by Brian Nadeau
November 12, 2020
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which has routinely handled well over 100k, and has a 100% carryover potential, should it go unhit. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:24 ET) – 2yo 40k MCL at 7 furlongs
We kick off a tricky sequence in the one race where I think you can take a stand, and my ticket needs me too, with the spreads coming up. So, with that being said, I’m singling #7 HELLO HOT ROD, who broke last from the rail on debut then flew home and just missed by a neck, with a figure that would win this easily, and now drew better and meets a crew there for the taking.
Pk5 A horses: 7 (listed in order of preference)
The rest are a mixed bag but there are a few who have some decent form, so I’ll back up with #2 DR. FERBER, a good 3rd against lesser on debut; #6 LADNEEDSAHANDLER, who has been flashing speed against MSW runners; #10 WOODCHUCK, a middling 5th on debut against MSWs on the Tapeta at PID; and #3 WHAT THE FLASH, who is lightly raced and exits the Maryland Nursery.
Pk5 B horses: 2,6,10,3 (Please note, to keep the cost of the backup ticket down I’ll be singling #11 Hoponthebusgus in Leg 4 and #1 Irenie in Leg 5)
Potential B add-ins: #9 Nordic Rhythm
Leg 2: Laurel Park R8 (3:54 ET) – 3up SAL (16k/8k) at 6 furlongs
Budget players will probably be singling #5 NOMO RUN, who looked good winning at the level off the Farrior claim and meets a relatively modest crew right back, and I do have him on top, but I’ll use one other in a race that looks very top heavy. That other is #7 SOUND OFF, who has been facing better at Del and holding his own, with plenty of figures that make him competitive with ‘Run, and there’s enough speed to set him up here too.
Pk5 A horses: 5,7
If you’re looking for a price you could land on #9 PHANTOM RO, who didn’t fire against better last time but had a good streak going before that, drew a nice attack post, and is 4-2-1-0 over the local oval as well.
Pk5 B horses: 9
Potential B add-ins: #6 Air On Fire, #3 Lawn Boy
Leg 3: Laurel Park R9 (4:24 ET) – 3up 10k MCL at about 1 1/16 miles
The first real toughie of the sequence has a group that looks very similar on paper, though the drop for #5 HINTING might be enough, as his last dirt run when 6th two-back would probably win this. The MSW drop of #7 STEPHANOPOULIS can’t hurt, and note he was going two turns at CT, while #8 NICKY BEAR really improved in his last two on turf but wasn’t terrible on dirt and might simply be a better horse now. I’ll also use #2 ELUSIVE MOTION, who goes for a potent Capuano barn, drew well, has tactical speed, and, if nothing else, has run two turns on the dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,7,8,2
You can argue #10 BOURBON AMIGO is the horse to beat, but a wide draw and 13-0-1-6 record just doesn’t entice, and he usually finds one or two better, which I think will be the case here too. on the flip side, #4 BRIGHTWOOD is just 0-for-3, adds blinkers, and now tries two turns, so he could wake up at a nice price.
Pk5 B horses: 10,4
Potential B add-ins:
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park West R9 (4:42 ET) – 3upfm 10k claimer at 1-mile (turf)
If #11 HOPONTHEBUSGUS—a Maker re-claim—had a better post I’d say she was an easy single, but this draw is a dreadful one, so I don’t want to lean on her too heavily on the main A tickets (though I’m singling her on the Leg 1 B backups). I’m also going to use #2 LADY NINA, who was just 2 lengths behind ‘Gus last time and drew much better, and she has the tactical speed to get first run too, which is magnified since the chalk might be forced very wide into both turns.
Pk5 A horses: 11,2
The only backup is #4 YAKO, who had a ton trouble when 6th behind the top pair the last time she ran on turf, and with a clean run that day she would have been a lot closer, though she still has a few lengths to make up regardless.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #5 La Incondicional, #7 Animauxselle
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R3 (4:45 ET) – 3upgm 10k MCL at 5 furlongs
It will be tough to get by #1 IRENIE, who returned from a 15-month layoff and was 2nd, beaten a nose, with some trouble while ahead of a few of these last time, though the rail is no bargain and she could regress off such a huge return, so you have to be a bit weary. I’m interested in #7 KENNA IS SPICY, who took the brunt of all the trouble behind Irenie last time, yet still rallied nicely to be 4th and would have been a lot closer with clear sailing, and will be a much better price here too.
Pk5 A horses: 1,7
If she can speed pop the field then #4 DESERT FOG is a player, but she also caused the trouble last time when 3rd (DQ’d to 4th) and still couldn’t hold on to a 3 1/2-length late lead, so if she couldn’t beat the 1 then, can she now, with some other speed to her outside too?
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #5 Crookhaven Lass, #2 Tale of Tears, #8 Unusual Dancer
Main Ticket: 7 with 5,7 with 5,7,8,2 with 11,2 with 1,7 = $32 (play for $2)
Leg 1 B Backup: 2,6,10,3 with 5,7 with 5,7,8,2 with 11 with 1 = $32
Leg 2 B Backup: 7 with 9 with 5,7,8,2 with 11,2 with 1,7 = $16
Leg 3 B Backup: 7 with 5,7 with 10,4 with 11,2 with 1,7 = $16
Leg 4 B Backup: 7 with 5,7 with 5,7,8,2 with 4 with 1,7 = $16
Leg 5 B Backup: 7 with 5,7 with 5,7,8,2 with 11,2 with 4 = $16