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Jeff Siegel's Keeneland Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Friday, Nov 6

by Jeff Siegel

November 6, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Highly Motivated; 6-Quick Tempo

Forecast: Quick Tempo added blinkers for the first time and returned to winning form with a gate-to-wire dominating score two weeks ago at Parx and today steps up in class with a speed figure that is good enough to win at this level. The son of Tapizar looks to be the quickest in the field and if he can clear early without undue pressure the C. Davis-trained juvenile may be very tough to catch. Highly Motivated has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, having just broken his maiden nicely from a second flight, stalking position at Belmont Park in late September. The C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has plenty of room for further development, so with a trouble-free trip from the rail he should heard from in the final furlong. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Quick Tempo on top.

RACE 2: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Single: 11-Farsighted

Forecast: Farsighted broke her maiden over the local main track last month with a visually pleasing effort and appears quite capable of winning on the raise in this listed stakes sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Bernardini kicked clear with authority to graduate over six furlongs by seven widening lengths while given every indication that today’s extra half-furlong will promote her stalking style. Three easy workouts since that race indicate she’s ready to step forward again, so at 5-1 on the morning line the G. Arnold-trained 2-year-old is worth a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-No Word; 5-Pixelate; 6-Fancy Liquor

Forecast: The Bryan Station Stakes, restricted to 3-year-olds over a mile and one-eighth, looks very much like a grass grab bag. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by but you may find the need to spread even deeper. No Wordfinished a strong second in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month while earning a career-top speed figure and not much more will be needed to land him in the winner’s circle. In a race that projects to be slowly run early the Silent Name colt has enough tactical speed to always be within range and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Pixelate won the Del Mar Derby-G2 two races back in excellent style and today is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. Fifth in the Belmont Derby when victimized by a wide trip and a lack of pace, the City Zip colt could easily bounce back today at a decent (8-1) price. Fancy Liquor picks up 4 lbs. following his game win in the American Turf S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in early September but today’s projected pace flow looks somewhat softer and we’re expecting the son of Looking At Lucky should have a relatively easy trip pressing or even establishing the pace. A winner of three of six career starts, the M. Maker-trained colt is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: J; 4-Into Chocolate; 7-Unholy Alliance

Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive affair, a six furlong listed stakes sprint for fillies and mares. Unholy Alliance was in a tad too tough when fourth in the Honorable Miss S.-G3 at Saratoga last time out but this group should be well within her capabilities. An overnight win at Saratoga two races back charts very well in this affair, and in a race that shouldn’t have fast early fractions the daughter of First Samurai projects to be within striking range throughout. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a square number. Into Chocolate, always most effective as a late-running sprinter, looked good winning the Chillingworth S.-G3 at Santa Anita in late September in a race that produced a career top speed figure and has trained quite well since to remain on edge. She’s reunited with J. Ortiz, who rode her to a win last summer at Belmont Park, and on paper appears much better than her morning line of 12-1 would indicate. These two will comprise our main punch in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Unholy Alliance.

RACE 5: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Single: 13-Cupid’s Claws

Forecast: Cupid’s Claws looked terrific winning a similar main track marathon at Santa Anita in late September, stalking the pace in hand and then quickening readily when turned loose heading for home. Primarily a turf or synthetic specialist throughout his career, the son of Kitten’s Joy may have found a home on conventional dirt and if he can turn in two alike he can win right back under F. Prat. He’s 5-1 on the morning line and offers excellent value at that price in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.

RACE 6: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: B+
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Use: 6-Ubettabelievit; 14-Golden Pal

Forecast: Prior to entries being drawn Golden Pal seemed like a logical rolling exotic single in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint S.-G1 and in fact projected as one of the most probable winners in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. That was before he drew 14 of 14 in this five and one-half furlong dash. Now what? Second in his first two outings – the first in a maiden dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park and the second (by a neck) in the Norfolk S.-G2 at Royal Ascot – the W. Ward-trained colt finally figured things out when trouncing a good field in the Skidmore S. at Saratoga in mid-August while looking very much like the top class turf sprinter that he was cut out to be. Winning geared down by more than three lengths while earning a powerful 92 Beyer speed figure, the son of Uncle Mo has been kept on edge with a healthy series of easy drills that should have him fit, fresh and ready. Yes, that post position is problematic and he’ll have to bust out and get over to avoid getting parked before the field hits the far turn, so at 8/5 on the morning line he can’t make an mistakes at the break.

