colosi is unproven on the main track but removes blinkers and drops sharply in class, so it seems likely the City Zip gelding will be a major factor from off the pace. He’s reunited with “win rider” T. Baze and sports a healthy work pattern since raced. We’ll prefer ‘Cobra on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Tilted Towers; 2-Grit and Curiosity

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this second-level allowance turf sprint, with Grit and Curiosity exiting the best race and deserving of top billing. A respectable third in the Eddie D. S.-G3 last month and with recent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Tough on any surface but never off the board in three career outings on grass, the son of Macho Uno is logically listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Tilted Towers, lightly-raced and improving with each outing, is moving up from an entry-level allowance grass dash while seeking his third straight win and should be close up throughout with a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. He’ll need to step forward again but could have it in him. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B- (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 3-Carpe Victoriam; 4-Race Home

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Carpe Victoriam drops to a realistic level, gets a break in the weights, and returns to his preferred surface (dirt) in this $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. A repeat of his strong runner-up try at Churchill Downs (out of which he was claimed for $40,000 by J. Sadler) should be sufficient to handle this assignment. Race Home is another class dropper likely to improve in this league. Not quite as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but turning back to a sprint (his best trip), the M. Ortiz-trained gelding should settle into a second flight, stalking spot and then have dead aim when it counts. Preference on top goes to Carpe Victoriam but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anna Lisa; 7-Marilyn’s Smile

Forecast: Anna Lisa ran very well over this course and distance two races back when winding up a game second after a three-wide pace pressing trip and then went to Los Alamitos for an easy mixed-breed, confidence building score last month. Always genuine and consistent (first or second in nine of 16 starts), she figures to fire another big shot today. Marilyn’s Smile is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and will be hard to deny if she returns as well as she left. Away for 11 months, the daughter of Smiling Tiger hails from the T. McCanna barn (excellent stats with layoff runners), shows a steady series of works, and has finished first or second in four of five career outings over the Golden Gate Fields lawn. She’ll be rolling late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Afleeting Life; 8-Invictatatus

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Invictatatus drops from straight maidens into a below-average maiden $50,000 turf miler and though beaten as the favorite sprinting on dirt last time out should produce his best effort under these conditions against this modest group. The son of Strong Mandate continues to impress in the a.m. and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field lacking in early speed (and late speed, too for that matter). Afleeting Life has been away for more than a year and returns in a logical spot with blinkers off and a series of strong, healthy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a low profile outfit. If ready, he absolutely can act with these, is the one to fear most and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Billtown Banner

Forecast: Low-level ($5,000) maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. Billtown Banner appears to have much in his favor and can be considered as a possible single for those with limited budgets. He drops to the bottom rung for the first time, stretches out after a series of sprints that earned decent speed figures, and hails from a high-percentage outfit. Yes, he’s unproven around two-turn but against this group there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle the extra distance. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 3-1.