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1/ST INDEX Maryland Million Full-Card Picks

by Jeremy Plonk

October 23, 2020

The Maryland Jockey Club at Laurel Park hosts the 35th annual Jim McKay Maryland Million on Saturday. The celebration of the state’s racing and breeding program features a dozen championship races across all divisions. Whether you’re a regular to the circuit or dropping by for the Maryland Million card, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the Maryland Million.

Race 1 (11:25AM ET) // MD Million Turf Distaff Starter Handicap // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

#11 // Firth (2/1) // 23% Win
#6 // Polished Gal (12/1) // 14% Win
#7 // Who U Gonna Call (12/1) // 13%
#4 // Wowwhatabrat (6/1) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Favorite Firth has a tough post and the 1-1/8 miles distance may be farther than she wants to go, but she matches up well with this particular group. Polished Gal is a sprinter stretching out. Who U Gonna Call may be best-suited for the long trip, but is stepping way up in class as a non-winner of 3. This race looks tricky and is a pick five spread for me.

Race 2 (11:56AM ET) // MD Million Distaff Starter Handicap // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

#3 // I Love You (3/1) // 35% Win
#1 // Odd Gal (3/5) // 19% Win
#6 // Calypso Ghost (4/1) // 19% Win
#5 // Silver Sides (15/1) // 13% Win

Jeremy’s Take: The 35% rate is highest on the card and the 19-point spread second-highest all day. But surprisingly it’s not in the favor of the 3-5 morning line favorite, Odd Gal. I Love You has the local experience over the chalk. Expect these two to go at it from the start and consider both for the multi-race bets. But intra-race, the algorithm is clear on the one that possesses the best value.

Race 3 (12:28PM ET) // MD Million Ladies // 1 1/8 Mile (Turf)

#10 // No Mo Lady (1/2) (AE) // 23% Win
#7 // Little Lion Girl (15/1) // 14% Win
#2 // Breviary (6/1) // 13% Win
#6 // Redeem My Heart (4/1) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: No Mo Lady will need a couple of scratches to draw into the race by the Maryland Million rules. Without her, it’s wide open and Little Lion Girl at 15-1 morning line tries long on the turf for the first time, adds Lasix and is second-off-the-layoff, all handicapping angles players like. There are few known turf route commodities in this race, so why not take a shot?

Race 4 (1:01PM ET) // MD Million Lassie // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

#7 // Trip to Freedom (2/1) // 31% Win
#4 // Street Lute (5/2) // 19% Win
#9 // Buckey’s Charm (15/1) (AE) // 11% Win
#8 // Miss Nondescript (4/1) // 10% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Trip to Freedom didn’t beat much in her debut, but did it the right way. Quite an unveiling for a $1,000 purchase. Despite the 1/ST INDEX 12-point spread, Street Lute clearly looks the horse to beat from this eye. Veteran trainer Jerry Robb’s horses have been running very well of late. Very surprised if it’s not one of these two, with maiden Closertotheheart interesting for exotics.

Race 5 (1:34PM ET) // MD Million Starter Handicap // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

#7 // V.I.P. Code (7/5) // 30% Win
#11 // Crush It (9/2) // 13% Win
#8 // No More Talk (8/1) // 13% Win
#1 // Odds On (8/1) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: The 17-point spread is the highest on the Maryland Million Day program. Those looking at multi-race wagers likely will be singling the 7-5 morning line favorite V.I.P. Code and it’s a rational approach that I endorse.

Race 6 (2:07PM ET) // MD Million Turf Sprint // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

#9 // Fiya (6/5) // 31% Win
#8 // Love You Much (6/1) // 18% Win
#4 // So Street (6/1) // 13% Win
#10 // Stroll Smokin (15/1) (AE) // 12% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Fiya has been awesome in his last few and finds a perfect spot for her stakes debut. Think you’ll see him at a far shorter price than 6-5 even as a 3-year-old against elders. Fellow sophomore So Street is the biggest threat and likely completes the exacta.

Race 7 (2:39PM ET) // MD Million Nursery // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

#15 // Jaxon Traveler (7/5) (AE) // 30% Win
#14 // Singlino (7/2) (AE) // 17% Win
#7 // Sky’s Not Falling (3/1) // 10% Win
#4 // Alwaysinahurry (6/1) // 8% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Almost certainty the top two here will scratch given the conditions of the Maryland Million selection process. Skysnotfalling has taken his track with him, racing at Laurel for the first time and marking 6 different venues in 6 races. Alwaysinahurry put it together last time and returns to Laurel. Longshot Ain’t Da Beer Cold is working like he might bounce back after something went wrong at Monmouth last time.

Race 8 (3:12PM ET) // MD Million Distaff // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

#5 // Artful Splatter (5/1) // 29% Win
#11 // Project Whiskey (9/2) (AE) // 12% Win
#6 // Hello Beautiful (1/1) // 12% Win
#4 // Las Setas (20/1) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: The 1/ST INDEX takes a shot against the heavy chalk Hello Beautiful, last year’s Lassie winner who is 4-for-4 at Laurel Park. There is a lot of early pace in the Distaff and those up front will have to work for it. Artful Splatter turns back from routes and might find herself in a beautiful spot behind the duelers and with stamina from her recent races. Late-running Coconut Cake has continued to impress.

Race 9 (3:45PM ET) // MD Million Turf // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

#9 // Nick Papagiorgio (7/2) // 20% Win
#4 // Mr. d’Angelo (9/2) // 13% Win
#12 // Cannon’s Roar (9/2) // 12% Win
#6 // Somekindofmagician (5/1) // 8% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Defending Turf winner Mr. d’Angelo is second choice in the 1/ST INDEX. Nick Papagiorgio makes sense as the most logical to dethrone him if it’s in the cards. He’s a nose away from winning 6 straight races. These 2 give you the early-late combo that’s often perfect for a 2-deep scenario in multi-race bets.

Race 10 (4:20PM ET) // MD Million Sprint // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

#11 // Eastern Bay (8/5) (AE) // 30% Win
#12 // Whereshetoldmetogo (5/2) (AE) // 18% Win
#10 // Let’s Play Nine (5/1) // 10% Win
#14 // Taco Supream (4/1) (AE) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Let’s Play Nine is the most likely starter among the 1/ST INDEX selections based on the conditions of the Maryland Million field-selection process. The others would need several scratches. Let’s Play Nine is a half-length shy of having a perfect, 4-for-4 record. Veteran Lewsfield has disappointed in both races this year after a long break and may be over-bet, helping prices on others.

Race 11 (4:53PM ET) // MD Million Classic // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

#5 // Harper’s First Ride (8/5) // 29% Win
#4 // Cordmaker (4/1) // 18% Win
#3 // Monday Morning Qb (5/1) // 18% Win
#7 // Top Line Growth (2/1) // 12% Win

Jeremy’s Take: I saw this race exactly the same as the 1/ST INDEX in my Xpressbet Race of the Week write-up. There’s a sizable weight shift in Cordmaker’s favorite compared to the Pimlico Special that might make these two a closer Saturday than last time.

Race 12 (5:26PM ET) // MD Million Turf Starter Handicap // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

#6 // Belfour (3/1) // 19% Win
#8 // Martini Kid (6/1) // 12% Win
#3 // Rule Yourself (6/1) // 11% Win
#11 // Beltway Bob (15/1) // 8% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Belfour had won 3 in a row before the wheels came off at Pimlico last time and he was eased at 3-10 odds. He’s never won on turf, and I can’t take short odds on those variables. I’ll offer up a 12-1 longshot Barin, who won this race in 2018 at 23-1 and was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths in it last year at 33-1.