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Sunday, November 08: National Best Plays

by Jeff Siegel

November 8, 2020

Churchill Downs Fourth Race – Post time: 2:30 ET
1 – Idol (2-1)

Promising son of Curlin makes his first start around two turns after display good ability in a pair of strong maiden sprint races that produced very strong speed figures. After finishing a willing runner-up in debut, the R. Baltas-trained colt graduated in fine style while drawing off late to indicate more distance will fit him just fine. From an inside draw in a race without much early speed, he should have little difficulty scoring right back in this first-level allowance race. There’s value to be found at his morning line of 2-1 if you can get it.

Aqueduct Ninth Race – Post time: 3:47 ET
2 – Nova Rags (2-1)

Won at first asking after producing a strong late kick to be up in time in a highly-rated maiden sprint last month that should serve as an excellent springboard to this year’s edition of the Nashua Stakes, a one-turn mile graded affair for 2-year-olds. The son of Union Rags seems certain to improve with distance and experience, so we’ll make him a logical win play and rolling exotic single at or near his 2-1 morning line.

Del Mar – Fourth Race – Post time: 2:00 PT
4 – Affable (4-1)

First-timer in the M. Glatt brought $600,000 at the Timonium May Sale after breezing a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds, looked terrific doing so, and has recent drills that should have him primed and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. The son of Flatter attracts F. Prat and in an unclassified race with several newcomers seems like the one that’s most ready to win right now. There’s good value at his morning line price of 4-1 both in the win pool and as rolling exotic single.

Churchill Downs Tenth Race – Post time: 5:36 ET
10 – Silverbella (5/2)

Launches a comeback for a capable outfit after display significant ability in a pair of Oaklawn Park outings last spring and will make short work of this maiden sprint for fillies and mares if she returns as well as she left. The daughter of Tapizar was second in both starts, including her most recent start in April when she earned a powerful speed figure when runner-up to a next-out winner while seven lengths clear of the rest. The work tab should have her fit and ready, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’s looks like a very strong play.