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Sunday, October 25: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 25, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bud Knight; 3-Table for Ten

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Forecast: Table for Ten is steadily improving, and while he lacks a true turn of foot his late-running, grinding style should be well-suited for this mile and one-quarter turf distance. F. Prat stays aboard and will have him within range from the head of the lane to the wire. Bud Knight is similar to our top pick in that he doesn’t blast home but instead usually produces a steady late bid. He’s another that may truly appreciated today’s longer trip. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Table for Ten on top.

RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-With Due Cause; 7-Acting Cat

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Forecast: Acting Cat shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and appears to have found his friends. The Tale of the Cat gelding also will be making his dirt debut, and after a nice recent blowout over the main track he appears capable of handling the switch in surface against this modest group. Gate-to-wire tactics surely will be employed. With Due Cause drops to the bottom and should be capable of producing some type of late kick. Usually sluggish from the gate but with speed figures that make him a fit in this league, the son of Creative Cause might find this abbreviated sprint trip a bit sharp but nonetheless is worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.

RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Awesome Drive; 6-Hollywood Girl

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Forecast: Hollywood Girl closed relentlessly off slow fractions to just miss in a similar first-level allowance turf affair in August at Del Mar while earning a career top speed figure and today gets nine furlongs to work. The Giant’s Causeway filly retains M. Smith, and while the pace scenario looks soft she should enjoy clear sailing and every chance in the six-runner affair. Awesome Drive, an ex-maiden claimer, continued her improving pattern when a strong third in a fast miler last month. She’s another with a decent late kick that should be effective at this mile and one-eighth journey. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Hollywood Girl on top.

RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Mon Camo

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Forecast: Bay Area shipper Mon Camo drops well below his claim level for a high percentage outfit, returns to what might be his preferred surface (dirt) and brings with him speed figures that are better than par for this $12,500 claiming level. The barn’s “go-to” rider A. Cedillo picks up the mount and should have this veteran gelding within striking range throughout with a ground-saving trip. Several of these exit the race that Black Storm won and they’re hard to separate, so let’s take a stand and single ‘Camo and use him in the win pool at or near his morning line of 4-1.

RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-One Bad Boy; 4-Murad Khan

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Forecast: Last year’s Queen’s Plate winner One Bad Boy was given a run in his first ssteart off a long layoff when facing a similar field at Del Mar in late August, but with regular rider F. Prat back aboard today we’re expecting a much more serious effort from the R. Baltas-trained son of Twirling Candy. Always most comfortable when on or near the lead but inexplicably allowed to drop far off the pace last time out, the 4-year-old ridgling seems certain to be in the first flight throughout and then have his chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on. Though the main push goes to One Bad Boy, you may want to have a ticket or two that also includes Murad Khan, a genuine, consistent, and prototype turf miler with a solid late kick.

RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-Desert Smoke; 5-Destiny’s Journey

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Forecast: We’ll use the two listed above in our rolling exotics but in a chaotic affair that could be won by any of the nine entrants, the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Destiny’s Journey seeks her third straight score but was a voided claim for $16,000 in her victory more than two months ago and today shows up in a $10,000 event, hardly a healthy pattern. Additionally, the S. Knapp-trained filly is a need-the-lead type, but with the presence of speedy Desert Smoke drawn inside she may be related to a stalker’s role. She can win, but she can lose, too. ‘Smoke has won over this main track in the past, has numbers up north that make her dangerous and picks up F. Prat. In a field in which the closers are suspect, she might make the running and get very brave. There are lots of question marks in this race, so tread lightly.

RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Concise Advice; 7-Dr Wysong

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Forecast: Concise Advice walked out of the gate and never had much chance in her first start in more than a year at Del Mar in August, so let’s draw a line through that race and give her another chance in this first-level allowance grass sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Slew’s Tiznow had won her debut sprinting on grass as a 2-year-old so she does have ability, and recent workouts indicate the M. Puype-trained filly is set to show her best stuff. There’s good value at 8-1 on the morning line both in the win pool and in the rolling exotics. Dr Wysong, first off the claim for high percentage trainer I. Tamayo (a sensational 34% with this angle) has a good closing kick and will be rolling late over a course and distance that promotes her style. With room to rally and a decent pace to chase the daughter of Cyclotron will be heard from late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Concise Advice on top.

RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rain Diva; 3-Time for Ebby

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Forecast: Rain Diva got loose on the lead and crushed a softer group of restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers over this track and distance earlier this month, and if she can turn in two alike the M. Glatt-trained filly can be dangerous right back despite the class hike. The race lacks speed, so if the daughter of Temple City breaks running from the rail and can clear early she may never look back. Time for Ebby has five prior victories of the Santa Anita main track and may be the best of the closers. She’s back on the main track, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and will be a threat if the pace flow cooperates. Preference on top goes to Rain Diva but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Maxim Rate; 3-Raymundos Secret

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Forecast: Raymundos Secret managed to win the Mabee S.-G2 in gate-to-wire fashion in her last start, though she barely found enough late energy to hang on at a mile and one-eighth. She’s much more comfortable at today’s mile trip (she’s 4-for-5), so given the projected pace flow the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Treasure Beach should be capable of grabbing control early and then staying on throughout. Maxim Rate, a strong runner-up in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 at a mile and one-quarter last month, is dangerous at any distance but can be especially difficult to beat over a flat mile on grass, having won three of her six starts at this trip. She’s certain to draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim on Raymundos Secret from the top of the stretch to the wire. We’ll give ‘Secret a slight edge on top but truthfully they’re very difficult to separate and both must be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Single: 3-Jamming Eddy

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Forecast: Jamming Eddy seeks his third straight win, and while he’s returning to dirt after a pair of sharp victories on grass he’s equally effective on any surface and seems well-placed to extend his streak. The Square Eddie gelding likes to settle in the second flight and blast home, and with regular rider F. Prat staying aboard the P. Miller-trained Cal-bred should find a proper early position and then build from there. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic play.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:15 PT Grade: B-

Use: 10-Sing in the Wind; 2-Legalito; 8-Lotsa Pepper

Forecast: Sing in the Wind is most effective as a late-running sprinter and in a race that should have faster-than-par early fractions the veteran mare seems likely to have every opportunity to settle early and produce the last run. Legalita won at first asking with a decent speed figure earlier this month and should be competitive on the raise. The daughter of Gotham City likely will be outrun early but the projected quicker-than-par early pace should complement her style, so at 8-1 on the morning there may be good value to be found. Lotsa Pepper is unbeaten in two starts and has rising speed figures, but both of her victories came over five furlongs on turf and today she’ll need to carry her zip three-quarters on the all-weather surface.

RACE 11: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-This Tea; 4-Disappearing Act

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Forecast: This Tea has rising speed figures and a pedigree that strongly suggests she’ll improve considerably as the distances increase. The daughter of Curlin is drawn comfortably inside, adds blinkers for the first time, switches to F. Prat, and catches a modest field of older maiden fillies and mares. We’ll put her strongly on top but as a back-up include Disappearing Act on our rolling exotic tickets. As a daughter of Magician she’s bred to love this 10-furlong trip and with improving form and a steady, grinding late kick she’s likely to make her presence felt in the final quarter mile.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 10: Post 5:45 PT Grade: B

Single: 4-Blue Jays

Forecast: Blue Jays, away for almost 11 months, returns in a winnable spot following a series of good workouts at Santa Anita that should have him fit and ready. The K. Desormeaux-trained colt is facing considerably easier company than he saw in his first two starts and we’re expecting the son of Street Sense to take full advantage of the opportunity. At 9/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.