For those looking for a tote-buster, consider the European invader Ubettabelieveit, a no-fluke 40-1 come-from-behind winner of the straightaway five furlong Flying Childers S.-G2 at Doncaster in mid-September in his most recent start. Interestingly, that performance garnered a 92 Timeform rating, the same figure that was assigned to Golden Pal in his Norfolk triumph. He’s 20-1 on the morning line. We’re going to try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just the two listed above.

RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Use: 1-Sealiway; 2-New Mandate; 6-Mutasaabeq; 9-Battleground; 12-Go Athletico

Forecast: This may be the most contentious race of the two-day Breeders’ Cup festival. We can pinpoint at least six major contenders and even a few others among the field of 14 that have a right to at least hit the board. The European contingent has strength in numbers and it would not be surprising to see the winner emerge from that group. Battleground, a War Front colt from 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Found, was beaten on debut when given a run in June at Naas but left that form far behind when winning both the listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and then the Vintage S.-G2 the following month at Goodwood. His Timeform numbers aren’t off the charts but they’re rising with each outing, and he has every right to be far superior now after three additional months of development and maturity. It should be noted that the layoff wasn’t necessarily by design, as a cough cost him a start in mid-September in the National S.-G1 at The Curragh. From the yard of A. O’Brian (a four-time winner of this race), he’s the most fancied price among those quoted by European bookmakers and is listed at 6-1 on the Keeneland morning line. He’ll offer excellent wagering value at or near that price.

Sealiway arrives following a thoroughly impressive eight-length victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Legardere-G1 on Arc day that was assigned a superior 105 Timeform Rating, but the performance, eye-catching as it may have been, was accomplished in a bog and may not be transferable to the Keeneland course, which may feel like top-of-the-ground in comparison. The French-bred colt certainly is not a one-hit wonder, as overall he’s been successful in four of six starts including a win in a listed stakes to go along with two other stakes placings, among them a strong runner-up effort in the Prix la Rochette-G3. With a good stalking style and the ability to accelerate, the F. Rossie-trained colt should be free and clear of most of the traffic and have every chance to show his best stuff when the pressure is turned on.

New Mandate is a progressive gelding that caught the eye winning the Royal Lodge S.-G2 over a testing straightaway mile at Newmarket in late September, settling early and then quickening impressively in the final stages. It was his third straight win from five career starts and was clearly his best; with another forward move (or at least a repeat of that performance) he’ll be right there.

Go Athletico, a winner over Sealiway in the Prix la Rochette-G2 and subsequently an excellent runner-up when sent to France in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffite-G2 at Chantilly, has never been worse that second and shows Timeform ratings that have risen with every one of his five career starts. Despite having low profile connections, he’s a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.

The North American group appears decent but hardly spectacular. You may feel the need to include (at least on a back-up ticket) Mutasaabeq the smart winner of the Bourbon S.-G2 over the course and distance at Keeneland last month after changing tactics from a pace-presser to a deep closer. Similar patient tactics surely will be employed again.

RACE 8: Post: 3:50 ET Grade: C
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Use: 1-Simply Ravishing; 2-Vequist; 3-Dayoutoftheoffice; 5-Girl Daddy; 7-Princess Noor

Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1 since saddling Indian Blessing to victory in 2007 – he’s had nine starters since - so when you evaluate the California-based Princess Noor it’s difficult to give her any extra credit for representing the winningest barn according to purse earnings in the BC history. Furthermore, her career top Equibase speed figure (96) would rank only 23 of 28 since the numbers were first published in 1992 and the 82 assigned to her most recent victory in the Chandelier S.-G2 would not have been good enough to win any edition of BC Juvenile Fillies during that time frame. So, what do you believe, the numbers, or your eyes? Admittedly, she has been beating substandard competition but the daughter of Not This Time, purchased for $1.35 million at the OBS April Sale, hasn’t yet been asked yet for anything close to her best according to the trainer, who says regular jockey V. Espinoza has been under instructions to win her races “by as little as possible, just like American Pharoah.” No such restrictions will be in place on the first Friday in November at Keeneland. In the meantime we can get a glimpse of her potential by watching her train, and it’s difficult to imagine any of her main rivals being more impressive during workouts leading up to the race that will determine divisional championship honors. The problem is she’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and at that price she’s probably not going to be offering any value.

Based strictly on speed figures Dayoutoftheoffice is considerably faster than the California invader, though she has yet to try two-turns and her pedigree (Into Mischief from an Indian Charlie mare) doesn’t guarantee that she’ll be just as effective running long as short. A one-turn mile victory in the Frizette S.-G1 was visually pleasing to be sure, as she switched off nicely while stalking the pace and then kicked clear when given her cue. The old handicapping axiom – even if they don’t want to route they will the first time they try it – certainly can be applied by those who believe she’s a cut above the rest, and she may very well be, which is why the T. Hamm-trained filly is strictly the one to beat.

