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Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 16 Stronach 5 Play

by Brian Nadeau

October 14, 2020

Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, after hitting for $256 on the $16 backup ticket last week, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass 

that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***

Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:58 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 7 � furlongs (turf)

We kick off what will be a very unorthodox sequence, so you’ll have to bear with me a bit, as there will be some bobbing and weaving going on. I’m singling #1 GUACO (5-2) to kick it off, as he drew far better than his key rivals, and will run on the turf for the first time since the Kopaj claim, which says to me he’s going to be better than the 4th on the grass two-back, and even that run might win this.

Pk5 A horses: 1 (listed in order of preference)

The unorthodox part enters the building on the B-level, as I’m going to use several, which will cause me to have to narrow down to some Super A’s later in the sequence (see below). The second-level contenders are tough to separate, so I’ll just blanket them and use #10 Derby Codde (10-1), #3 Elbrus (12-1), #4 Initforthelove (20-1), #11 Cuy (5-1), and #9 Bomoseen (8-1).

Pk5 B horses: 10,3,4,11,9

*** The Super A’s are as follows ***

Leg 2: #4 Noble Way
Leg 5: #2 Homegrown

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 2: Laurel Park Race 7 (4:18 ET) – 3up 25k SAL at 6 furlongs

Many may be singling #4 Noble Way (9-5), who wins this for fun if he runs back to his last, but he hasn’t been out since that big win in January, and it was in the slop too, and his two fast track runs weren’t as sharp, so I’m picking him on top, but I’m not singling him either. I’m reaching a bit with #1 Tastes Like Plaid (12-1), who rises in class, but the N2L win last time was sharp, and he can settle off what looks like a contested pace too, so just maybe he can handle this tougher group. The cutback might work in the favor of #3 Marden (6-1), who has been running long with middling success, but is another who should settle and make a run into all the speed.

Pk5 A horses: 4,1,3

I’m probably using a few too many on the top line, so there will be no backups here.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #2 Revolutionary Road (8-1), #5 Seven on the Rocks (9-2)

Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (5:02 ET) – 3upfm 10k MCL at 1 mile

It’s going to be tough to get around #6 Thunderinthevalley (9-5), who simply looks better than a very suspect group, was just 2nd to a rousing winner, and well clear of 3rd, who is back in today and one of his “main” rivals.

Pk5 A horses: 6

I’m going to save a few bullets and not use any backups, since #4 Why Not You (8-1) just isn’t consistent enough to use, and the aforementioned “main” rival, #8 My Souper Sally (5-1) just lost easily to ‘Thunder and really has no viable reason why he would bridge the gap, let alone overturn it.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #4 Why Not You (8-1), #8 My Souper Sally (5-1)

Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 4 (5:08 ET) – 2yo Cal-bred MSW at 5 � furlongs (turf)

With the proven runners not showing much, and the firsters a seemingly mixed bag, I’ll spread deep here and use every that looks logical; #5 That Corey (3-1), who has Reddam’s stable jock Gutierrez, a potentially big deal because O’Neill and Reddam have #10 here too; #4 Lil Nas (5-2), who keeps Prat after dueling and tiring on debut on the dirt; #8 The Chosen Vron (6-1), who lures Van Dyke; #6 Circleofchampions (5-1), with Rispoli riding a firster for Gaines (enough said); and #7 By Moonlight (5-1), a good 3rd on debut in an open MCL on the dirt.

Pk5 A horses: 5,4,8,6,7

I’d like to think I’ve got all the bases covered with the five-pack above, so there will be no backups.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:51 ET) – 2yo 12.5k MCL at 1 mile

Budget players will be singling #2 Homegrown (9-5), who’s 2nd last time is a month the best here, but that was sprinting, and there are a few others who can make the big second-race improvement, so I’ll only single him on the Leg 1 backup ticket. The second-race improvement angle could work for #3 Ynot Tony (8-1) and #8 Autism Siblings (5-1), who both stretch out and drop out of an MSW, and #5 Autism Savant (3-1), who dueled and tired on debut and could shake loose going longer.

Pk5 A horses: 2,3,8,5

No one else has much appeal, so let’s stick with the quartet above and call it a day.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: NONE

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 1 with 4,3,1 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2,3,8,5 =$60
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,3,4,11,9 with 4 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2 = $25