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Saturday, November 14: National Best Play

by Jeff Siegel

November 14, 2020

Aqueduct Third Race – Post time: 12:50 ET
6 – Crew Dragon (6-1)

As this is penned, we’re not sure if this maiden router for juveniles will remain on turf but on any surface (and assuming he runs) this W. Mott-trained colt should be set to earn his diploma. A closing third without being knocked about in a turf miler at Belmont Park in mid-September, the son of Exaggerator is bred to handle any surface (especially one that’s wet), shows a healthy work pattern since raced, retains J. Alvarado and goes for a barn that has solid stats with second-timers. There’s good value here at 6-1 on the morning line both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

Gulfstream Park West Seventh Race – Post time: 3:38 ET
4 – Real Talk (2-1)

Loved his maiden win and we’re expecting this son of Gemologist to successfully handle the class hike into stakes competition in this extended sprint for Florida-bred juveniles. In his debut the R. Nicks-trained colt raced in a pocket to the head of the lane, finally secured room and then drew off with complete authority while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this field. Bred to handle an off track should the situation dictate, he’s a solid play in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

Del Mar Third Race – Post time: 1:30 PT
3 – England’s Rose (4-1)

She’s bred to run long on turf (English Channel x Kris S.) and gets her chance after finishing like a freight train when fifth beaten three lengths in a dirt sprint debuting in August for a barn that has powerful stats with second-time starters. In her debut she fell far back early while resenting the kick back and appearing green but figured things out in the final quarter mile to close the gap before galloping out far in front. The work pattern looks good, so at 4-1 on the morning line in this mile event for fillies and mares there’s considerable value to be found.

Del Mar Seventh Race – Post time 3:30 PT
2 – One Flew South (4-1)

Returned from Dubai following an eight month layoff and performed admirably when rallying from last to finish a willing third in a similar first-level allowance sprint at Santa Anita, shows a bullet work since, and can be expected to produce a significant forward move. Picks up A. Cedillo, adds blinkers, and should have sufficient heat up front to compliment his late-running style. His style suggests he’ll need some luck along the way, but with a clear trip the son of Giant’s Causeway may produce the last run while offering value at or near his morning line of 4-1.