Others in the race that deserve strong consideration include Simply Ravishing (perfect in three starts including a six length romp over this course and distance in the Alcibiades S.-G1 last month) and Girl Daddy (undefeated in two starts including the Pocahontas S.-G3 in smart style but trying two turns for the first time). Additionally, Vyquist, a clear second behind Dayoutoftheoffice in the Frizette with a less than ideal trip and before that a nine length winner of the Spinaway S.-G1, has every right to highly competitive.

Big ticket punters may find the need to spread deeply in this race, using each filly mentioned in this analysis somewhere on their rolling exotic tickets. That will be our strategy.

RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B-
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Use: 2-Miss Amulet; 4-Plum Ali; 5-Aunt Pearl; 10-Campanelle

Forecast: Aunt Pearl enters this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 unblemished, having won her debut at Saratoga in September by five widening lengths on the front end going long and then dominating gate-to-wire over this Keeneland course and distance when capturing the Jessamine S.-G2 the following month. She’s an Irish-bred with immense quality but today, with the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Campanelle is the field, most likely will be relegated to a stalker’s role, which won’t necessary be a bad thing since she hardly strikes us as a need-the-lead type. Already successful twice around two turns, she’ll have no distance concerns based on performance and pedigree but a contrarian would point out that her winning Equibase speed figure (96) in the Jessamine would be good enough to win only one of the previous 12 editions of this race. We’ll see how good she really is today.

Undefeated in three starts, a graded stakes winner at Royal Ascot and Deauville and easily the controlling speed if she wants to be, the W. Ward-trained Campanellecertainly will be tough to catch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 over a mile on grass if she rates kindly on the front end and exhibits the type of reserve energy that she displayed under pressure both in the Queen Mary S.-G2 and most recently in the Prix Morny-G1. The daughter of Kodiak has been away for 10 weeks but her healthy once-a-week work pattern over the same Keeneland turf course provides hope that she’ll see out the trip. If there is a concern, it’s that in her only previous non-straightaway performance – her five furlong debut sprint win at Gulfstream Park on turf – she was considerably late changing leads, and in her most recent workout she again didn’t switch over until approaching the wire. If she is sloppy on her leads again today, that final furlong could prove problematic.

Miss Amulet is a “must use” at her listed morning line price of 12-1. An excellent runner-up in the 6F Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket in late September and before that the winner of the 14-runner Lowther S.-G2 at York, she’s elevated her Timeform ratings in each of seven career starts and has proven to be thoroughly genuine. The issue is the trip – this will be her first try farther than seven furlongs and her first around a turn – but if she can switch off and settle behind Campanelle the daughter of Sir Prancealot (from an Oasis Dream mare) certainly has the pedigree to stay the mile.

Plum Ali is perfect in three starts, with two stakes wins on her resume that include the recent Miss Grillo S.-G2 last month at Belmont Park. She probably hasn’t beaten much yet and her numbers are nothing more than decent, but if the pace is contested her late-running style could make her dangerous, though we’d probably want more than her morning line of 4-1.

RACE 10: Post: 5:15 ET Grade: B
Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Use: 5-Essential Quality; 7-Jackie’s Warrior; 8-Classier

Forecast: It’s hard to get past Jackie’s Warrior, the undefeated two-time Grade-1 winner with rising speed figures in each of his four outings and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer fig when much best on the lead throughout in the 8F Champagne S.-G1 last month. This will be his first try around two turns, and as a son of Maclean’s Music there’s always going to be some doubt whether he’ll be just as dominating two-turning. In his debut he stalked, pounced, and drew off, so the option is available for J. Rosario to adjust if necessary depending upon the race flow, but having said that he’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics.

Stranger danger – and good long shot value - comes in the form of the B. Baffert-trained Classier, a debut sprint winner by daylight without ever being asked for anything close to his best less than two weeks ago at Santa Anita. A $775,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he’s being asked for a lot, but he may have upside that most of the others don’t and his pedigree suggests the longer they go the better he’ll like it. Whether he has the seasoning or the foundation to worry a proven top class colt like Jackie’s Warrior is at best problematic, but he’s 12-1 on the morning line and we’re going to assume that he wouldn’t been entered in the race unless his trainer thought he belonged.

Essential Quality is unbeaten in two starts and already has a Grade-1 win over this track and distance, having scored impressively in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 last month with comfortable stalking trip. The son of Tapit is a high-potential type from the B. Cox barn and a strong threat and a “must use.”